Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing! Here’s why:
1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.
In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. That’s because some don’t have landlines or are rarely at home or don’t speak English well enough to be interviewed or don’t have time to talk. Elderly are overstated because they tend to be home and to have time. So you need to increase the weight given to interviews with young people, blacks and Latinos and count those with seniors a bit less.
Normally, this task is not difficult. Over the years, the black, Latino, young, and elderly proportion of the electorate has been fairly constant from election to election, except for a gradual increase in the Hispanic vote. You just need to look back at the last election to weight your polling numbers for this one.
But 2008 was no ordinary election. Blacks, for example, usually cast only 11% of the vote, but, in 2008, they made up 14% of the vote. Latinos increased their share of the vote by 1.5% and college kids almost doubled their vote share. Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and 2004 turnouts in determining his sample. That’s why his data usually is better for Romney.
But polling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.
If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality.
2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.
But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.
An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.
So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!
Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading. Any professional pollster (those consultants hired by candidates not by media outlets) would publish two findings for each poll — one using 2004 turnout modeling and the other using 2008 modeling. This would indicate just how dependent on an unusually high turnout of his base the Obama camp really is.
All I know is Romney has got to win, or our country really is gone. Save these Obama voters from themselves, even if they don't feel they need saving. To have a country where we all can still agree, disagree, or agree to disagree. If Obama stays, end of story.
Don't beleive the polls. Nope, I don't. There would have to be an equal number of people polled from both parties and including an equal number of independents to MAYBE get an idea about what is going on but people lie.
I just hope that Mitt is smart enough to get ahold of Gingrich before the first debate. He needs some good practise and advise on how to debate and come across as genunine. IF he falls on his face - it will be over.
Funny you should mention Newt....I have listened to him a few times this week and that man is so smart....he really puts obama in his place.....I really think that if Newt would have won the nomination (too bad about all his baggage) I think he would be so far ahead of obama right now that we wouldn't be worried about the polls....and the debates would be a no brainer at all, because he would wipe the floor with obama.....oh well....we got to pray that Mitt can do it on the 3rd of Oct.....he has to....if he comes out weak, I'm afraid he is done.....as we all wait....
Since the campaign of 2012 began in earnest, Mitt Romney has been under withering assault by a corrupt media determined to drag President FailureTeleprompter over the finish line. Not only has Romney been beaten relentlessly by Obama's Media Palace Guards, this very same media has never stopped covering up and downplaying Obama's failures -- not even the failures that result in the assassination of an American ambassador.
And yet, here we are, six weeks out from an election and this sucker is all tied up.
Narrative, narrative, narrative, narrative, narrative, narrative…
The Narrative must be, according to the corrupt media, that Romney is losing. This despite two of America's most reliable pollsters showing it tied.
Narrative, narrative, narrative, narrative, narrative, narrative…
The Narrative must be, according to our corrupt media, that Romney is too incompetent to be an acceptable alternative to a failed president. And this is why on Twitter and on their propaganda pages, the media is mocking the fact that after his convention Mitt Romney awarded $200,000 in bonuses to his staff.
You see, by mocking the bonuses, the media accomplishes the two narrative goals mentioned above and does so without a hint of irony.
What's the irony, you ask?
Other than Obama's foreign policy, there is no American institution teetering closer to collapse today than the mainstream media. The media is losing advertisers hand over fist, losing impact (as poll after poll proves), and losing customers in droves. The trust is gone and only bankruptcy looms.
But what do you think? You think maybe some in the media -- these thoroughly discredited laughingstock losers aboard the U.S.S. Titanic Failure have won and will still win some bonuses now and again? You know, despite the fact that their world is crashing down around them?
You think maybe Howard Kurtz, one of collapsing-CNN's stars, has scored a bonus here and there? You think any one of those corrupt-ocrats at The Incredibly Shrinking Politicogot a little something extra in the Christmas card? You think some high-falutin' member of the brass over at the exhausted and diminished NBC News has scored a bump or two?
Yes, that's right, what we're witnessing here is the insufferably smug crew of a sunken ship snickering at the bonus-laden crew of a ship that might still win this race.
The folks in this group are the only people I know voting for Romney..
If all the military's votes are counted, the majority will vote for Romney.
There are plenty of people voting for Romney & not just in this group. Political Derby is another group that is strongly for Romney. It's unfortunate that Kansas has so few electoral college votes (6) because the state will go to Romney. Always goes Red!
David, I assume you tend to hang out with Libertarians, so it's probably a given that you don't know a lot of Romney people outside of this group.
Well David.....then pray tell why the polls right now are GALLUP FRIDAY: O 47% R 47%...
Evidently you don't get out much.....Nebraska is a Red State (Go Huskers) and is definitely going Romney!!!! And they also will lose their dem senate seat that "Cornhusker Kickback Ben Nelson" held....now that I find funny!!!
Two polls of Virginia that mainstream media organizations commissioned grossly overestimate the percentage of Democrats that will turn out in 2012, skewing the results for President Barack Obama in one of the most important swing states this election cycle.
On Wednesday, Quinnipiac University conducted a poll for CBS News and the New York Times. It found Obama leading Mitt Romney in Virginia by four points, 50% to 46%.
When the poll is examined more closely, though, Democrats had an eleven-point advantage over Republicans in the poll. The makeup of the poll was: 35% Democrat, 24% Republican, 36% Independent.
On Tuesday, The Washington Post had Obama leading Romney by eight points, 52% to 44%, in a poll that conveniently was D +8. Democrats made up 32%, Republicans 24%, and Independents 35%.
In 2008, when Democrats were most excited about Obama in Virginia, Democrats had a six-point advantage over Republicans on election night. And Obama defeated John McCain by six points, 53% to 47%, which mirrored the national numbers and the D +6 advantage Obama had in Virginia.
Democrats are not as excited about Obama as they were in 2008. And Republicans are more motivated against him than they were in 2008. This means an equal number of Republicans and Democrats will most likely turn out in November in Virginia, and it is unlikely Obama will enjoy an 8-point or 11-point advantage on election night.
Last week, even the liberal Public Policy Polling, which does polling for the Daily Kos,only gave Obama a D +3 advantage in a poll that found him leading Romney by five points.
The RealClearPolitics average of Virginia's polls has Obama leading Romney by 3 percentage points, but these skewed polls, which are included in the average, have made Obama's lead in the average greater than what is probably is.
Obama campaign manager Jim Messina told reporters on Saturday that despite national tracking polls showing the president and Romney tied, Obama is still winning.
"In all the battleground states, we continue to see all our pathways there," he told the White House pool at an Obama fundraiser in Milwaukee. "We're either tied or in the lead in every battleground state 45 days out."
Messina, who drove from Chicago to Wisconsin to be with Obama on his first trip to a state that appears to have come into play when Paul Ryan was selected to be Romney's running mate, predicted that the national polling will get even closer, but that the president's lead will hold in key swing states.
"I think you will see a tightening in the national polls going forward," he said. "What I care way more about it Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, etc. In those states, I feel our pathways to victory are there. There are two different campaigns, one in the battlegrounds and one everywhere else. That's why the national polls aren't relevant to this campaign."
In Wisconsin, Messina said the GOP is stronger than they are nationally, but maintained that the Obama campaign still has an edge
Sandra and Maui-Actually,I have friends from across the political spectrum with many apolitical friends.
Minnesota is a heavily liberal state when it comes to Presidential Politics..Has gone Democratic in every year since 1972 Many of the apolitical came out to support Jesse Ventura's upset win for Governor.
Colorado is more conservative,but with a Libertarian streak. It is the birthplace of the Libertarian Party. Colorado votes against tax increases but supports marijuana rights
I have made friends right across your country David. I would say about a quarter of them are Democrats and they are all supporting Romney this go round. Lots of hard core ones will be voting Libertarian instead of voting for Obama. Can't bring themselves to cross the two party system so will settle for the third option but it will hurt Obama and not Romney.
HEY! My grandkids sing that there song!!!!
The only people who support Romney is the 2% white man and that is not going to be enough
You must have gotten into the obama koolaid again last night...shame on you.....you should never post when under the influence.....just sayin' wink wink
I am thinking the white voters are the biggest group in America right now no? I recall that Obama only won because the majority of them threw their votes his way. After being called racists day in and day out for the last four years many have now jumped off the Obama train wreck and are looking to Romney as the bandaid.
mabear.....I am a woman, so your 2% figure above is crapolla!!!!! You really need to do some research.....your comment is BS....don't try to pull that crap here because you will be called out for your lies big time!!!! FSM members do not have their heads in the sand.....just remember that when you post. Try stating facts for a change and you might beable to carry on a conversation in this group....otherwise....we will scroll over your comments.
Another one-hit wanderer!!!!!! Oh well....maybe it's a kool-aid hangover???
mamabear has always and will always be an Obama supporter and we all know that the lies flow well with Obama which he has taught his followers well!! Sorry mamabear....but you are wrong...keep drinking that kool aid because it will be so much fun watching you slither back in the hole the night of election when we see that Romney/Ryan have taken the votes and the election!!
David..Have you ever heard of upsets!? And Jesse Ventura with his lies of being a Navy Seal won't get him that much ahead!