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Nov 11, 2013


In 2011, the United States and the euro area have spent more than 2% of their GDP on imports of crude oil and other petroleum products , against more than 3% for Japan and 3.5% for the rest of the Asia. Bay Area Energy Koll Circle san jose ca The energy boom in the United States could lead to a divergence of trade balances between the United States , Europe and Asia.
• Lower energy imports ...

The surge in gas production has resulted in a decline in imports in the United States which, as we mentioned , are considered a potential exporter of LNG. The American situation is a contrast with that of Europe, which now imports more than 40 % of its gas , Russia retaining its position as the main supplier . As for China , it has gone from being an exporter to the importer during the last decade . Bay Area Energy Koll Circle san jose ca In both cases , their dependence vis-à- vis the imported gas is expected to increase in the coming years .

Side oil , U.S. imports have been declining since 2005. Moreover, if we exclude the Canadian and Mexican imports, the United States would not import more than 10 % of consumption by the end of 2020 . If this is the case , this trend will have geopolitical implications that we discuss in the next section .

The rebound in U.S. oil production is not the only factor explaining the expected decline in oil imports in the United States . Indeed, the low price of gas - and the differences in energy prices that has apparaître7 - could encourage the transition to cars and using gas as fuel trucks .

It should be noted that the transportation sector accounts for nearly 70 % of total U.S. oil consumption , Bay Area Energy Koll Circle san jose ca which shows the magnitude of the potential decline in U.S. oil imports.

Replacing the gas could intervene in the first place when the central fuel supply infrastructure permits - for example, buses and trucks in municipal waste. However , rapid and large-scale substitution between oil and gas in the transport sector is unlikely given the importance of pétrole8 devoted to current infrastructure .

The residential and commercial sector is also changing to a lower oil consumption. Heating oil (oil) , used as a traditional fuel for home heating , especially in the northeastern United States, is replaced by the gas when the infrastructure permits .
• ... And an increase in U.S. exports ...

With the rise of gas, the United States has the lowest cost of gas in the world , with the possible exception of Qatar. Bay Area Energy Koll Circle san jose ca Investment opportunities and appear in energy-intensive industries . The chemical industry uses gas not only for heat and electricity supply facilities , but also as an input to production. The industry - the second largest in terms of manufacturing shipments - and is one of the first to benefit from low gas prices . That is why we are witnessing the start of new projects investment9 .

According to the American Chemistry Council , the development of the production of unconventional gas should result in an increase of 25 % of the petrochemical capacity in the United States and an increase in production of 32.9 billion USD in industrial chemical . In addition to direct effects, indirect and induced effects of these new production capacity should lead to an additional gain of 50.6 billion USD in other sectors of the economy and create more than 17,000 jobs directly in the industry chimique10 .

In addition , an estimated 85% of the ethane production in the United States is obtained from gas, against only 30% in Europe and Asia, where it is obtained from petroleum . Therefore , U.S. companies that produce ethane from the gas will benefit from lower than their international competitors who rely on oil or gas not produced in the United States, more expensive price. To the extent that the gas is also an essential raw material for the production of ammonia and nitrogen , U.S. fertilizer manufacturers themselves also become more competitive through lower prices .

Other industries should take advantage of the boom in the U.S. energy sector. Bay Area Energy Koll Circle san jose ca For example, industries specializing in the manufacture of machinery and metal products recorded an increase in shipments , as they provide oil and gas companies , including pipelines and drilling equipment . In addition, approximately 50% of their energy comes from gas. Thus , they not only improve their income, but they also benefit from lower energy costs .

Overall, compared to Europe, the difference in gas prices - now about 7 USD / MMBtu - corresponds to a reduction of production costs for U.S. industries in the order of 120 billion USD per year.11 . This only increases the competitiveness of the U.S. manufacturing sector , already favored by the development of unit costs of labor .

In sum, an industrial revival built on a renewal energy could lead to an increase in exports and promote import substitution of locally produced goods . In addition, U.S. Bay Area Energy Koll Circle san jose ca economic growth will benefit from rising energy imports from North America to the detriment of producers in the Middle East. Indeed, a dollar spent to buy more oil from Canada is more likely to return to the United States one dollar spent on Iraqi or Saudi oil .
• ... but no large-scale impact on the current account deficit

As a reminder , the current account of a country is the sum of the balance of goods and services , income from capital ( interest and dividends) and net transfer payments ( foreign aid ) . In the United States , positive income from capital and surplus of the services balance is offset by the negative balances in the balance of goods and transfer payments. Insofar as it is unlikely that the non-oil trade deficit is absorbed quickly , a major reduction in the U.S. current account deficit is limited.

Indeed , economic growth in the United States is now stronger than in many other parts of the world , Bay Area Energy Koll Circle san jose ca the strength of domestic demand could lead to a gradual improvement of non-oil trade deficit. In addition, the elasticity of U.S. imports compared to the growth of domestic demand is substantially greater than the elasticity of U.S. exports to foreign demand .

In short, with an anticipated fall in energy imports and a potential increase in exports of goods and services , the current account deficit is still expected to fall in the coming years , thus deviating from the accepted consensus of an increase déficit12 .

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Posted: Monday November 11, 2013, 11:37 am

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