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Why Is Illegal Immigration Dropping in the US?

Why Is Illegal Immigration Dropping in the US?

 

Written by Michelle Mittelstadt

Editor’s Note: A recent New York Times op-ed by Dowell Myers argues that we need to shift from an “immigration policy,” focused on border enforcement, to an “immigrant policy” focused on the integration of those who are already here. The argument is based on reports that illegal immigration to the United States has dropped dramatically. Michelle Mittelstadt, director of communications for the Migration Policy Institute, takes a closer look behind the numbers in the context of global migration trends.

Illegal immigration to the United States has plummeted, with inflows significantly dampened by continuing weaknesses in the labor market and beefed-up enforcement at the U.S. borders and within the interior.

Other factors are at play as well: Changing demographics in Mexico and El Salvador that are reducing migration pressures; the likelihood of more vibrant Mexican and Central American export markets (and hence job opportunities) as the Chinese yuan takes on more strength and makes goods from China more expensive; and increasingly attractive destinations for migrants elsewhere in the hemisphere, including Canada, Brazil, and Chile.

Illegal immigration is the migration flow most responsive to labor market changes, so it makes sense this has been the one most disrupted (in the United States and other major immigrant-receiving countries) as a result of the Great Recession. Who wants to undertake an expensive, risky, potentially dangerous trip if there is not the certainty of a job waiting at the other end? Particularly if the word is out that enforcement has heightened, not only at the borders but within the U.S. interior as a result of more robust federal enforcement as well as actions by a number of states.

Legal immigration flows to the United States have been far less affected by the global economic uncertainty. The most recent reports from the State Department and Department of Homeland Security Office of Immigration Statistics show a continuing strong demand for immigrant visas. (Keep in mind that a significant share of green cards are actually given to people already living and working in the United States on non-immigrant visas, such as the H-1B visa.) A look at the latest grants of green cards, though, will show a slight uptick in green cards for new arrivals.

What has gone down slightly is adjustment of status for people already in the United States, and that most likely has more to do with adjudications and processing than it does with a reduced desire to come to the United States.

A look at the most recent non-immigrant admissions (H-1B, student visas, intracompany transfers, etc.) shows that most categories are up, which suggests there is not a lessening of interest in the United States as a work/life destination.

Internationally, estimates by the United Nations dating to 1990 have shown that about 3 percent of the world’s population, or 214 million people, is comprised of international migrants. While that figure has held largely steady as a share of the world’s population, what has changed in recent decades is the increasing concentration of that migrant population in wealthy countries. While the recession may have dampened some movement for a time, there are some interesting realignments that may be taking place. For example:

In Latin America, Brazil and Chile, for example, have been proving more attractive draws for regional migration as their economies have outperformed those of their neighbors.

In Asia, there will be more intra-Asian international migration, lessening the pool of highly skilled migrants currently inclined towards North America or Europe. Part of that is because of very different demographics in the region, with some populations, such as China’s, aging more rapidly than others.

In Europe, countries that were historically countries of emigration but that became countries of immigration in recent years (Ireland and Greece in particular) may be reverting to their pasts. There are many anecdotal stories of skilled Greeks striking out for Australia, the Irish fanning out across Europe and the United States, the Portuguese heading back to the Lusophone world that was once a part of their empire (particularly Angola). Data collection is lagging this reality, but the 2011 and 2012 data, when out, should tell this story more clearly.

Still, amid the discussion about a global race for international migrants, it is worth remembering that any full-fledged competition likely will be reserved for a very small number of the most highly skilled possessors of prized knowledge — in IT, engineering, and science, for example — and not for the vast majority of would-be migrants. That said, some governments (Canada, Singapore, United Kingdom, Australia, and Europe) have been more mindful in their policymaking in recent years, enabling them to go after the talent, at all skill levels, that complements their labor market needs. And there are demographic, educational, and economic realignments taking place that eventually may make the United States and other key migrant-receiving nations no longer the most prized destinations for countless would-be migrants around the globe.

This post was originally published by New America Media.

 

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57 comments

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6:06AM PDT on Apr 7, 2013

What a joke. Its not true, and just being said to calm everyone down so they can slide in another amnesty while continuing to do nothing to protect our borders.

4:25AM PST on Feb 24, 2012

Note: I quit using Care2 about one year ago because of their ignorant, gushing-heart, pro-illegal immigration policies. Looks like they can't tell the difference between fireworks and bombs either.

The title of the Care2 article "Why Is Illegal Immigration Dropping in the US?" is a false question. Recent data indicates that President Obama and his dismantling of immigration enforcement has reversed the decline in the illegal alien population.

Per Center for Immigration Studies:
"Based on preliminary data used by the Department of Homeland Security, the Center for Immigration Studies estimates that 10.9 million illegal aliens were in the United States on Jan. 1, 2011. That number -- up from 10.8 million -- reverses a decline of roughly 1 million registered during the last two years of the Bush administration."

See blog at: http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/blog/report-illegal-immigrant-population-rise-under-barack-obama


David Caulkett, VP, flimen.org

6:06PM PST on Feb 19, 2012

If illegal immigration is dropping, That is a good thing. But I doubt it is true. We need to stop it completely. Getting rid of the illegals already here is still a big, big problem. Make them go through the system instead of trying to beat it. Speed up deportations starting with the criminals. All illegals do not come from South America.

9:26AM PST on Feb 19, 2012

We have become spoiled and lazy. Why is that the so-called low jobs are only taken by immigrants? I have worked all my life and have done just about every job you could think of. Working hard is no reason to be ashamed. I oppose illegal immigrants because it's way of "jumping the line" and this should not be allowed. Apply legally and do the paperwork. And as for those that don't want to do manual labour? Tough - get a life, get a job and stop whining

11:00PM PST on Jan 26, 2012

It doesn't seem to be dropping here!!

11:11PM PST on Jan 24, 2012

Eliminating the immigrant problem, is start of the Republican's master plan.
Destroy the unions and the wages that come with them. Get rid of the immigrants, due to lack of work. Next, American citizens have no jobs, so they have to take over the jobs that the immigrants had, for little money.

Too many people had risen above the level that the elite found acceptable. They need someone to do their dirty work.
Knock down the middle class and they will be forced to do the work of the lower class. Knock down the lower class, so they will be willing to work for barely, nothing.
What they didn't expect, was that we would rebel, and rebel we did.

Any conservative, who is _not_ wealthy, is living in a dream world, if they think the GOP cares what happens to them. They can dream all they want, if they think they will be permitted to join the club.

1:53PM PST on Jan 24, 2012

The illegals see that it's not all that great compared to what they have in their own countries and I agree with Deborah L, we are slowly becoming a theocracy, if the Republicans and tea party pundits have anything to say about it. They preach about the constitution but go against it by not separating church and state.

9:35AM PST on Jan 23, 2012

Why would anyone want to move to an empire in decline? China and India are the places to be.

3:19AM PST on Jan 21, 2012

Maybe because most that want to be here, are here right now?

3:16AM PST on Jan 21, 2012

Leslea H: that and we are quickly becoming a theocracy.

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