If Women and Minorities Go to the Polls, Obama Will Win

Buried in the data of the recent polls is something that should force Democrats to stay focused: Mitt Romney continues to dominate among wealthy white males.

Don’t misunderstand — the fact that Romney will win white males is both unsurprising and not, in and of itself, a reason for concern. White males hold a disproportionate share of the power in America, and Mitt Romney has been running as the candidate of the possessed, the uptrodden, the people who have their servants put their pants on one leg at a time like everyone else. Of course Romney garners more support from the very people who are helped most by the status quo. Indeed, Republicans have gained the support of white men for some time, and the GOP has built its platform around the real and imagined concerns of rich white men.

If it was 1980, when America was whiter than it is now, this might be enough to doom Obama. It’s 2012, though, and Obama benefits from his strong support from traditionally disenfranchised groups.  Since the vote of an African American woman counts precisely the same as the vote of a white man, those voters have propelled the president to a small-but-stable lead in the polls.

But while relatively-affluent white men are not enough to swing the election to Romney, they do help him in one significant area: they turn out.

Barack Obama’s supporters skew younger, less white, and less affluent than Romney voters do. If women, poorer voters, and non-white voters don’t get to the polls in November, a 3-point lead can quickly turn into a 2-point deficit.

“It is mission critical that women turn out in November,” said Jess McIntosh, a spokesperson for EMILY’s List, a pro-choice advocacy group. “In 2008, 10 million more women turned out to vote than men did, and we all know what happened. In 2010, those women stayed home, and we ended up with the Tea Party House.”

Turnout is Key

Republicans have been assiduously courting white men since 1968, when Richard Nixon launched the Southern Strategy, in which Republicans sought to pick off racist white Southerners disaffected by the Civil Rights Act. This strategy helped flip the “solid South” from blue to red, and helped elect Nixon, Reagan, and both Bushes, not to mention the Gingrich House and the Boehner House.

The GOP’s strategy has mostly been to use social issues and resentment of women and African-Americans to drive white males to the polls. From abortion to gay rights to welfare to flag burning, the GOP strategy has been to define Democrats as being against “real America” — an America that is white and straight, where women know their place.

This strategy worked well, but it is running into a demographic wall. The country is becoming less white as years go by, and women are asserting themselves in the political and economic realms. Mitt Romney has tried gamely to use the old playbook one last time, though, and that’s keeping the race close enough that if women and non-white voters don’t turn out, he could still find a way to win.

“That’s why EMILY’s List is so focused on getting these women to the polls – we know how to communicate with them, and we have a fantastic story to tell with a record number of strong Democratic women candidates — and a President with a great record on women,” McIntosh said.

The 2012 election looks like it will be close. If turnout looks like it did in 2010, Mitt Romney will be able to win the White House on the strength of white male support. If Democrats can get turnout to resemble 2008, however, Barack Obama will win.

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Image Credit: Donkey Hotey


Bill Reese
Bill Reese3 years ago

I suppose there is a reason that Michael G. changed is name to Michael M. Did he get caught by Care2 with his finger in the pie?? shame!

Lee Witton
3 years ago

So typical of Bogus Bill to be telling ANOTHER big one. He could pole vault with that nose of his!

Michael M.
Michael T.3 years ago

Looks like we have you spot on for telling a big one and claiming other people did.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised since this matches up with how you are.

Justin Case
James Taylor3 years ago

Bill R
1:46PM PDT on Oct 22, 2012
FDR was probably our 5th best president, with Lincoln, Jefferson, Washington, Teddy Roosevelt, Reagan, Eisenhower, all ahead of FDR

Read more: http://www.care2.com/causes/if-women-and-minorities-go-to-the-polls-obama-will-win.html#ixzz2A4l8HBQB

I think Michael M has you pegged here Bill. You said the very thing he claimed @ 1:16 and then said what he also claimed at 1:46. It is all there in the record Bill.

Nobody changed what you said.

And I think I would rely more on what Kevin had to say about the law.

You said what you said.

Michael M just repeated it back.

It doesn’t look like he changed a thing.

So, just like in the past, it looks like you are the one that is lying. And claiming that the other side has changed things.

Maybe it’s time for you to take a nap. Been a long day has it?

Bill Reese
Bill Reese3 years ago

Ha Ha, you two are really trying to build a mountain out of a mole hill. Michael G, when you change what I say, then you are making yourself a liar. You have a constitutional right to say what you want when you want but not to change what I said and them make like I said it. Sorry
I really do not want to call you a liar, but then when you are so full of yourself it is time to tell it for the truth.

Kevin Brown
Kevin Brown3 years ago

Bill R.- Where did you get that claptrap from? Glenn Beck's newest "book"?

Michael M.
Michael T.3 years ago

This just in. Thanks to the GOP, the Koch brothers, Adelson, Pope, Rove and others America is shamed.

Republican attempts to reduce voter turnout in minority neighborhoods are so widespread that, at the request of American civil rights groups, international monitors will oversee our elections:

United Nations-affiliated election monitors from Europe and central Asia will be at polling places around the U.S. looking for voter suppression activities by conservative groups, a concern raised by civil rights groups during a meeting this week.[...]

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), a United Nations partner on democratization and human rights projects, will deploy 44 observers from its human rights office around the country on Election Day to monitor an array of activities, including potential disputes at polling places. It's part of a broader observation mission that will send out an additional 80 to 90 members of parliament from nearly 30 countries.

Liberal-leaning civil rights groups met with representatives from the OSCE this week to raise their fears about what they say are systematic efforts to suppress minority voters likely to vote for President Obama.

Michael M.
Michael T.3 years ago


Did you see that?

FDR went from NOT one of our greatest presidents to position number 6 within less than 10 minutes!!!

Of course, the moment that was typed we had to call him a communist, a socialist, Marxist, muslim, or something to immediately downgrade him.


One wonders if this is from a Texas approved history textbook or if it was from a white nationalist site.

Bill Reese
Bill Reese3 years ago

FDR was probably our 5th best president, with Lincoln, Jefferson, Washington, Teddy Roosevelt, Reagan, Eisenhower, all ahead of FDR who gave away millions of dollars to the communist countries. The first 6 are in no particular order.

Your hero FDR was only elected for the four terms due to the communication challenges of the time. He was the beginning of our liberal socialism. That should give you two some great food for being critical as you usually are on this site.

Kevin Brown
Kevin Brown3 years ago

Well Bill R. your reading comprehension is as good as your logic it seems because I said "if this was 1936..."

By the way FDR is considered by most all historians as one of our greatest, if not the greatest president in U.S. history, so I don't know what you are reading. Probably more lame garbage from the right wing bubble. Please, step out of the echo chamber and into reality.