Is the Massachusetts senate seat ripe for a party flip? A new poll on the senate race shows that Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren is currently leading Republican incumbent Scott Brown by 4 percentage points, a lead that is just barely within the poll’s 4.4 percent margin of error.
According to the poll, Brown is still leading with Independents, but a growing number are undecided, adding to the pool of potential Warren pickups. Brown also leads with those in the highest income bracket, but Warren is the solid preference for those of the lower or middle class. “Brown’s support is higher by 6 points among those making more than $100,000 (42 percent for Warren vs. 48 percent for Brown). Warren’s candidacy appears to resonate strongly among lower and middle class voters. Respondents earning $40,000-$100,000 support Warren by 11 points (48 percent to 37 percent), while those making less than $40,000 support her by of 15 points (42 percent to 27 percent).”
Warren also takes a larger percentage of the women’s vote than Brown does, another factor that bodes well for her campaign, as 20 percent of women are still undecided while only 9 percent of men are.
The senate seat is expected to be one of the most highly contested races in the country, with outside money and support flowing in for both candidates. Karl Rove’s superPAC has already designated it as one of their key focuses, while progressive and women’s organizations are stepping up to help Warren.
Photo from david shankbone via flickr.