With so many people in the United States becoming disillusioned with both major political parties, it is time we took a good look at possible alternatives. Here they are:
Most global warming denialists I'm familiar with are old people who are set in their ways. Such people are most vulnerable to confirmation bias. Younger adults, on the other hand, are not so attracted or attached to dogma.
I, Dale Husband, along with many others, stand for my chosen causes in Care2 because I beleive in doing what's right, regardless of whether I get paid for it or not. And it's not just global warming either. I have also fought for teaching evolution and to get rid of the Bush regime and anything like it from corrupting America more.
I oppose denialists because they appeal to ingrained prejudices based on what certain people WANT to believe, regardless of the actual facts. The big oil companies, including Exxon, certainly feel threatened by the facts about global warming. The idea that we humans are messing up the Earth with greenhouse gases which will lead to global disaster within a century or two is indeed offensive to people's egos, because it means they and their descendants must make radical changes to their lifestyles to stop the damage THEY THEMSELVES WILL HAVE HELPED CAUSE. So instead, they LOOK for reasons to deny the truth about themselves and what is happening. People who claim to be experts will then put out fallacious claims all over the internet knowing desparate people are out there to grab it and spread it around. They play their victims like an instrument, really. That is the real scam, not what Al Gore and the IPCC do. Uncertainty about the facts is no excuse for denying them. And noting that the effects of global warming can have natural causes is no excuse for denying outright that man plays a role in that phenomenon. Those are logical fallacies and I will oppose, expose and depose them every time I see them, because I WANT THE HUMAN RACE TO SURVIVE INDEFINITLY! And being able to foresee the downfall of humanity (and global warming is but one cause for profound concern here) and not doing anything about it because you let yourself be misled by people that only live for this present reality is the worst form of nonsense I can imagine.
As great as we may consider the United States Constitution to be, the fact remains that, like all human products, it has flaws that could be improved. When that document was written, the political parties that so dominate American politics today didn't exist at all. Since parties are not mentioned, why were they allowed to establish themselves and florish? Because they were not forbidden, either.
The Constitution opens with the phrase, "We the People", not We the Political Parties, not We the Corporations, and certainly not We the Lobbyists. Yet Political Parties, Corporations, and Lobbyists, which by nature represent only a part of the people, are what control America. If this is a democratic republic, I'd hate to see an elitist tyranny.
Can you have democracy without political parties? YES! Just have candidates run as individuals and ban parties and their ability to impose limits on what their candidates can do or stand for. Reading the Constitution by itself, with no reference to American history or current events, that's what we would expect! Let's make the Constitution FORBID what it doesn't allow!
Ban lobbyists from influencing members of Congress! How is that supposed to be allowed when bribery is illegal? Why can't Congressmen simply read mail from their constituents and then follow their lead?
Abolish the Electoral College! It's a carryover from the elitist thinking of some of the Founding Fathers. We don't need it anymore and it produces misleading results, like in the 2000 Presidental Election, which Gore would have won had the popular vote been taken as the result.
For any conspiracy to succeed, there are several conditions that may be required:
The participants must be as few as possible.
The conspiracy must be of as short a duration as possible.
The conspiracy must be extremely secretive.
Condition 3 relies on the first two, as indicated in the proverb, “Three can keep a secret if two of them are dead.”
Thus, the commonly held 9-11 conspiracy theory that many government officials under the Bush Administration were directly involved in the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon is far less credible than the idea that a dozen operatives of Al-Qaeda were responsible. Likewise, it is far more credible that Exxon and its operatives have been planting misleading claims about global warming in the popular press and various blogs over the past couple of decades than that thousands of scientists have been misleading people about global warming since 1896, when Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius first identified the heat retaining properties of carbon dioxide (called “carbonic acid” in Arrhenius’ paper referred to below).
People make up conspiracy theories to explain what could be responsible for something they happen to dislike. The “theory” could be more properly considered a hypothesis in science. The problem comes when these people do not take the next step in the scientific method, which is to test the idea via observation or experiment. Instead, they proclaim the conspiracy theory as DOGMA and proceed to interpret all evidence according to that dogma, despite never finding any direct evidence to confirm the theory. Then they abandon all willingness to allow the claim to be disproven.
You can’t do science that way! Just because a theory explains something doesn’t mean it is true. You must ultimately rule out all other possibilities before stating something questionable to be FACT.
Note comment #163, which I wrote in reference to some earlier commenters.
(((Interesting comments, these three.
Let's face it, no one who is not a dissident is going to read links to an HIV dissident site, especially when some of the papers are by Duesberg. People may read papers from mainstream scientists so long as they support their own arguments. Everyone here is interested in furthering their own arguments. Period. Posted by: wayne | March 19, 2007 7:46 PM
"Not only have I read Duesberg's articles but I have checked his claims with the 'orthodox' literature. It is only after this that I concluded that duesberg is full of crap." And therefore everyone reading this blog should take Chris Noble's word for it. Just like everyone takes nature's and Science's "word for it" when they also say Duesberg is full of crap. My guess is that (unlike Chris Noble) 99% of people who take [fill in the blank]'s "word for it" have not actually taken time to examine the "dissident literature" (or even the "orthodox literature" which dissidents allegedly "cherry-pick" and "abuse"). My guess is, 99% of people who dismiss dissidents out of hand do so simply because "everyone else thinks so..." And then everyone wonders why it's NOT impossible for such a blunder to have happened... Jake Posted by: Jake | March 24, 2007 6:51 AM
DT said: "I dismiss dissidents because I have taken the trouble to look in detail at their claims, and found them wanting". DT, as with most of what you have to say, that statement of yours is not true at all! DT dismisses the HIV dissidents because DT is a HIV drug rep to doctors for a pharmaceutical company! Doooohhhh! Posted by: lincoln | April 1, 2007 12:06 AM
This is an example of what happens when someone gets so fixated on an idea that they can't stand to lose an argument over it.
Here's a tip for the denialist fanatics: Just because a concept is acceptable to YOUR mind doesn't mean it is actually true. You may be suffering from psychotic delusions.)))
Indeed, only people who are totally ignorant about how science actually works, as opposed to some lame conspiracy theory they choose to accept without evidence, would make such idiotic arguments as noted above.
Earlier in the comments, an actual scientist, Lynn Margulis, made a statement, listed as comment #16, that indicated that even she was failing in the efforts scientists should make to verify claims.
(((What is an HIV/AIDS denier? Or HIV/AIDS denialist? Peter Duesberg is a fine scientist, I have read his book and examined some of the scientific papers upon which it is based. From the CDC (Center for Disease Control) in Atlanta I have requested the scientific papers that prove the causal relationship between the HIV retrovirus and the IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME commonly known as AIDS. They have never sent even references to the peer-reviewed primary scientific literature that establishes the causal relationship because they can't. Such papers do not exist.
I have seen all four of the films made by Coleman Jones and colleagues in Toronto. Film #3 in the series is most telling. Although no strong evidence exists for any simple causal relationship what is clear is that the HIV claim is erroneous by the standards of microbiology and virology.
When I saw the glowing review of George Miklos, a colleague and a fiercely honest scientist, of Harvey Bialy's book on the scientific life of Peter Duesberg I bought and read Harvey's book. I have also read Celia Farber's superb article in the Lewis Lapham "swansong" issue of Harper's magazine, last March, I believe. Rebecca Culshaw's paper on why she quit AIDS statistical research and Dr. Geschachter's unpublished ms about African AIDS, accepted by the editor and then rejected both substantiated my reluctance to accept the glib "HIV/AIDS" term. I found all of these readings far more convincing than any literature proported to show a HIV-AIDS causal connection.
I heard a talk by a "medical scientist" from the Harvard Medical School at a meeting at Roger Williams Univ in Rhode Island from a supposed expert who attempts to design an HIV vaccine. He claimed the HIV virus mutates a billion times in 48hours. It became clear that the HIV virus has no clear identity. The HIV tests, nearly always positive for pregnant women, that vary significantly in the US, Europe and Australia are particularly disturbing. My son-in-law, James di Properzio spent several months researching this story for the Common Review (the Great Books Foundation in Chicago). His findings were consistent with Celia Farber's and after encouragement from the editor the board reviewed and rejected his draft. "Science is the search for truth" said David Bohm, "whether we like it [the truth] or not. From my readings, discussions with knowledgable scientists close to the story, I simply conclude, as does Kerry Mullis, the Nobel Lauriate who wrote a foreword to Duesberg's classical work that there is no evidence that "HIV causes AIDS". I have no special expertise. I simply seek the evidence for scientific claims, especially when they have dire consequences for the science itself and the treatment..not just medical..of so many people. I have observed that the closer one comes to the study of humans the shoddier the quality of the scientific evidence. Maybe that is one of the reasons that I work with bacteria and protoctists (the eukaryotic microorganisms and their immediate descendants exclusive of plants, animals and fungi). The vast majority of these are harmless to human health. Although I have written about the natural history of the anthrax bacterium, Beethoven's and Nietzsche's syphilis and the work of Hentry Taylor Ricketts with insect-borne pathgens (eg.g, ticks carrying Rocky Mt Spotted fever), in general I avoid the last 3 million years of evolution and any other studies thatrequire detailed knowledge of mammalian, including human, biology. Why? Because political bias, hearsay and gossip are inevitable whereas in the first part of the evolution story (from 3800 until 3 million years ago) politics intervenes far less obtrusively. In pursuit of the story of life and its effects on planet Earth one can be more honest if the earliest atages of evolution are the objects of study. And this way I can lay low and not be "name-called" (i.e., "denialist" ) because I ask hard questions and require solid evidence before I embrace a particular causal hypothesis. Indeed, is not my attitude of inquiry exactly what science is about?
I read comment #16, which says: “From the CDC (Center for Disease Control) in Atlanta I have requested the scientific papers that prove the causal relationship between the HIV retrovirus and the IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME commonly known as AIDS. They have never sent even references to the peer-reviewed primary scientific literature that establishes the causal relationship because they can’t. Such papers do not exist.”
Maybe she should have looked up the papers herself in the relevant science journals instead of asking some bureaucrat to do her investigative work for her! Or does she even know how to do that? Sheesh!
“I heard a talk by a “medical scientist” from the Harvard Medical School at a meeting at Roger Williams Univ in Rhode Island from a supposed expert who attempts to design an HIV vaccine. He claimed the HIV virus mutates a billion times in 48hours. It became clear that the HIV virus has no clear identity.”
Well, if the virus reproduces a billion times in 48 hours, and each example of reproduction is accompanied by a point mutation, then that statement by the scientist is accurate. Point mutations also occur in humans and most other organisms, but that hardly means they have no clear identity!
“In pursuit of the story of life and its effects on planet Earth one can be more honest if the earliest atages of evolution are the objects of study. And this way I can lay low and not be “name-called” (i.e., “denialist” ) because I ask hard questions and require solid evidence before I embrace a particular causal hypothesis. Indeed, is not my attitude of inquiry exactly what science is about?”
Maybe if Margulis would attempt to do some ACTUAL RESEARCH on AIDS/HIV instead of taking at face value the claims of certain people she happens to be fond of because of personal feelings that have nothing to do with either facts or methodologies, SHE WOULD INDEED BE DOING SCIENCE!!!
My regard for Margulis just plummeted! That she was Carl Sagan’s first wife and the mother of his first two children is no excuse for being a blind crackpot. Her days of being a competent scientist are OVER!)))
Remember that next time you hear some crackpot making a claim with no support or using that claim, even if well supported, to argue something the claim does not really address. Having a science degree, or even having done real science in the past, does not excuse abandoning scientific methods at any point to descend into delusions on any subject!
Natural selection describes the process by which variations in a population of organisms is edited out over time to enhance the ability of the individual organisms to survive and reproduce in an environment. Even if over 90% of all mutations, being random, are harmful to the next generation, natural selection can still eliminate those and keep those others that are beneficial, thus countering the destructive effects of mutations in general.
It is the same with the scientific peer review process. Because science has made so much progress over the past few centuries, most people have the impression that scientists are unusually brilliant, nearly infallible, and totally objective in their views and methods. But in fact, that is simply not the case for most of them, at least as individuals. Scientists can be just as mistaken, corrupt, dogmatic, and failing in their efforts and assumptions as the rest of humanity. A few of them can even be downright stupid!
If that is true, how can science be trusted to produce reliable facts and theories? Because the scientists use peer review as their means to test any new ideas put on the table by one of their number. No scientist’s word need be taken at face value. In order for his idea to be accepted as anything beyond a speculation, he must show observational or experimental data, clearly defined, that supports it. Thus, it should always be possible for other scientists to duplicate the results of the first scientist making the claim. If attempts to duplicate the observations or experiments do not produce the same result, the idea is rejected.
Sometimes the peer review process goes too far in its skepticism, and a valid idea, such as continental drift, is rejected and even ridiculed by scientists even though it explains all the data collected and is contradicted by none of it. But that’s why repeated testing of that idea is required, as long as it is not outright falsified. Continental drift WAS accepted in the 1960s once an overwhelming amount of evidence was found to support it and those geologists who had been bigoted against it in the 1920s had died or retired, and a new generation had arisen that was more open-minded. Those who supported the continental drift theory were able to come up with a mechanism, plate tectonics, that explained it, and once they did opposition to it faded away rapidly.
Individual scientists may fall so deeply in love with their own ideas that they refuse to accept the peer review process when it rejects their ideas. Then they become cranks who no longer do science, but instead put out propaganda to appeal to the scientifically illiterate. This is especially true of Creationists and global warming denialists who happen to have science degrees. They even go so far as to attack the peer review process itself! But it must be noted that they can never produce anything that would produce superior results in terms of seeking objective data in the universe and explaining it.
Scientists who refuse to recognize that an idea of theirs is wrong are like a population of organisms that are too specialized in their lifestyle to adapt to any sudden change in their environment, resulting in their extinction. Fortunately, the progress of science continues even in spite of such incidents, just as life on Earth has continued despite the mass extinctions that have wiped out most species that evolved in Earth before.
The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) was a time of increased warmth that is recorded in the history of the North Atlantic region from about 800 AD to 1300 AD. During this period, the extent of the Arctic ice cap was considerably less than today. The purpose of this blog is not to deny the reality of the MWP nor to reject the historical facts associated with it. However, global warming denialists have claimed that because the ice sheets of the Arctic were less extensive than today, the MWP must have been warmer than today and thus there is no reason to think that the current warming period, thought to be caused by man-made greenhouse gases, is in any way unusual. Indeed, they even claim that the readings from scientists indicating that the temperatures of the MWP were lower than today were faked in an effort to deny or cover up the MWP. Thus, I feel it necessary to demonstrate the absurdity of such assumptions.
Let us do an experiment. We take two identical bowls filled with pure water and place them in a freezer. After the water is completely frozen in both bowls, they are removed from the freezer and one, labled “A”, is placed in a refrigerator, while the other, labled “B” is placed on the kitchen table. After about an hour, bowl B has ice that is PARTLY melted. We take a picture of the bowl and then discard it.
A week later, we remove bowl A from the refrigerator. By then, the ice of this bowl is COMPLETELY melted. We take a picture of this bowl and discard it also.
Finally, we present both pictures to someone who knows nothing about the experiment and ask him, “Which bowl would you say looks warmer to you?” He will certainly say, “A”, but he will be wrong, because bowl A was in near freezing temperature for a week before its picture was taken, while bowl B was in room temperature for an hour before its picture was taken.
The point of the experiment is that it is not merely temperature that is the factor in melting water, but TIME as well. The Medieval Warm Period was indeed a natural event, and thus its arrival was gradual and so was its ending. The ice sheets in the Medieval Warm Period were less extensive because it lasted for several centuries, unlike the current warming period, which has lasted for only a few decades. Thus, the picture of bowl A could represent the Arctic ice cap at the height of the MWP, while the pic of bowl B could represent the Arctic ice cap today. Higher temperatures, but less time to melt the ice cap.
Thus, there is absolutely NO basis for the slanderous claims made against the scientists who have studied the progress of global warming in this present time. Indeed, if the MWP had been only three or four degrees F warmer than today’s average temperatures, we should have expected to see an almost total meltdown of both the Arctic and Antarctic ice caps, resulting in a massive rise in sea levels around the world. And history records NO such thing!
I have coined the term “automatic credibility” to refer to the tendency to accept as fact a questionable statement made by a person, even if they person does not produce definite evidence to support his claim. Most people would grant automatic credibility to his parents, his close friends, or a religious leader in his chosen faith. But as a Honorable Skeptic, my ideal would be to grant to NO ONE that privilege and to regard all claims by all people with equal suspicion. In a court of law, in a science journal, and in diplomatic dealings between nations, automatic credibility is usually not an issue. Nor should it be with anyone, about anything. If we could achieve this goal, a lot of lying, cheating, and backstabbing in things like politics would end.
It is common knowledge that about five billion years from now, the Sun will use up its hydrogen fuel in its core, swell up into a red giant, destroy the inner planets, and collapse into a white dwarf. Most people assume that will be the end of the story, but perhaps not....
Six billion years from now, the remains of the Solar System passes through a nebula and the Sun's gravity begins to pull gas onto it. Soon, the Sun acquires so much mass that it collapses further into a neutron star. Meanwhile, the planet Jupiter also gains mass from the surrounding gas. Eventually, Jupiter becomes massive enough to ignite thermonuclear reactions in its core, becoming a star. It even acquires a new planet, which I'll call Euphoria, that is nearly as massive as Earth once was. The gravitational dance of the Sun and Jupiter causes the planets beyond Jupiter to be tossed out into interstellar space.
Ten billion years from now, Euphoria has intelligent life forms living on it, including astronomers. With Earth long since destroyed, there will be no traces of us left for them to know about. It will be as it we had never existed, and from their point of view, the Solar System as it was would probably be only a wild speculation, much like this essay.