There is a new initiative, called the National Popular Vote, to elect the US President and Vice-President by popular vote. What is novel about this initiative is that it can be done without changing the US Constitution and without eliminating the Electoral College!
Per the US Constitution, individual states decide how to choose that state's Electoral College Electors. Currently, all states choose the electors principally based on a popular vote, usually on a plurality-winner-takes-all basis.
Under the National Popular Vote plan, a group of individual states representing a majority of EC votes would enter into an agreement with each other that would commit each state to choose its electors based on the results of the national popular vote on a plurality-winner-takes-all basis.
Interesting. It's a shame they don't promote IRV as well. It has been ruled as not violating the constitution (ie one man one vote etc).
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I'm surprised the idea of states grouping their vote hasn't come up before. I think that was the rational behind all EC votes going to one candidate - it effectively increases the voting power of individuals within the state. If states with a majority could do the same they could 'take over' the presidential election. Even if they only had say 25% of the vote, they could still control the outcome if they are swing states or a cross section, because whoever wins that block of votes then only needs one third of the EC votes from other states to win, which is likely to happen.
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This is a novel approach, but I'm not sure it will be very practical.
The agreement between states won't be activated until enough states with a majority of EC votes join the agreement.
For example, say only states that almost always vote Democratic and represent 25% of the EC vote joined and actiwated the agreement. Then their state democratic popular vote would be changed to Republican if the national popular vote went Republican, but there would be no change in the EC vote if the national popular vote went Democratic.
They can't also introduce IRV with this because the non-participating states wouldn't be conducting statewide IRV popular voting. If a single state, either participating or non-participating, adopted IRV in its popular vote, that might gum up the workings of the agreement. It could be difficult to establish that state's contribution to a national FPTP vote total.
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You always find out the national first preference results with IRV. However, if you used those IRV results as described you would get a stronger spoiler effect because more people would vote for minor parties.
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If you used first preference results from IRV to feed into the national vote count, and voters in that state would vote strategically, and ignore the state's IRV arrangement, because they would know what really counts is how things are counted at the national level.
That is assuming there is a majority of EC votes committed to following the national vote.
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A cross section of a less than majority would be more balanced. But the first state to sign up doesn't know whether there will be a cross section. Also, there would be a lot of opportunity as the election draws near to second-guess the composition of the states that have joined in and to withdraw from the agreement if the state doesn't like the composition of the cross-section.
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The current winner-take-all approach for appointing Presidential Electors is mostly a way to suppress third parties. It is also a way to encourage getting a majority winner in the EC and avoiding any runoffs in the House. That becomes a real mess, partly because each state delegation of Representatives only gets one vote and has to vote as a block. As far as I know, there are no rules about how the vote of that delegation is determined (for example, what happens with a State delegation of two Representatives that happen to be from different parties).
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IRV if you have it might work. But that really requires a centralized vote counting / vote certifying function. It wouldn't be impossible for a group of states to set up and administer, but it would add to the administrative overhead of the plan.
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Popular vote is the best way to go. It's a win-win situation. Electoral college is so out dated and too much election fraud is causing us to lose many of our civil rights.
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The integrity of our voting and vote tallying systems are an important issues that exist regardless of whether we are using FPTP or IRV, whether we are using only the popular vote or the Electoral College.
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Doing away with the Electoral College requires constitutional change. This obstacle cannot be overcome no matter what system one proposes.
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The Constitution doesn't prevent it, it's just not gonna happen, at least not in our current political climate with one party.
Our nation is effectively one party because there is a 98% incumbency rate in Congress. This means that out of 535 seats, only 10 are competative every 2 years. Most of those are probably in Iowa, and the rest are probably due to death or retirement.
So the other 525 incumbents never have to worry about facing a hard campaign. Look at Conn. with Liberman. Most Democrats hate him because he is pretty much a Republican, yet it is doubtful that they will ever get rid of him. Its like that old saying says "Better to go with the devil you know than the one you don't". So they'd rather have a Democrat in there who might one day vote Democrat rather than a full Republican. Apparently they don't want to risk getting a new Democrat candidate to replace Liberman in the primaries either.
But back to the topic of national popular vote, there was a program yesterday on the Diane Rheem (sp?) show on NPR. Each state can decide for itself how its electoral votes are apportioned. I liked the Colorado initiative attempting to split them based on the percentage of votes. For example, if a Democrat got 49% and a Republican got 51%, the Republican would get 5/9 electoral votes from Colorado, and the Democrat the remaining 4. But it was shot down due to partisan politics when the Republicans, for some reason, thought it would hurt their party's chances at the White House. I don't know why they thought that, its not like Bush had a real challenger. But oh well.
I wonder, if instead of a national popular vote (or in addition to it) if we could also have a "None of the Above" option on our ballots. I wonder if between that choice and the incumbent, what people would choose more often. My hypothesis is they would choose "None of the Above", forcing the parties to pick new candidates. I suppose we could already do that if we had enough people who put "None of the Above" on our ballots as a "write-in" candidate. Of course, I think the current rules require that such a ballot be invalidated.
Maybe we could come up with something creative like "Vote John/Jane Doe for Congress/President - Because the only real choice is None of the Above". Just an idea.
SACRAMENTO, Calif. - The California Legislature passed a bill that would give California's 55 electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, rather than the candidate who captured the state — but for now, the measure stands a slim chance of becoming reality.
That's because it could go into effect only if states with a combined total of 270 electoral votes — the number now required to win the presidency — agree to the same process.
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Is this a limitation imposed by the Californian legislators? You don't really need half the EC votes. All you need is a bit of diversity. Say, one dem state (California) and one rep state (Texas), and maybe a few others in case the scene shifts somehow. It would be almost impossible for a party to win without winning the NPV and without the support of a few core states that usually vote in favour of it.
Also, what if it was close enough to need a recount. How would that work?
The threshhold of 270 votes is a general provision of the agreement, not something specific to California's version. While FD makes a good point about the agreement being effective in most cases with fewer states, the promoters of the agreement apparently decided it would be easier to find supporters if it operated with more certainty. If states representing less than a majority of the EC could activate the agreement and those states tended to vote more for one party, there would tend to be a bias against that party in the results, and states that tended to vote for the other party would have a disencentive then for joining the agreement.
The advantage of the agreement is that it is easier to adopt and activate than a constitutional amendment. If the eleven largest states adopted the agreement, it would be activated. But a constitutional amendment can be defeated by just 13 states. For example, the 13 smallest states represented less than 5 percent of the popular vote in the last presidential election.
But a disadvantage is that it is more difficult to enforce, so special circumstances are more likely to make it fail. An extended recount or even just a non-participating state refusing to publish an official popular vote tally could create havoc.
Overall, I see the NPV campaign as being more of an publicize the issue and to demonstrate support for switching to a popular vote. The vote in the California legislature was mostly along party lines -- Dems for, Repub against. The immediate stumbling block in California appears to be getting the Republican governor's signature for the measure.
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I'm not sure why the Republicans were against it. I don't see that a national popular vote for president would give an obvious political advantage to either major party. The news articles I saw quoted some of the lawmakers being against it because it was a way of bypassing the constitution. There is some truth to that, but the NPV agreement is also working within the framework of the constitution. One could argue that the Republicans are against it for truly conservative reasons -- it is change and innovative change at that.
I'm sure that some Republicans are against any form of national popular vote for US President because they see it as being anti-federalist to the extent that it diminishes the role and influence of states.
The near party-line vote on the measure probably also reflects that state elections were just a few months away.
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It appears as if our flawed electoral system(s) has/have already begun to show its inherent errors and discrepancies with Clinton and Obama primary vote results in Nevada. Here's an excerpt from an article on the "win-win"??:
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Delegate Dispute
Obama, 46, didn't give a concession speech. His campaign claimed a victory in the state, saying that while Obama received fewer total votes, he won one more delegate than Clinton because of the way delegates are apportioned in rural areas.
``Barack Obama did well throughout the state,'' Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said in a conference call with reporters. Plouffe said Obama received 13 delegates for the party's national convention and Clinton got 12.
Clinton's campaign disputed that, citing a delegate selection process that won't be completed until April.
``Well, nobody really knows,'' Clinton told reporters in Las Vegas, when asked about the delegate count. ``This is about delegates but it's also about what people are voting for and who they think the best president will be.''
The Democratic candidate needs 2,025 delegates to win the nomination. Clinton, who placed third in the Iowa caucuses and won the New Hampshire primary, has 210 delegates so far, according to a tally by CNN that includes so-called super delegates, party officials and office holders who are not bound by state voting results. Obama has 123 and Edwards has 52."