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Obama Losing In Key Swing States

Obama Losing In Key Swing States

President Barack Obama may be doing well compared to his Republican challengers in overall nationwide polling, but state by state electoral votes will be what really matters in the end. And in that regard, the incumbent looks like he’d better get working.

A new poll out by Gallup has Obama trailing Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, with Obama trailing Romney by 5 points and Gingrich by 3.

Via USA Today:

Most other states and the District of Columbia are all but guaranteed to be won by one party or the other, giving Obama a likely base of 196 electoral votes and the Republican nominee a base of 191. A candidate needs 270 to win the White House.

But these battlegrounds chosen based on their voting histories, the results of the 2010 midterms and demographic trends are up for grabs. Obama carried all of them in 2008 and needs to claim half of their electoral votes this time to win a second term.

In swing states, Obama trails former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney among registered voters by 5 points, 43% vs. 48%, and former House speaker Newt Gingrich by 3, 45% vs. 48%.

That’s a bit worse than the president fares nationwide, where he leads Gingrich 50%-44% and edges Romney 47%-46%.

Even more daunting for the reelection campaign? The number of Democrats in these states have gone down, while the number of those identifying as Republican or Independent has increased. Politico reports, “During the same period, the number of Republicans rose 5 percentage points, while the number of independents increased by a whopping 7 points from 35 percent in 2008 to 42 percent. In the 12 swing states, 44 percent of those surveyed are conservatives and 21 percent are liberal.”

Without a way to swing those Independents to his side, Obama could be looking at a new home in 2013.

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118 comments

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3:48AM PST on Dec 17, 2011

It is always my pleasure to exchange information with nice people here on Care 2. I believe we are all here to learn from each other and when there are well written posts from both sides it is most enjoyable here on the public political forum...at least it is for me.

I learn something new every day and I hope that never ends. Your comments have been noted. There's so much wrong with our country today and we desperately need a president who "gets it."

Keep your passion alive. You will attract many just by the way you write who will read your well detailed concerns for your country. Once we become angry and stoop to name calling we literally hand our power over and no one listens. Keep your power the way you have here and continue to get your message out.

4:30PM PST on Dec 16, 2011

(Continued from below)

citizens of America, yes, including myself.

Thank you for the intelligent, respectful debate you've presented here, Diane. I have much respect for you based on this, even if we don't agree.

4:28PM PST on Dec 16, 2011

@Diane O.: Yes, I'm passionate about it. But, I also understand exactly what you said because that was me in the last special election. I voted for a bunch of Republicans because they promised to secure the border, end "anchor babies", and stop handing out taxpayer money to illegals via welfare. The problem is, I concentrated on the border problem to the exclusion of all else and ended up electing people who are completely out of line with the rest of my beliefs and who have done way more harm than good while in office. They have failed to to improve even a single issue that I voted for them based on.

I understand that we need to fix the economy. I get that, I really do. But we cannot focus on that one thing to the exclusion of all else, especially not the civil rights of other American citizens. That is what I see so much on here and why I am so passionate about certain things. I don't want others to make the same mistake I did in the last election - to be so completely worried about one thing that we vote out-of-line with what is best for America. Civil Rights should be the forethought of everyone: They are the basis for equality that we have fought for for over a century of American history.

I'm not discounting what you believe is best for the economy or our job situation. I'm simply asking that you view all aspects of the fight and keep in your mind the consideration that voting Republican in 2012 will have a very detrimental impact to the rights of many

3:44PM PST on Dec 16, 2011

Jason, it's clear that you are passionate about this. All I can say is that I understand why you feel the way you do. I don't have the answers. My focus is on fixing the economy and bringing back the jobs for ALL Americans including gays and lesbians.

3:36PM PST on Dec 16, 2011

@Diane O.: I'm sure my LGBT friends will be as "wonderfully happy" as I am to know that we are expected to give up our rights that we have fought so hard for just to fix the economy and all the while allowing you to keep your rights fully intact.

Why don't you give up your right to vote? Why don't you give up your right to work? Then you don't have to worry about politics OR the economy anymore. Sounds fair to me...NOT.

They are perfectly capable of reversing the groundwork that has been laid. It wouldn't even be all that difficult, really, since it's been such a short time that we've had these rights and they've been so controversial (not that they should be since we ARE humans, after all). In many cases, legal precedent hasn't even been set yet, although we are trying to get there. Don't fool yourself that we're going to let our rights go easily. Don't fool yourself that the Republican, vocal anti-LGBT forces won't be able to repeal those rights if given the White House. I'm not against Republicans just because of their party. I don't vote along party lines. I actually voted for several Republicans during the special elections. I AM against anyone who expresses anti-LGBT, anti-Civil-Rights sentiments, however, and, in this case, that includes all of the Republican candidates for President. That's just the way it works out.

3:20PM PST on Dec 16, 2011

We have to address the economy and jobs first, Jason. Because without that corrected nothing else will be important. Patience, my friend. It will be very difficult to reverse the progress that has already been made for gays and lesbians.

3:17PM PST on Dec 16, 2011

Yes, Diane, there are many, many different issues. However, some, such as civil rights, have a higher priority than others. I think this may be the only way to explain myself as well as I want to:

LGBT persons have recently received the right, in many locales, to get married, adopt children, serve in the military, and generally live their lives happily. Yet, these Republican candidates are threatening to remove all of those civil rights.

Would you, as a female, support them if they were trying to revoke your right to vote, your right to work, and your right to divorce someone who beat you? You have enjoyed having all these rights since they were given to you after your predecessors fought so hard to get them. Are you willing to give them up? No? Then how can you demand that LGBT persons give up their rights? That is what you are demanding if you vote Republican in 2012. You are demanding that LGBT persons sacrifice their rights, but you aren't willing to sacrifice yours.

That is exactly why, if no viable, Independent candidate appears, I will vote for Obama. Because I will not ask LGBT persons to give up their rights because I am not willing to give up mine.

DISCLAIMER: You are also asking me to give up my rights as I, myself, am Bisexual. Therefore, you are not willing to give up your right to vote or work, but you are demanding that I give up my rights for you. Selfish much?

2:39PM PST on Dec 16, 2011

Jason, there are many issues this country must face and resolve.

2:01PM PST on Dec 16, 2011

Based on the past 5 comments, I cry for America in 2012. When there are people willing to violate a large segment of the population's civil rights to vote for a particular party and when there are people willing to hand America over to the corporate interests and the 1% just because they are "at least honest about screwing us," we are screwed. It's time I start job hunting outside of the United States to prepare for the disaster that will hit us next year. Even my teenagers understand the concept.

Diane O.: If you believe, even for one second, that any of the viable Republican candidates are NOT anti-LGBT, you are seriously deluding yourself. They are very ready to reinstate "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and they are very ready to repeal gay marriage. This violates the civil rights of my friends and family just as African-Americans had their civil rights violated during slavery and just as those of many different religions had their civil rights violated during the Salem Witch Trials. I'll not support the repeal of Civil Rights.

1:51PM PST on Dec 16, 2011

Jamie, you would be 100% correct. Obama stated he would raise $1 billion for his campaign. So, where is that coming from and why was he confident enough about it to make the statement. That's right...pledges and in turn he would have to pay them back in the ways that only the political machine can do through earmarks, going green (think Solyndra)etc. We should research Obama's "Friday Night Dumps" to see what they have pushed through after everyone has gone home for the weekend. That will tell an interesting story.

We need a leader. We need someone we believe can reach across the aisle when needed and lay out a win/win solution based on the facts. I'll concede any day to get 50% of what I need for the country. Instead, Obama has been "The Divider In Chief" stoking the fire with his partisanship and in so doing has removed himself from doing the job he was elected to do and that is bringing the two parties together. I have to believe Obama hasn't had an original idea since he was sworn in and the congress knows it. We'll have many books hit the shelves after Obama loses in 2012 and then we'll all get a better picture of how Washington feels about him. But, enough about him. We need to save our country from another four years of neglect.

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