More Polls Show More Confusion In Presidential Election

Are President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney tied in the polls?† Or is Romney leading?† Or maybe Obama?† It literally depends on who you ask and what day it is, as the newest batch of polling shows.

The recent Reuters/Ipsos polling released yesterday has† Obama only 4 points ahead of Romney, just squeaking past the 3 percent margin of error.† Gallup has Romney up by two, at 47 to 45, just withing in the margin of error. But CNN/ORC has Obama up 9 points over Romney at 52 to 43.

With all the polls being conducted at roughly the same time, how do we get such a huge range of numbers?† Two factors are likely at play — one, the coalescing of the GOP behind Romney, now that they’ve essentially narrowed down to one viable Republican candidate, and two, the number of women sampled in the polls.† Although most of the polls didn’t indicate the voter preference by gender, CNN’s did, and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of Obama, even after the “woman working” controversy of last week.

Still, everything indicates a right race that is getting tighter, and as we’ve learned in the past, the popular vote matters less than the electoral college, so it is very much anyone’s race.† As Josh Marshall states, “[I]tís a wake up call for anyone who thinks this isnít going to be a hard fought campaign.


Photo from Matt Ortega via flickr creative commons


Michael M.
Michael T5 years ago

Seth You nailed that one. Congratulations.

seth c.
seth c.5 years ago

@ Billie C. - Your comment shows a lack of knowledge and understanding of how the Executive branch ( i.e. Presidential branch ) of government works. Many people who "work for the president" also worked for Pres. Bush's administration). But instead of talking about stupid stuff like this, why don't you and Steve R. take an honest look at the economic policies of the GOP. Tax breaks for the rich, which means the middle class will have to pay for it through cuts in programs they rely on. Any time you hear "tax cut" don't let it fool you, it has to be paid for some way or another and the poor and middle class end up paying. The Ryan - Romney budget would give massive tax cuts to the rich and add $5 trillion to the deficit. It would cut funding to many programs the poor and middle class depend on; basically take from the poor/middle class to fund tax breaks for the rich. And they want to accuse Obama of "redistribution of wealth".
What I'm trying to say is this ; If you are going to vote for whats best for your pocket book/bank account, then you would vote Obama. If you are going to vote Republican simply because you vote for a party instead of the candidate, or because Obama's half black, then your voting against whats best for you and your family. The GOP doesn't hide it, go look for yourself at the GOP legislation and proposed legislation. You will find it doesn't benefit you.

Billie C.
Billie C5 years ago

obama is held in such great respect by the people that work for him that they have massive parties on the taxpayer dollars (gsa). they go scouting for his "protection" and have massive parties with hookers that they don't bother to pay (secret service and military). if the people that are under him have no respect for him why should the american people? a leader earns the respect of his people and they would never do anything to embarrass him. the people that report to obama could care less about what they do to him.
if he can't lead his employees he has no business leading our country.

Patrick F.
Patrick f5 years ago

Steve R. "Yup - love them polls!" Yeah, I heard that about you, except they were called dildos...

Kaitlin Carney
Kaitlin Carney5 years ago

I used to conduct opinion polls such as these for a tele-surveying company. What I learned in my 3.5 years there is to never ever trust the results. A respondent's answers are so influenced by the surveyors style of giving polls that it more reflects how the pollers feel about the questions or the survey itself.

Steve R.
Steve R5 years ago

Yup - love them polls!

You'd think that if Obama had delivered all the good things you try to get us to believe he has, he'd be leading by a mile?

I guess the "confusion" exists among Independents and Democrats with brains, as to whether they DARE give Obama another four years.

I sure won't!

Ron B.
Ron B5 years ago

Political races traditionally tend to tighten up as election day draws near. But if Obama had kept his promises and been a true progressive in office, I suspect he would have won handily this time around by almost as much as he did in 2008. But it's not to be.

Brendan J.
Brendan J.5 years ago

If Obama is your idea of a "force for good", you must have not paid any attention to what has been going on with the rest of the Sheeple. For your watching pleasure, or displeasure, take the time to check out these links. Then take the time to research for yourself these same topics..
All factual ! There are so many videos documenting his BS.

Ellyn L.
Ellen L5 years ago

I have never seen an election with 2 such polar opposites. Obama = a force for good. Romney = maintain the status quo for white men and to hell with the others.

Wesley Struebing
Wesley Struebing5 years ago

scarlett g. Possibly, but what would those biased, falls and old data be? I'm curious.