The Conservative Canary in New York
posted by: Jessica Pieklo 23 days ago
Quite a bit of attention has gone to special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District. The race has become a symbol of the split in the Republican party, as moderate Dede Scozzafava faced a tough challenge from Conservative party candidate Doug Hoffman. Scozzafava, a fiscal conservative and social moderate was the favored candidate of the national party in a district that is traditionally safe land for the GOP.
Meanwhile Hoffman's candidacy represents the continued efforts by conservatives in the party to move the foundation even further to the right. Hoffman campaigned against Scozzafava's pro-choice and pro-marriage equality positions as symbols of all that ills the Republican party. Along the way he picked up some interesting support from Republicans with an eye on the 2012 presidential elections such as Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. But until just recently, Hoffman's candidacy was seen as "third-party", as outside the norm, as quite frankly, a little radical.
But the fight took on a whole new tone once Scozzafava withdrew endorsed her Democratic rival Bill Owens rather than throw her support behind Hoffman. What happens in District 23 will say a lot about the state of national politics.
For starters, if Hoffman wins then it will truly be a testament to the power of the Dick Armey machine and the rise of hard-line social conservatives as the "mainstream" of the Republican party. A Hoffman win would also cast some inadvertent legitimacy to the embryonic campaign aspirations for Pawlenty who has often faced the criticism that as a Republican governor in a Democratic state he would not "sell" to the GOP conservative base. Most importantly, it would seal the philosophical lurch of the GOP even more to the right.
But what about an Owens win? As a social moderate Scozzafava's voters may join her support and vote for the Democrat, but it is no guarantee. If they do, then we could argue that we've found the political center--that "mainstream" political values are truly socially moderate and fiscally conservative and that now Democrats as a whole represent those mainstream political values.
An Owens win further supports the argument that the radical fringe is behind the wheel of the GOP since this district is traditionally Republican and not solidly behind the Obama administration's spending efforts. Neither was Scozzafava. In fact, Scozzafava was in favor of limiting the government's presence in one's life which is how she explained her socially moderate beliefs-- not as a lifestyle endorsement but as another example of fighting against governmental overreach into the lives of American citizens.
If those moderate Republican voters defect to Owens, and if the far right continues its stranglehold on power, who is to say those moderates ever return? Not that such a scenario is a good one for the Democrats if they have any hope of passing domestic policy reforms. It's not. But in some ways Democrats are better situated to absorb such an influx of conservative influence since, as a party, it typically allows for a larger diversion of opinion than the GOP. We see this playing out with health care and will witness the same with energy legislation. The point is the Democrats tolerate ideological diversity, even if it kills their agenda. And an influx of Scozzafava supporters will only exacerbate that tendency at the expense of any meaningful change.
Regardless of the outcome, this is a race that will be watched, and discussed, long after the votes are counted. Who's the real conservative? What's the future of the GOP? I guess we'll know Tuesday night.
Meanwhile Hoffman's candidacy represents the continued efforts by conservatives in the party to move the foundation even further to the right. Hoffman campaigned against Scozzafava's pro-choice and pro-marriage equality positions as symbols of all that ills the Republican party. Along the way he picked up some interesting support from Republicans with an eye on the 2012 presidential elections such as Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. But until just recently, Hoffman's candidacy was seen as "third-party", as outside the norm, as quite frankly, a little radical.
But the fight took on a whole new tone once Scozzafava withdrew endorsed her Democratic rival Bill Owens rather than throw her support behind Hoffman. What happens in District 23 will say a lot about the state of national politics.
For starters, if Hoffman wins then it will truly be a testament to the power of the Dick Armey machine and the rise of hard-line social conservatives as the "mainstream" of the Republican party. A Hoffman win would also cast some inadvertent legitimacy to the embryonic campaign aspirations for Pawlenty who has often faced the criticism that as a Republican governor in a Democratic state he would not "sell" to the GOP conservative base. Most importantly, it would seal the philosophical lurch of the GOP even more to the right.
But what about an Owens win? As a social moderate Scozzafava's voters may join her support and vote for the Democrat, but it is no guarantee. If they do, then we could argue that we've found the political center--that "mainstream" political values are truly socially moderate and fiscally conservative and that now Democrats as a whole represent those mainstream political values.
An Owens win further supports the argument that the radical fringe is behind the wheel of the GOP since this district is traditionally Republican and not solidly behind the Obama administration's spending efforts. Neither was Scozzafava. In fact, Scozzafava was in favor of limiting the government's presence in one's life which is how she explained her socially moderate beliefs-- not as a lifestyle endorsement but as another example of fighting against governmental overreach into the lives of American citizens.
If those moderate Republican voters defect to Owens, and if the far right continues its stranglehold on power, who is to say those moderates ever return? Not that such a scenario is a good one for the Democrats if they have any hope of passing domestic policy reforms. It's not. But in some ways Democrats are better situated to absorb such an influx of conservative influence since, as a party, it typically allows for a larger diversion of opinion than the GOP. We see this playing out with health care and will witness the same with energy legislation. The point is the Democrats tolerate ideological diversity, even if it kills their agenda. And an influx of Scozzafava supporters will only exacerbate that tendency at the expense of any meaningful change.
Regardless of the outcome, this is a race that will be watched, and discussed, long after the votes are counted. Who's the real conservative? What's the future of the GOP? I guess we'll know Tuesday night.
Read more: politics, congress, new york, scozzafava, district 23
comments
When talking about an era, ie: Bush's eight year era, you could consider it an era. When you say Obama's era, you lose me - has he been President longer than I thought, or has an era become less than a year!?
Lync
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I live in the 23rd, and I have nothing positive to say about this election. Our elections have always been respectful and dignified. Our representative has been an independent, although solidly conservative gentleman. I would have enjoyed a race between DeDe Scozzafava and Bill Owens. I've met with DeDe in her office as state assemblyman, and she is highly knowledgeable about our biggest issues. Owens is a retired Air Force officer who has been involved in the economic renewal of the former Plattsburg Air Force Base. There would have been positive campaigning on both sides. The interlopers from the far right injected attack ads and leaflet blizzards to turn the campaign negative. The greatest casualty will be DeDe Scozzafava's career. Win or lose, Owens will get more votes than any Democrat in memory. He actually has a chance to win. There hasn't been a Democrat Congressman from this district in 150 years or so. DeDe served the north country well, as a mayor and as an assemblywoman. The far right threw her under the bus, and they're smiling about it.
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Tony S, why do you feel that Obama's health care plan is going to "bring this country down on its knees," when he inherited a pile of garbage from the Bush administration that had already brought the country down on its knees? I remain cautiously hopeful that Obama will get us back on our feet, though I can't begin to imagine how he's going to do it. As for people "reacting" if there is no well-being in the wings for this country, I think you're a little "off" there; people don't react, period. They're too complacent. Therefore, whoever planned that the big corporations take over the government certainly had a good sense of timing. Since Bush/Cheney wouldn't have, how is Obama gonna buck THAT?
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Ok, only a prog/lliberal would call this woman's record moderate which is likely why you fail to see her disconnect with both her district and many Repubs/indies elsewhere. If you fail to understand that, you are simply putting your spin on the situation which is meaningless to the populace at large.
No, the disconnect was huge. Witness how quick she ran to bless the Dem (who actually would be a better congressman than her too). Just like the DNC with Lieberman last year, the GOP bureaucrats ignored the locals and got spanked. No way a person with the baggage of both ACORN and the SEIU (abortion was a much lesser distraction I think for most) on her record was going to represent even a mainstream Repub district, never mind a conservative one. So now we may geta 3d party congressman! That is great news for those of us sick of the Repub/Dem duopoly
Anyway, both parties have played this game. Currently yours is ranting at the Blue Dogs. Of course we don't want to look there do we for any signs of Dem problems?
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James D.... Are you for real? No really! Much of Obama's loot came from OFFSHORE via Soros. Wake up!
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Two things here:
1. Dede Scozzafava withdrew after plummeting poll numbers. At least some of the collapse in those numbers were due to the perception that Scozzfava would support unpopular government actions. This election is most likely to go to the Conservative Party candidate; regardless of ones sympathies. Not everyone is Liberal folks. And at lot of people don't like what is going on in DC.
2. from:.Marc S...... "But we are a functioning democracy of the highest order"....... Nope. Not even close. Washington is run by Special Interests, PACS and powerful Corporations. Any honest person in DC will tell you that. That is; unless your version of Democracy is a lot different than mine.
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Tony S. The health care plans in Congress are not great; I think Democrats could do better than that; but it does not hide the fact that we need real health care in this country. We are spending more money, it does not cover everybody, it is expensive and limits coverage and worst of all we do not even get good outcomes.
I do not think that spending more in health care will make us healthier, but as long as health care is viewed as a business that has to make a profit, doctors, insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies, suppliers will charge as much as they want; and we will be paying through our nose because when we get really sick we need treatment and care.
There are other health care models in the world apart from the Canadian and the British; we have the German and Japanese model and honestly I will not mind having those systems in this country but there is one thing that these countries have done: they have removed the profit out of the system; they use their bargaining power to negotiate for better prices in drugs and procedures and have capped premiums; people are happy and a lot healthier than us.
We can get real health care reform, we need some willingness to move this along and please do not just blame Democrats, Republicans have the White House for the past 8 years, have control of congress for most of the past 15 years and what all of them have done to improve our health care system?
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Hoffman does not live in the 23rd, and 95% of his campaign money comes from Out of the State! It is a case of the Far Right Repubs trying to take over places in which they don't even have a personal stake.
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Lily sounds just like ex-best friend who was a ditto head and lived for faux news. I might also mention she was bi-polar and a crack addict. Which is not to say such things about lily, just that the right wing is quite diverse,
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Sorry Tony but the Canadian health care is great for lots of Canadians. I have a cousin who became a Canadian citizen a couple years ago and their health care was one Reason why. Yeah if you are rich you can come to the USA and plunk down a few hundred thousand for some specal procedures but lately Americans are flying to India to get surgeries that they cannot afford in the USA. All the doctors in the US are from foreign countries anyway so what is the difference. I know poor people who cannot get ANY healthcare in the USA, dying for lack of care. Grayson said it right, the Republican health care plan is "DIE QUICKLY"
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