Wednesday October 21, 2009, 2:01 pm
1.4-4.3°C Temperature Rise by 2100 Assured
Well, the UNEP has just released an update on the state of climate science which says that no matter what we do at this point we've committed the planet to 1.4°C warming above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

Not great, and there will be some unpleasant climate changes, but not the worst-case scenario. However, if we don't cut emissions quickly (25-40% from 1990 levels by 2020, with emissions peaking by 2015-2020) we will commit the planet to 4.3°C warming by 2100. And that's seriously bad news.

Wednesday October 21, 2009, 2:01 pm
Kiss Half of Animals, All of Coral Reefs, Much of Arctic Sea Ice Goodbye
That effectively signs the extinction warrant for about half of all animal and plant life on the planet, means coral reefs are gone due to ocean acidification, means ice-free summers in the Arctic, sets both Greenland and Antarctica on the melting path to multi-meter sea level rise, and means the glaciers in the Himalayas are doomed.

Widespread Thirst, Hunger...
In human terms, that means half of all humans will face water shortages; it means widespread starvation in South and East Asia as water availability plummets and crop yields drop; it means much the same thing in Africa; the Mekong Delta is 20% flooded and Ho Chi Minh City is 10-20% underwater; the Nile Delta (source of much of Egypt's food) is inundated with salt water; same thing for most of Bangladesh.

It's Gonna Get Really Hot in Parts of US
In the United States it means localized temperature increases (think the Great Plains) of up to 7°C; it means severe water problems in the Sierra Nevada mountains which supply meltwater to California agriculture; crop yields plummet in the midwest; insect borne diseases like dengue fever, historically confined to the tropics, spread to 28 states; coastal cities like Miami, New York, New Orleans, and others have to contend with sea level rise of more than a meter.

Wednesday October 21, 2009, 2:02 pm
Half a Million Dead by 2030
If you want some numbers: By 2030, 500,000 people could die due to climate change -- 99% of them in the developing world, which it should be pointed out have historically done very little to cause the problem. Already an estimated 300,000 people are seriously affected by climate change.

In economic terms by 2030 the global economy could take a $340 billion hit.


Planet Green Video: The 11th Hour

Wednesday October 21, 2009, 5:32 pm
Are you guys in some kind of contest...who can make up the scariest story?...the winner to spend a night with Al Gore?

Another scientific paper that shows the warming we had from 1977-1998 didn't get as warm the Medieval Warm Period.
Excerpt:

What was done
Millet et al. (1) “present a new chironomid-based temperature record from Lake Anterne (northern French Alps) covering the past two millennia,” (2) “compare this reconstruction with other late-Holocene temperature records from Central Europe,” and (3) “address the question of whether previously described centennial-scale climate events such as the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ [MWP] or the ‘Little Ice Age’ [LIA] can be detected in this new summer temperature record,” noting that “at a hemispheric or global scale the existence of the LIA and MWP have been questioned.”

What was learned
What was learned
The six scientists report that “evidence was found of a cold phase at Lake Anterne between AD 400 and 680, a warm episode between AD 680 and 1350, and another cold phase between AD 1350 and 1900,” and they say that these events were “correlated to the so-called ‘Dark Age Cold Period’ (DACP), the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ and the ‘Little Ice Age’.” In addition, they say that “many other climate reconstructions across western Europe confirm the existence of several significant climatic changes during the last 1800 years in Central Europe and more specifically the DACP, the MWP and the LIA.”

Last of all, they report that the reconstructed temperatures of the 20th century failed to show a return to MWP levels of warmth, which failure they attributed to a breakdown of the chironomid-temperature relationship over the final century of their 1800-year history.

What it means
Ever more evidence continues to indicate that the Medieval Warm Period was a real and global phenomenon (see our Medieval Warm Period Project). It also continues to indicate that the MWP was likely warmer than the Current Warm Period (CWP) has been to date. Such could also be said about the new evidence provided by the study of Millet et al., although we tend to agree that there was indeed a breakdown of their chironomid-temperature relationship when it mattered most and disallowed a valid (apples-to-apples) comparison to be made between the warmth of the MWP and the CWP. However, the fact that Millet et al.’s reconstructed summer temperature dropped by about 1.3°C during the MWP to LIA transition would indeed suggest that the MWP was warmer than the CWP has yet been, since post-LIA warming is generally considered to have been somewhat less than 1.3°C … even when comparing apples to oranges!"

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/20/the-midge-warm-period/