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Election Projection - 10/14/2012

US Politics & Gov't  (tags: Editorial, Elections, Polls )

- 2444 days ago -
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TomCat S (125)
Sunday October 14, 2012, 10:52 am
Last week, I warned that my projections did not take public reactions to either nthe first Presidential debate or the improved unemployment rate into account. My latest projections of the Presidential Race and Senate Races now do and they paint a picture far less positive than last week’s. If a candidate is 5% or more ahead in the average polls, I call that state for that candidate. Especially because the most recent polls do not reflect public reactions to the Vice Presidential debate, these numbers are also subject to change.

JL A (281)
Sunday October 14, 2012, 11:23 am
The disclosure of methodology and refusing to call differences within the margin of error are totally appreciated TomCat--too many put out numbers without this information critical to assessing methodological biases, if any.

. (0)
Sunday October 14, 2012, 12:12 pm
Some day, the electoral college will have to be dismantled, and the people will actually be able to vote for a president. According to this, Romney has the vote of the people; Obama has a slight lead over the electorate.
Like in so many other elections(Kennedy vs. Nixon), the man chosen by the people did not win the election - the electorate determined it. In Kennedy's case, Joe Kennedy bought Illinois for his son.

David C (75)
Sunday October 14, 2012, 12:22 pm
wish that voters looked at issues rather than one's debating style in one my opinion, too many seem to think Mittens won and deserves their vote because he was more aggressive and louder.......even if they are less in agreement with his opinions, he flip flops, or just outright lies.....

Past Member (0)
Sunday October 14, 2012, 1:58 pm
Thanks Tom. Can't say it better than the posters above me.

Yvonne White (229)
Sunday October 14, 2012, 4:55 pm
We need Democrats & Progressive Independents in office to REALLY do the work that MUST be done to get out of this Recession!
"It still appears likely that Obama will win the Presidency, and Democrats will hold the Senate, but the races are closer than the done deal they appeared to be a week ago.
Once again, these numbers are subject to change at a moments notice, so this is no reason to relax our efforts to send the Republican party the way of the Whigs."


John B (185)
Sunday October 14, 2012, 5:11 pm
Thanks Tom for the projection. With just 24 days until the election anything can happen and in the end it's the vote that will tell the tale. Read and noted.

Edith B (146)
Sunday October 14, 2012, 9:45 pm
I hope your projections are right. We need more Democrats in the House and Senate to get this country back on the right track. Ooops, the correct track!

Lynn Squance (235)
Sunday October 14, 2012, 10:40 pm
On the radio news this afternoon, I heard a lot of rukus and the newscaster said it was the Democratic team getting things done and getting hyped (next debate prep) as they chowed down on pizza. While the question at the beginning of the short piece was " Which Obama will we see?" the eventual response was an aggressive, 'take no prisoners' Obama. I hope so! I hope that Mr Obama took notes from Joe Biden!

Up, then down, then up again. It is a rollercoaster! I hate rollercoasters because, hey, I toss my cookies in the car with motion sickness! But the only poll that really counts is on 06/11/2012! It is so important that everyone weigh their options because once the vote is in, there is no going back.

I noticed, like everyone else I'm sure, that the Republican/Teabaggers are trying to take political advantage of the Benghazi incident. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina on Face the Nation I believe, accused Mr Obama of a coverup. Chris Stevens' father has lambasted the Romney campaign for using his son and his death for political purposes. Of course that kind of chicanery is their forté and a request from the family will never stop the Republican/Teabaggers because they will do ANYTHING, illegal, immoral, doesn't matter, just to win the election. And this is evidence of leadership abilities? I think it is evidence of depravity!

I came across an article in Truthout called "Advocate: New Constitutional Amendment Needed to protect the Right to Vote" and posted it to Care2 at . (Also ). It is an interesting article and well worth the read.

Get out the vote!!!!!

Vote Democratic 2012!!!!! Vote Obama/Biden 2012!!!!!


P A (117)
Monday October 15, 2012, 3:54 am
Fascinating analysis - thanks TC - vote Democrat!

Carol H (229)
Monday October 15, 2012, 5:45 am
Obama-Biden 2012!!

End CrueltyDeb Williams-Shepard (154)
Monday October 15, 2012, 10:02 am
Wish that my state [West Virginia] was in blue for a Romney win. Obama is nothing but a huge liar! Latest on the Syria attack.

TomCat S (125)
Monday October 15, 2012, 10:14 am
Thanks to all; but one.

I agree with Allan that the electoral college should be replaced with a national popular vote, but his contention that Romney is ahead nationally runs counter to most polls.

Earth to Debbie, your state is RED for a Romney win. Your are just as accurate about Obama.
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