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MN Gay Marriage Ban Statistical Underdog?

MN Gay Marriage Ban Statistical Underdog?

 

Number crunching for the New York Times respected statistician Nate Silver has predicted that Minnesota’s 2012 ballot initiative to codify a ban on same-sex marriage in the state is likely, though not certain, to fail.

In 2009 Silver created a statistical model designed to predict “the percentage of the vote that gay marriage-related ballot initiatives will receive.”

Citing New York’s decision to legalize same-sex marriage, Silver has now revisited this model and has expanded upon it based on two primary assumptions:

The Linear Model assumes that support for same-sex marriage is increasing at the same rate every year;

The Accelerated Model utilizes a more optimistic trend from national polls on same-sex marriage.

The full analysis is supremely interesting, but is particularly so in reference to Minnesota’s 2012 referendum which, based on both versions of the model, would seem a close call.

Under the Accelerated Model, the amendment would fail receiving just 49 percent of the vote, yet by the more conservative Linear Model it would pass with 54 percent, both obviously within the models’ respective margins for error.

However, things are never quite that straightforward, and Silver highlights that there are some other factors to consider here.

From The New York Times:

One additional factor, however, is that Minnesota rules require a majority of all voters to cast a ballot in favor of a constitutional amendment in order for it to pass. So someone who turns out to vote next November and punches her ballot only for the presidential election is essentially a “no”¯ vote. Historically, about 5 percent of Minnesota voters undervote constitutional amendment proposals despite casting ballots for other races, so what this means is that the ban on same-sex marriage will de facto need something like 52 percent of the vote in order to pass. For this reason, I’d conclude that the Minnesota measure is a slight underdog.

In addition, the most recent poll in the state finds that 55 percent of voters oppose the ban on same-sex marriage while 39 percent support it. Polls on this issue have historically underestimated the support for bans on same-sex marriage but not by such a wide margin to account for this discrepancy. Instead, the rule of thumb is that you should assume that all undecided voters will vote for the marriage ban. But since an outright majority of Minnesotans oppose the initiative in the poll — even after accounting for the undecided — it provides some meaningful guidance.

The ban is certainly not a heavy favorite to be defeated: see this blog post for someone who thinks it will pass, and consider that there are two plausible Republican presidential nominees from Minnesota, which could affect the dynamics of the vote. But I’d set something like 5-to-3 odds against its passage.

North Carolina is also expected to consider an amendment to constitutionally enshrine a ban same-sex marriage and, unlike Minnesota, is predicted under both the Linear Model (60%) and the Accelerated Model (54%) to pass the ban. However, Silver points out that the text of the ban appears to also include domestic partnerships. This has historically been a handicap for such initiatives, meaning there is yet room for LGBT rights advocates to narrow that margin and capitalize on more recent liberal trends.

The analysis throws up some other talking points too.

A cautious Linear Model look at California suggests that 54 percent would vote down a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. Similarly, 55 percent of voters in Oregon would refuse a ballot initiative on same-sex marriage today based on the more conservative Linear model.

However, Silver warns this analysis does not include a calculation for overturning a ban, only the likelihood of how voters would approach the question of banning same-sex marriage when asked now. Overturning a ban, while subtle distinction, may introduce different factors. Even so, this is interesting as California equality groups continue to flirt with the idea of a ballot initiative to overturn Proposition 8.

Iowa residents may be interested to hear that both models indicate that, if voting today, Iowa voters would vote to ban same-sex marriage in the state (52 or 58 percent of voters for the Accelerated and Linear models respectively). However, Silver points out this doesn’t account for the cumbersome ballot initiative process which makes any such effort unlikely to succeed until at least 2013 by which time, even by the conservative linear progression of support, the margins will have narrowed considerably to the point where Iowa voters may be swayed against a ban.

Talks of overturning New Hampshire’s same-sex marriage law would seem on even less fertile ground, with the public expected under both models to reject an amendment by as much as 60 percent.

While there are of course factors that can not be accounted for in such statistical readings, Silver’s predictions generally show that states with same-sex marriage on the books are unlikely to see a reversal, that states without gay marriage bans are overall unlikely to enact such a ban, and that as public support continues to increase more states would be expected to favor same-sex marriage.

How long that will take to translate into states overturning constitutional amendments or statutes banning same-sex marriage remains to be seen however.

See Silver’s full methodology, analysis, and results here.

Related Reading:

MN Pro Gay Marriage Republican: War Experience Taught Me the Importance of Love (VIDEO)

MN Gov Dayton Symbolically Vetoes Gay Marriage Ban Amendment (VIDEO)

SPLC Demands Minnesota Address LGBT Harassment

 

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Photo used under the MorgueFile user license, with thanks to mensatic.

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25 comments

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1:42PM PDT on Jul 24, 2011

Let's hope the 55% of Minnesotans who oppose the gay marriage ban get out and vote in 1012! I'll be there.

5:31AM PDT on Jul 24, 2011

Hoping Minnesota’s 2012 ballot initiative fails!

12:25AM PDT on Jul 24, 2011

its good that the gay marrage has increased every year. it means that people arent so ashamed of being who that are more and more every year. im happy for them.

6:04AM PDT on Jul 8, 2011

Thanks for the article.

9:14PM PDT on Jul 7, 2011

It doesn't matter, Zee....the divorce rate is none of our business. I suspect same-sex couples will go through the same process as everyone who marries....some will last and some won't. It's just not our business.

It's nobody's business whom I marry, what I do with my uterus, how I choose to live my reproductive life and whether or not I pray. Unfortunately, the Republican party (you remember...they're the believers in "small government") don't agree.

VOTE AGAINST THEM!

11:28AM PDT on Jul 7, 2011

I wonder what the divorce rate will be now that they can.

11:09AM PDT on Jul 7, 2011

I think that every person has a right to love and be loved. It does not matter to me one iota if they are gay. Love is an emotion that everyone should experience and pass along to others.

Now to add some levity to the comments posted, a friend of mine (who is gay) said the other day:

God doesn't hate gays, he's just mad that they found a loophole in the system.....

Now some of you may not find this amusing, but please take it tongue in cheek for that how it was meant...

11:08AM PDT on Jul 7, 2011

Was America not founded for religious freedom?

9:31AM PDT on Jul 7, 2011

Detlef K, you use the word "undermine". What the hell does that mean specifically, anyway? From all I have seen, heard and read, by "undermine our culture, society and families" you mean that you will "no longer be able to repress." You and your type are so hateful. The god you believe in can NOT be pleased by your uneducated, irrational dogma. Grow up, you coward.

8:43AM PDT on Jul 7, 2011

For pity's sake, why are some people *SO* terrified of gay marriage? I would rather have a happy, gay couple living next door that some constantly fighting, angry heterosexual couple. What they do in their bedroom is their own business, and it concerns me no more than what the straight couple down the street is doing. If two men or two women choose to become life partners, how does that affect my relationship with my wife? Am I going to love her less (NO) because somewhere, two gay people pledged their love for each other? Sorry, folks - I just don't get it. I remember an obscure quote from Robert Bloch in a science fiction story where a human had (sort of) married an alien - "It seems that the had learned the ultra-civilized art of minding their own business"

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