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Sep 25, 2012

Stohl 2012, acp.    >>

" Regarding 133Xe, we find a total release of 15.3 (uncertainty range 12.2–18.3) EBq, which is more than twice as high as the total release from Chernobyl... The entire noble gas inventory of reactor units 1–3 was set free into the atmosphere between 11 and 15 March 2011. "

= There was complete (ie.. affecting all fuel assemblies) meltdown of units 1–3 and total containment failure by 2011-03-15; with combined reactor-inventory (ie. radionuclides present at time of accident, units 1-3, no SFP) about twice that of Chernobyl-IV-1986.

The release was somewhat less violent than Ch'86 and total releases (of Cs, Sr, ..) from Fuk'11 smaller than those from Ch'86, but fallout (~20% over Japan, ~2% other land, ~78% into ocean) affected a more populated area.


SFP#4: 1535 fuel bundles = 2 core loads, and unit#4 had been shut-down on 2010-11-29. After at least 19 months spent fuel assemblies are transferred into a common larger SFP, outside at ground level. This common SFP contained 6374 assemblies.

This and other valuable data (best) found in:

"Xenon-133 and caesium-137 releases into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant: determination of the source term, atmospheric dispersion, and deposition" Stohl &al, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2313–2343, 2012


Cs-137 INVENTORY of Fuk.Dai-ichi 1+2+3 reactor cores (no spent fuel) calculated from electricity-data from wikipedia, using Eisenbud & Gesell, 4th ed. (1997)] = 390 PBq.

Cs-137 RELEASED (according to Stohl&al): 36 PBq  "also from the spent-fuel pool of unit 4"

Cs-137 INVENTORY of RBMK-1000 = 200-284 PBq (assuming it ran on 70-100% of power rating; Dai-ichi(1-3) ran at 68% of rating in 2009-2010), of which RELEASE = 85 PBq  (according to wiki, and release= 100% of Xe, 55% of I, 3.5 % of fuel ... about 1/3 for Cs seems plausible; as Cs is less volatile than I and more than fuel)

YIELD=RELEASE from atmospheric tests 1945-1980 (=~200Mt fission):  1184 PBq

( Details available, in xls-format )



2011-11-02:  Nuclear Fission Detected at Fukushima

Tepco, began spraying boric acid on the No. 2 reactor at 2:48 a.m. Japan time to prevent [FURTHER] accidental chain reactions. ...


as pointed out by Prof. Chris. Busby, in "Chris Busby on radioactivity displacing supplements" at 4:00 (and this is a very-probably-valid and hugely important point):
although the radio-nuclide-emissions from Fu.Dai-ichi'11 are (still) somewhat less than those from Chernobyl'86, the health implications are probably bigger, maybe way bigger, as many more people are affected. -- So, considering damage to human health, Fuk.Dai-ichi MAY(correctly) be considered 'worse than Chernobyl'


release of Cs-137

by Windscale 1957 .........        22 TBq
by Little Boy  ..............      89 TBq
by Fuk.Dai-ichi 2011 .... (15-)35,000 TBq (1a, 1b)
.............................  36,000 TBq (3)
by Chernobyl 1986 .........    85,000 TBq (2)

1a) according to Tokyo Shimbun, based on government data

1b) according to nature.com

2)  according to wiki/Chernobyl_catastrophe
Japan’s Fukushima catastrophe brings big radiation spikes to B.C.

3) Stohl & al; Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 28319-28394, 2011


Canada allows 6 Bq/l of I-131 in drinking water—or 54 times more than the EPA ( => EPA: ~ 0.1 mBq/l )
some rainwater in N-Am > 10 Bq/l

I-131 in air: background < = 0.01 mBq/m**3; peaked in Sidney(Can) on 2011-03-20 at 3.6 mBq/m**3


HIROSHIMA-DAY 2011

Dresden, 13.2.1945 22h - 15.02.1945;  ~ 2 kt explosives + ~ 2 kt incendiaries
Tokyo, 9.-10.3.1945; "only" ~ 1.7 kt bombs needed for the most destructive bombing
Hiroshima, 1945-08-06 08:15 ; ~ 15 kt(TNT) U (bullet-type)
Nagasaki, 1945-08-09 11:02 ; ~ 21 kt(TNT) Pu (implosion)
((according 2 wiki; localtime))


2011-04-14:

Huge radiation release led to severity hike

According to the Cabinet Office's Nuclear Safety Commission, about one TBq/h is currently being discharged into the air... The commission concluded that the total amount released was 630 PBq of I-131 + Cs-137.

The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency concluded that 370 PBq of radioactive I and Cs have been released.

Junichi Matsumoto, acting head of Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s Nuclear Power & Plant Siting Division, acknowledged [that] from the standpoint of how much radiation has been released, [Fukushima] is equal to or more serious than Chernobyl."


2011-06-08:

'Melt-through' at Fukushima? / Govt report to IAEA suggests situation worse than meltdown

Fukushima nuclear plant may have suffered 'melt-through', Japan admits

2011-06-07: Japan doubles radiation leak estimate

" 770 PBq escaped into the atmosphere in the first week"

June: Fukushima radioactive water could overflow soon

Fuk.Dai-ichi: water onsite: 720 PBq
(admitted) atmospheric release: 370-630 PBq
(admitted) release into ocean: ~ 5 PBq

Chernobyl'86 total atmospheric release: 5200 PBq



Confirmed: 3 Meltdowns and 3 pressure-vessels damaged.
Meltdown Speed Varied By Reactor And it IS (the Zirkonium from) the fuel-casings that, reacting with water when hot enough, produce (mostof/all?)the Hydrogen.

In May TEPCO finally admitted meltdown of reactor#1 ... and

Meltdown Also Likely Occurred at No.2, No.3 Reactors of Fukushima Plant

MeltDown  --  images from Chernobyl'86


Gesundheitliche Folgen von Tschernobyl - 25 Jahre nach der Reaktorkatastrophe

April 2011,  IPPNW + Gesellschaft für Strahlenschutz

New Book Concludes..Chernobyl Death Toll: 985,000 / IAEA:"4000" (harharhar!)

" Casualties of war can be counted immediately. But the effects of the reactor-disaster will be felt for generations. "
-- school principal of "Almani(?)", district of Stolin, ca. 220 km west of Chernobyl  (in "Am Schauplatz - NACH DER HÖLLE" ; my transl.)



NHK (5.4.011)
>> The utility firm said samples of water taken near the water intake of the No. 2 reactor at 11:50 AM Saturday contained 300,000 becquerels of iodine 131 per cubic centimeter, or 7.5 million times the legal limit.
so, presumably, The Limit refers to I-131 (only) and is
I-131:  300,000 / 7.5E6  Bq/ml = 40 Bq/l

ZAMG: Fukushima (Update: 4. April 2011 12:00)
" traces of I-131 and Cs-137 are now being detected virtually everywhere in the northern hemisphere, including the Arctic. In parts of USA it's > 1mBq/m**3 I-131. Nowhere does this pose an immediate health risk. "


+++++ 16.7.1945 +++ 6+9.8.1945 ++...++ 26.4.1986 +++ 11.3.2011 +++++


ZAMG: ...Fukushima (Update: 2. April 2011 12:00 [CET])
Sum of emissions in the first week [12.-19.03.011] is between 10 PBq and 700 PBq I-131 and between 1 PBq and 70 PBq Cs-137 [a little below Ch'86] where the estimate for the lower boundary is extremely conservative

Chernobyl'86:  1760 PBq I-131  +  85  PBq Cs-137   (wiki)

LittleBoy'45:    60 PBq I-131  +  0.1 PBq Cs-137   (*)

IvyMike'52:   32000 PBq I-131  +  53  PBq Cs-137   (**)
CastleBravo'54   ???   maybe > IvyMike !
TsarBomb'61:   6000 PBq I-131  +  10 PBq  Cs-137   (**)

*) my GUESStimates (see below)


ZAMG (30.3.)  " ~ 100 PBq I-131 / DAY "


ZAMG: Fukushima (Update: 26. März 2011 10:00)
Nach unseren Abschätzungen gehen wir derzeit von Jod-131 Emissionen in der Größenordnung von 1017 Bq pro Tag aus, sowie von Cäsium-137 Freisetzungen zwischen 5 1015 und 5 1016 Bq pro Tag. Hochgerechnet auf die Dauer des Unfalles ergeben sich für diese flüchtigen Isotope Summen, die mit der Reaktorkatastrophe von Chernobyl vergleichbar sind.

ZAMG: Fukushima (Update: 24. März 2011 12:00 [CET])
" estimated emissions for Fukushima.Daiichi IN FIRST THREE DAYS
  =~ 20% Chernobyl for I-131, 20-60% Ch'yl for Cs-137
"

12.+13.3.:      260 PBq I-131  +  10 PBq Cs-137
14.+15.3.:      240 PBq I-131  + ?80 PBq Cs-137;  " 5-50 PBq/day "

Chernobyl'86:  1760 PBq I-131  +  85 PBq Cs-137

"Little Boy"  (roughly) 60 PBq I-131  +  0.1 PBq Cs-137 [my guesstimate, which I arrived at like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fission_products_(by_element)  >>
yield of Cs-137 = 6.337 %   ( T = 30 years )
yield of I-129  = 0.841 %

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-131  >>
I-131 [comprises] nearly 3% of the total products of fission
say:  I-131 =~ 3 %  ( T = 8 days )
... call that PFP (PercentFissionProduct)

"Little Boy"
38.5 kg U-235; ~2% fissioned
# U-235 split by LB =~ 38.5 kg * 2% / 235 g/mol * 6E23 atoms/mol =~ 2E24
 
N(t) = N0 * 0.5**(t/T) = N0 * exp(t * ln(2) / T) ;
T := half-life-time
A(t=0) = dN/dt(0) = N0 * ln(2) / T

LittleBoy:  N0(x) =~  2E24 * PFP(x) ; A0(x) =~  2E24 * PFP(x) * ln(2) / T(x)

I-131:  2E24 * 3% * ln(2) / (8*24*3600s) =~  60 PBq
Cs-137: 2E24 * 6.3% * ln(2) / (30*365*24*3600s) =~ 0.1 PBq



CORRECTIONS or SUGGESTIONS-4-IMPROVEMENT VERY WELCOME

Ivy Mike  (1952-11-01)  10.4 Mt(TNT) >= 77% fission = ~8000 kt(TNTfromFission) =~ 534 "LittleBoy"s

Castle Bravo  (1954-03-01 "fission reactions of the natural uranium tamper were quite dirty") 15 Mt(TNT)  "a substantial fraction" ?%? fission?

Tsar Bomb (1961-10-30 "three-stage design", one of the "cleanest" nuclear bombs) 50 Mt(TNT) 3% fission (97% fusion)
=~ 1500 kt(TNTfromFission) =~ 100 "LittleBoy"s =>


CORRECTIONS or SUGGESTIONS-4-IMPROVEMENT VERY WELCOME


Animated map of nuclear explosions, 1945-1998


NationMaster.com

Interactive Maps: Worldwide Nuclear Power




ZAMG: Fukushima (Update: 21. März 2011 11:00)
I-131 (half-life= 8 days), Cs-137 (30 years), Xe-133 (5.2 days)

ZAMG:  Fukushima: Ausbreitung von Radioaktivität
spread of radioactivity, esp. I-131 (half-life= 8 days), Cs-137 (=30 years); German; +animated maps
ZAMG (Ger.) = Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics

Fukushima Nuclear, 9 Day Weather Forecast

       Japan: max. radiation per prefecture
       wiki/Gray >>  1 Gy =~ 115 R   /   1Gy ~~ 1[.1] Sv

geiger-counter-chiba.livestream    (?offline since 2011-03-25)

radiation readings in ibaraki prefecture   (Japanese page, but values in nGy/h readable-4me)



IAEA: Fukushima..Update (25 March 2011, 05.15 UTC)
injection of (sea)water into reactor pressure vessels of #1,2&3 continues
the spent fuel pool of #4 was sprayed with ~150 t of water using concrete pump truck on 24 March
120 t of seawater was injected in the spent fuel pool of #3 on 23+24 March

IAEA: Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident Update (23 March, 1:10 UTC)



CORRECTIONS or SUGGESTIONS-4-IMPROVEMENT VERY WELCOME

HOWMUCH  U  split .. in "Hiroshima"-units ?
Fukushima (700 MW) x 1 year ?

"Little Boy"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Boy >>
 ~15 kt(TNT) =~ 0.6 g

E = m * c**2 ;  c = 300,000 km/s = 3E8 m/s
1 W = 1 kg*m**2/s**3 )

3(th/el)*700 MW(el) * 300*24*3600 s / ( 3E8 m/s )**2 = 0.6 kg

1000  "Little Boy"s / year   !!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Boy >>  38.5 kg U-235, ~2% fissioned; ~ 15kt(TNT) ~ 63 TJ (^=0.7g) , "0.6 g"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_Man    >>    6.2 kg Pu-239(&240), 20% fissioned; ~ 21 kt(TNT)



http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=japan-nuclear-fallout  >>

nuclear fuel in the Chernobyl 4 reactor that exploded in 1986: 190 t

Estimated nuclear fuel and fission by-products released into the atmosphere during Chernobyl disaster: 25 to 57 t

Approximate amount of nuclear fuel in each crippled Fukushima Daiichi reactor: 70 to 100 t



CORRECTIONS or SUGGESTIONS-4-IMPROVEMENT VERY WELCOME

DECAYHEAT -> COOLINGWATER  /  ZERFALLSWÄRME -> KÜHLWASSERBEDARF ?
H2O( fluid,cold->100°gas )
H2O( 0°->100° )... 418 J/g
H2O( fl->g )..... 2250 J/g
H2O( 0°fl->100°g ) ... 2668 J/g
1 MW -> 0,37 kg/s = 1,3 t/h

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decay_heat >>
decayheat(1W after shutdown) = ~0.2%
0.2% * 3(th/el)*700 MW(el) = 4,2 MW ~~ 5 t/h H2O( cold->100°g )

WHEN was reactor #4 shut down ?  ... November 2010 (?)



       data on spent fuel storage (pdf)


CORRECTIONS or SUGGESTIONS-4-IMPROVEMENT VERY WELCOME

RADIATION.DOSAGE

Sievert = unit of dosage equivalent   ( 1 Gy =~ 1 Sv = 100 rem )

" 15-second-long [TSA "full body"] scan is equal to about an hour of normal background radiation "
wiki>> The worldwide average background dose..is about 2.4 millisievert (mSv) per year
2.4 mSv / y * 1 h = 2.7E-4 mSv

* wiki/Banana_equivalent_dose ...... 0.0001  mSv = 0.1 µSv
TSA-scan:           2.7E-4 mSv     = 0.00027 mSv = 2.7 BED
# smoking 1 cigarette = 1.2E-3 mSv = 0.0012  mSv = 12 BED =~ 4 TSA-scans
# Dental radiography, typical .....   = 0.005   mSv
# smoking 1 pack (20 cigarettes)   = 0.024   mSv

VIE.UKH-Meidling: " 1 LungenRÖ =~ Flug VIE-NY ; 1 CT = viele LuRÖ "
VIE.UKH-Meidling: " 1 Lungen-CT =  2226 mAs ( * ?? V) "


# Chest x-ray = 0.04 mSv
* flight NY-Tokyo = 0.1 mSv  ( yomiuri.co.jp )
TWO TSA-scans 365 times =>  0.2 mSv
# Mammogram = 0.30 mSv
# Smoking 1.5 packs/day = 13 mSv/year
#...from wiki/Sievert#Dose_Benchmarks, and wiki/ISS

# airliner (10 km)    # Living near a[N ACCIDENT-FREE] nuclear power station = less than 0.01 mSv/year
     BUT this is *external* radiation ONLY; ingestion of radionuclides NOT considered
# Chest x-ray = 0.04 mSv
# airliner (10 km)                         ~ 0.2  mSv/day
# Cosmic radiation (from sky) at sea level = 0.24 mSv/year
# Terrestrial radiation (from ground) = 0.28 mSv/year
# Mammogram = 0.30 mSv
# Natural radiation in the human body = 0.40 mSv/year
# Radon in the average US home = 2 mSv/year
#  1 µSv/hour = 8.76 mSv/year
# Smoking 1.5 packs/day = 13 mSv/year
! allowed dose for Fukushima's workers was increased to 250 mSv (normally 20 mSv per year)
# ISS, LEO: 380-400km:  ~ 1 mSv/day =~ 360 mSv/year

Effects to humans of acute radiation (within one day:
# 0–0.25 Sv: None
# 0.25–1 Sv: ...nausea...; bone marrow, lymph nodes, spleen damaged
# 3–6 Sv: ... death if untreated
# 6–10 Sv: ... death expected
# Above 10 Sv: Incapacitation and death
#
#..wiki/Sievert#Dose_Benchmarks


allowed dose for Fukushima's workers was increased to 250 mSv (normally 20 mSv per year)

Fukushima.Dai-ichi inside #2 reactor housing(18.04.2011) ... 4.1 mSv/h
Fukushima.Dai-ichi inside ##1,3 reactor buildings (04/011) ... 10-60 mSv/h
Fukushima.Dai-ichi "water in and around the #2 turbine building" (04/011) ...  > 1 Sv/h

Chernobyl-meltdown(measured near 'elefant-foot', 1986) ...  > 10,000 R/h =~ 100 Sv/h


CORRECTIONS or SUGGESTIONS-4-IMPROVEMENT VERY WELCOME



U$A :     commondreams.org  >>  Decades-old nuclear power plants are currently being relicensed for years of further use, even as they fail to meet today's safety standards...The plants are also obtaining permission to forgo routine maintenance. This leads to near-disasters such as the Ohio plant that just happened to discover a football-size hole in a containment vessel.


     short (re-direct) URL for this = http://beam.to/Fukushima




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