With 100 days until the 2012 election, President Obama has a tenuous lead, but the struggling economy hurts his bid for a second term.
Obama leads Mitt Romney by a narrow margin in most national polls, and has a slightly wider lead in most swing states, giving Romney little room for error. But while Obama continues to lead Romney in personal likability — a major asset — there are few signs that Obama’s sustained summer attack on Romney’s business background has changed the contours of the race.
The president, Romney and their allies have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on advertising since the general election campaign officially began, though neither side has been able to move the needle much.
Polls have been remarkably unchanged during that period. Obama leads Romney by slightly more than one percentage point nationally, according to Real Clear Politics’ average of the national polls. That is nearly identical to where the polls had the race three months ago.
In the swing states Obama has continued to hold a slight lead, and there is little hard evidence that the heavy spending by both sides has changed many voters’ minds.
The three swing states that have seen the most advertising by both sides are Florida, Ohio and Virginia — states Romney likely needs to sweep to win the presidency. At the beginning of May, Obama held a narrow lead in most polls in Virginia, a slightly wider one in Ohio, and the two were tied in Florida. Months later, the same is true in each state.
Obama’s reelection campaign suffers from a weak economy. Polls show Romney leads the president when voters are asked who they think would do a better job on that key issue.
100 days to go!!!!
I never ever thought we would hit 100 days to go! This compared to over 1,000 days looks so small!!!!!! It's almost like getting a breath of fresh air for a moment!! Remember in the one article that somebody added on about the polls where they said the polls were inaccurate and on one or more of the polls they polled more Democrats than Republicans!?!? Well...this is what I think on this poll! I don't think Obama has that much of a lead!! As a matter a fact I think he is behind in some areas!
I tink so too. And what I think, is if OB gets elected by some chance, it will not have been done without the help of fraudulent votes, again.
Romney hasn't begun to spend his money....he can't until after the RNC announces him as the nominee....then watch out obama!!!!!!!!!!!!! I hope he is not gentle on obama, because evidently it's the negative ads that seem to work....all the ads have to do is let obama bury himself in his own words.....but then.....will it fall on deaf ears?
We have to keep the House and win the Senate. I believe the Republicans need 4 seats. I'm quite sure Deb Fischer will defeat Kerry here in Ne. I hope Sarah Palin comes back to help her win.....I would like to go to one of the rallies.
Romney Campaign Unveils @RomneyResponse to Fight Media Memes
Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney has just launched a Twitter account--@RomneyResponse--and a Tumblr page of the same name to push back against hostile mainstream media memes. The move comes after a foreign trip during which Romney repeatedly was faced with vehement criticism from a media determined to create gaffes and mistakes where there had been none.
Unlike Obama campaign efforts such as the ill-fated "Truth Team" and "#AttackWatch," the new Romney tools are not aimed at opposition in general but focused on the mainstream media . Yesterday, Romney had said:
I realize that there will be some in the Fourth Estate, or whichever estate, who are far more interested in finding something to write about that is unrelated to the economy, to geopolitics, to the threat of war, to the reality of conflict in Afghanistan today, to a nuclearization of Iran. They’ll instead try and find anything else to divert from the fact that these last four years have been tough years for our country.
Today, Romney is fighting back, acknowledging what Andrew Breitbart observed long ago--that any successful Republican candidate would have to overcome the media as well as his or her Democrat opponent. "Do you think the GOP will win if its strategy is to apologize for every media-manufactured ‘right wing’ outrage?" he said. Romney's latest tactic is a sign that he understands exactly where the battle must be fought.
I think I just may have to launch my own Twitter account now!!!!
Now this is what I'm talkin' about!!!!!!!!!!
New Romney TV, Web Ads Hit Obama On GM Closures, Jobs The Romney campaign has just released two new advertisements--one for television and the other for the web--attacking President Barack Obama's record on General Motors and the economy, respectively. The GM ad, produced for TV, aims directly at one of Obama's supposed selling points--that he "saved" the auto industry--and points to the dealerships that his administration forced to close, often for apparently political reasons. Both feature scenes from Ohio, and are squarely aimed at voters in that crucial swing state.
The web ad focuses on Obama's economic performance in general, juxtaposing scenes of urban blight and economic failure with audio from Obama's speeches and dismal government statistics on the stagnant economy.
The new ads are a sign that even as the Romney campaign has begun to "go positive" and tell voters more about Mitt Romney himself, it continues to attack President Obama over his economic record, focusing on the issue voters say they care about most, and where Romney believes he contrasts with Obama most favorably.
Gallup: Obama Approval Below Fifty In All Major Swing States
Today, Gallup released new job approvals polls taken in all fifty states with the headline: "Thirteen States and D.C. Give Obama Majority Approval."
You can also read that as "Obama Below Majority Approval In 37 States".
The problem for Obama is that his approval numbers are only above 50% in states we already know he's going to win in November. But in the swing states he must take in order to win the opportunity to finish the job of destroying our country, the President is well below 50.
Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania -- 46%.
Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina -- 45%
Ohio -- 44%.
Colorado, New Hampshire -- 43%.
Gallup explains how dire these numbers are for Obama:
The 50% approval mark is significant because post-World War II incumbent presidents who have been above 50% job approval on Election Day were easily re-elected. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have more uncertain re-election prospects. Historically, two presidents below 50% in their final approval rating before the election -- George W. Bush and Harry Truman -- won, and three, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush, lost.
That's a somewhat simplistic way to look at it. On election day, according to Real Clear Politics, George W. Bush's approval rating was 49.7%. Today, Obama's approval rating is 47.4%, and chances are an incumbent is lucky if they haul in more than a single point over his approval rating on election day.
We also have an electoral college and in the states Obama must win, he'll have a lot of ground to gain if he's going to get anywhere close to 50.
Moreover, things improved for Bush in Iraq as election day neared -- and Iraq was the major issue of that cycle. This year the major issue is the economy and no one believes that's going to improve. In fact, many believe it's going to get worse.
Finally, there's the fact that Obama is in this much trouble after already firing his Big Guns on Bain and Romney's taxes. Romney, however, has yet to fire back. After a withering primary and the legal inability to spend the money he's raised until the convention, Romney has been outspent and fighting with one hand tied behind his back.
That all changes in a few weeks.
In better news, this latest round of Gallup polls contradict the latest round of juiced media-generated polls…
The CBS/NYT model has Democrats a +9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a +3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms. Ohio’s sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D+8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms. Pennsylvania’s numbers (D+6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008′s D+7 and 2010′s D+3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.
…so it's pretty safe to say that Obama is the one in trouble, not Romney.
These job approval numbers also tell us why Obama and his Media Palace Guards are working so hard to disqualify Romney. It's the only way Obama can win. America obviously wants to fire this failed president, but won’t if the alternative isn't acceptable -- and the only way the media can turn Romney into something unacceptable is to toxify him -- which is all the corrupt media's been doing for weeks now.
I'm just lovin' that blues tune with the accompanying video, up there Maui!
I don't think Obama has that much of a lead!!
Please don't think that! Look at as Obama leading everywhere and that this is the hardest fight of our lives! If we get a landslide victory, awesome! Don't let the polls fool you into thinking we've made it. My biggest concern are people who will stay home thinking its in the bag, some will do that even if there is only a 2 point lead.
What will end up biting us in the butt are the electorate votes. Even if Romney is leading in the polls, he isn't leading in states with the most electorate votes. I posted a while back something like Obama needing 2 states, Romney needs 7.
The current poll for the electorate shows Obama 332, Romney 206. You need 270 to win the election. If we don't turn some states around, we're done as a free, independent nation!
President Barack Obama has disappointed drug-reform advocates across the country since taking office as president, and nowhere do they feel more betrayed than in Colorado.
After holding the party convention in Denver and handily carrying this traditionally Republican state in 2008, Obama could be jeopardizing his reelection bid with a dismissive and even hostile approach to marijuana reform, a top issue for tens of thousands of local residents, including many of the activists who powered his last campaign.
Obama inspired hope with early signals on relaxing drug policy, including the October 2009 “Ogden memo” that said the U.S. would not prosecute in states that allow medical marijuana. In the past two years, however, the feds have targeted medical marijuana facilities with a record number of raids, putting Obama on course to surpass the previous high set by George W. Bush.
In Colorado alone, 40 dispensaries — all in compliance with state and local law — have already been shut down this year.
The surprising about-face has inspired former supporters in Colorado to try to legalize the drug outright. They managed to get a proposition to that effect on the ballot this November, and while some are (not unreasonably) teasing the possibility that the initiative, Amendment 64, might help the president by bringing a younger, more liberal electorate out to the polls, there are also warning signs that many of these same voters won’t pull the lever for Obama in a crucial swing state.
“The element that nobody’s really talking about is what I call the Gary Johnson effect,” says Denver Democratic political consultant Rick Ridder.
Johnson, the former Republican governor of New Mexico running for president on the Libertarian ticket, has begun holding press conferences from medical marijuana dispensaries and assailing Obama for waging the war on drugs. When combined with the steady drip of news about the latest massive DEA raids on what many local Democrats consider legitimate small-business owners, his presence in Colorado is poised to cause some headaches for the White House as campaign season heats up.
David...thank you for that piece on CO....I wasn't aware of that.
Btw.....now that Willie Nelson is going to perform at the RNC....maybe you will think about changing your vote to Romney???? Just thought I'd ask!!!
I'd be glad to visit Willie's bus anyday,and I hope he brings a few "magic brownies" for the RNC,but I'm sticking with the man who would feel right at home on Willie's bus and who might eat some brownies!
We certainly can't sit on our laurels and assume Romney will win. I always vote and don't know why there are people who casually throw away their right to do so. I hate to think of what Obama will do to this country given another 4 years.
I agree with you Sandra!!! The thought of it just makes ones heart SINK!!
Michael..I wasn't saying that I didn't think Obama had that much of a lead as in we don't have anything to worry about..but as even though his lead is only as much as it is we still have to try harder to convert more people and get the message out. We can't stop pushing him out until he is actually out the door! I think the night we hear the results that he will be joining the unemployment lines I will CRY with happiness! but I will wait until it happens!!!
I'm sorry sugar, I know you didnt mean it that way. I meant others reading who might take it that way. I completely left that sentence out, my fault and I'm sorry it came across wrong. Could have sworn I wrote it that way but when I went back and checked, I was embarrassed how it came out.
I know you are one of the fighters and won't stop until the job is done. I wish we had a million more of you! between most of the posters on FSM, I think we've got a good crew for making sure people know the truth. We check each other, recheck, and we make sure we distribute nothing but the truth. It's the readers I'm concerned about. Along with millions of others that aren't here. I want to make sure no one becomes relaxed, complacent, or figuring we've won before the count is made. The last thing I want to see is another "Dewey Wins" fiasco! haha If we woke up to Romney wins, only to find out a Dewey error was made and it change to Oops, Obama Won ... can you imagine the mass suicide?! Hahaha
What I want to see is on Nov 7th I wake up to the biggest landslide in history in favor of Romney! Something equal to Reagan's landslide would be just AWESOME! 270 electoral votes needed. The day after voting day, Ronald Reagan had 525 electoral votes to Walter Mondales 13!! A 95.2% margin! Now THAT'S sending a message! I'll take the win even if it's 270 Romney, 268 Obama. But man I would love to send a message to Obama and all future progressives that WE DON'T WANT YOU! Another Reagan landslide would be the exact message to send! A message that tells Obama he's not loved like he thinks he is.
I will be front line and center at the polls come November!