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In the Iran Talks, Does a Missed Deadline Matter?


World  (tags: Iranian nuclear program, Iran talks, politics, obama administration, levarage, deadlines, Arab nations, geopolitics, alliances, north Africa, USA, Stratfor analysis )

Angelika
- 1509 days ago - stratfor.com
Ironically, the US congressmen vehemently threatening more sanctions are working in Iran's favor in this stage of the negotiating process. The more effort the US team has to put into keeping Iran at the table, the more leverage Iran has in the talks.



   

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Comments

Animae C (508)
Thursday April 2, 2015, 6:29 am
Noted
T.Y. Angie
 

Angelika R (143)
Thursday April 2, 2015, 6:37 am
Thx AniMae, the post didn't show up for me so couldn't add any comment yet..

Here's also an interesting video with a discussion by insiders/experts
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rs5Tru1owss&mc_cid=a76ffefcc2&mc_eid=f44e6a8e2f
(sorry C2 apparently disabled us to insert live links :-(( )
 

Angelika R (143)
Thursday April 2, 2015, 6:40 am
The Obama administration has slipped past self-imposed deadlines and minced words over red lines before. Although certainly an embarrassment for the White House, another missed deadline in the seemingly never-ending Iran nuclear negotiations — which stretched beyond the latest deadline of March 31 — may not matter much in the end.

From Iran's point of view, it was a deadline to be exploited, not one to fret over. Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, had expressed misgivings about a framework agreement, insisting that the deal is not done until all core issues are resolved in a final deal. The White House imposed the March deadline to prove to Congress that enough progress was being made to hold off on sanctions. Still, a dodged deadline and a diluted progress report are unlikely to calm dissenters in Congress. Even if a bill calling for additional sanctions in the event of a violation of an agreement makes its way through Congress, it will be vetoed in the Oval Office. Congress overturning that veto is a less likely prospect.

Ironically, the U.S. congressmen vehemently threatening more sanctions are working in Iran's favor in this stage of the negotiating process. The more effort the U.S. negotiating team has to put into keeping Iran at the table, the more leverage Iran has in the talks. So, as the plethora of leaks on Monday all pointed toward the drafting of an agreement, Tehran strategically dropped a bombshell at the last minute. It said that while it would agree to reduce the number of operational centrifuges to 6,000 — going against the supreme leader's earlier demand for at least 10,000 centrifuges to remain in operation — it would pull back on an earlier concession to ship its low-enriched nuclear fuel to Russia.

This is a classic negotiating tactic: One party throws up a flare, panic ensues and once all sides return to the table, any further concessions from the instigator appear that much more generous. The next three months will be filled with such twists as the window for negotiations narrows.

In Iran's neighborhood, states like Saudi Arabia do not have the luxury of betting against the United States and Iran and have to prepare for the worst. The developing U.S.-Iranian relationship is what has driven Saudi Arabia into action in leading its Sunni allies against Iran across multiple fronts, with Yemen now in the spotlight.

Israel may also be upset at the United States for negotiating what it considers a bad deal with Iran, but it cannot deny that the upsurge in Sunni determination to contain Iran is a good thing. For example, Sudan's recruitment into the Saudi-led alliance had been months in the making, but the end result is that Iran has lost a critical conduit to supply arms to militant groups like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad through supply routes that run from Port Sudan up through the Sinai Peninsula to the Gaza Strip. So long as Hamas struggles to replenish its weapons, including long-range rocket components, Israel has less to worry about.

Egypt is another beneficiary of the Saudi-led "Decisive Storm" operation. The White House never abandoned its close relationship with Cairo, but it became entangled politically by branding the deposal of former Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi a coup and demanding steps toward democracy before resuming aid. While the United States was trying to maintain its political correctness, Russia took the opportunity to court Egypt with military and energy deals, trying to broadcast the message that Washington's role had been filled in the Middle East.

Cairo simply used the attention from Moscow to bargain with Washington, waiting for the politics to become conducive enough to normalize relations with the United States with the understanding that a relationship with Washington would matter much more than one with Moscow. Egypt has yet to reschedule its elections, yet its participation in the Yemen operation gave the White House the justification it needed to show that Cairo is still a key Arab ally worthy of a dozen F-16 fighter jets that are now being delivered.

Much will be made of a missed deadline in Lausanne. Doubts will be cast over a potential agreement. But it is important to keep some perspective. This deadline over an interim agreement did not mean much to Iran in the first place. Progress, however uneven, is being made in the nuclear negotiations, and a U.S.-Iranian understanding is already having reverberations across the region.

Please read at site for links in articles.
 

Angelika R (143)
Thursday April 2, 2015, 6:50 am
Perhaps we should also impose a deadline on negotiations with C2 until everything on this site works properly..? this play is getting really annoying. :-//
 

David C (75)
Thursday April 2, 2015, 8:28 am
I think there are no deadlines when it comes to a peaceful, safer future
 

David C (75)
Thursday April 2, 2015, 8:28 am
the probable only true deadline is the next US Presidential election, imagine what happens if a republican becomes our President
 

Angelika R (143)
Thursday April 2, 2015, 8:34 am
Dave, I'd rather NOT imagine that, it's bad enough as it is with that RepubLikud party right now!
 

Angelika R (143)
Thursday April 2, 2015, 8:36 am
It will be the American people's duty to see to it that this won't happen!
 

Angelika R (143)
Thursday April 2, 2015, 11:02 am
THE LATEST: Iran Nuclear Deal: Tentative Agreement Reached
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/iran-nuclear-deal-announcement-expected/story?id=29952510
 

Angelika R (143)
Thursday April 2, 2015, 11:23 am
https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/president-obama-delivers-statement-iran
Happeniing NOW (for those who can watch) looks to me like selling a great success!
 

Angelika R (143)
Thursday April 2, 2015, 11:43 am
Applause to the president, a great speech! - compelling "sale" of the outcome so far, the present status I'd say, slight "warning" to Congress included. ;) Be prepared for the brouhaha and bitching to start subsequently ;-) - from the Republikud ...
 

Darren Woolsey (218)
Friday April 3, 2015, 5:38 am
A deadline isn't a deadline, if actions threatened aren't executed.
Thanks Angelika.
 

Arild Warud (174)
Saturday April 4, 2015, 3:20 am
Deadlines doesn't mean much,I'm convinced that Iran will go nuclear,if it will be in 10 or 15 years doesn't matter much.
 

Angelika R (143)
Saturday April 4, 2015, 7:09 am
Most certainly it WILL NOT Arild! The rift between the US and Israel would NEVER get bad and big enough to let that happen! No way Iranians could do it secretly ..like Israel!
 

Birgit W (160)
Saturday April 4, 2015, 2:00 pm
Thanks for sharing Angelika.
 

Lois Jordan (63)
Saturday April 4, 2015, 2:38 pm
Noted. Thanks for posting, Angelika.
First, I was a bit surprised to see that this comes from Stratfor. Interesting------wasn't that the website/file that a hacker was being federally charged with releasing information from this site a couple years ago? I was again surprised that the article is not pushing for war; but seems open-minded and hopeful about a peaceful negotiation. Or, maybe I missed something....Glad to see it anyway.
 

Angelika R (143)
Saturday April 4, 2015, 2:51 pm
No Lois, you missed nothing. I don't recall anything what you mention there but, yes, George Friedman who founded and runs Stratfor is very impartial just providing an objective outlook on global geopolitics.
They are not politically affiliated but basically work for the benefit of the economy, the business cummunity, thus can afford to be impartial, must be in fact.
 

Paul Christensen (1)
Saturday April 4, 2015, 3:08 pm
No a deadline comes second to a deal that all can live with there is nodoubt in my mind about that. The wild card here is who wins the next election in the US. Thinking of that,the outcome will not be good should the Republicans win and put"boots on the ground"in the reigion
 

Angelika R (143)
Saturday April 4, 2015, 4:12 pm
You don't make $$ with boots on the grounds, rather the opposite. What the RepubLikud hawk Congress wants and would make $$ off is field test of most sophisticated tactical missiles.
Up to you guys not to get the wrong person into the WH to "bomb, bomb Iran"!
 

Janet B (0)
Saturday April 4, 2015, 4:13 pm
Thanks
 

Aurea Aurea Walker (226)
Saturday April 4, 2015, 10:37 pm
The gargantuan mess in the Middle East must be squarely placed on senior idiot bush only made worse by little "insecure" Georgie Porgie bushie! I respect what president Obama is attempting to do. Screw the deadline, keep talking, far better to try and keep this issue in talks than any negative rifts in the discussion. If we get a war mongering reuglican in office come 2016 America and American democracy will be irreparably damaged!
 

Tahvo Holappa (0)
Tuesday April 7, 2015, 4:33 am
nice one
 
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