Are President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney tied in the polls?† Or is Romney leading?† Or maybe Obama?† It literally depends on who you ask and what day it is, as the newest batch of polling shows.
The recent Reuters/Ipsos polling released yesterday has† Obama only 4 points ahead of Romney, just squeaking past the 3 percent margin of error.† Gallup has Romney up by two, at 47 to 45, just withing in the margin of error. But CNN/ORC has Obama up 9 points over Romney at 52 to 43.
With all the polls being conducted at roughly the same time, how do we get such a huge range of numbers?† Two factors are likely at play — one, the coalescing of the GOP behind Romney, now that they’ve essentially narrowed down to one viable Republican candidate, and two, the number of women sampled in the polls.† Although most of the polls didn’t indicate the voter preference by gender, CNN’s did, and the results were overwhelmingly in favor of Obama, even after the “woman working” controversy of last week.
Still, everything indicates a right race that is getting tighter, and as we’ve learned in the past, the popular vote matters less than the electoral college, so it is very much anyone’s race.† As Josh Marshall states, “[I]tís a wake up call for anyone who thinks this isnít going to be a hard fought campaign.
Photo from Matt Ortega via flickr creative commons