Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has finally had a big win with his strong showing in Illinois. A big win usually means lots of momentum heading into the next state. There’s only one problem. The next state is Louisiana, and he’s going to lose. Big time.
Recent polling has former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum sitting with a 13 point lead.
NOLA.com reports, “The findings of the Magellan survey were all good news for Santorum, whose campaign depends on a strong showing in Louisiana adding to the candidate’s success in the South. According to the survey, Santorum leads among men and women, among all age groups and in every congressional district. He is also viewed far more favorably than Romney. While Santorum registers 79 percent favorable to 20 percent unfavorable, Romney rates 49 percent favorable to 41 percent unfavorable.”
And despite the clear Romney victory, that lead isn’t expected to change too much. According to Nate Silver at 538, “[I]t is possible that [Romney] could get some momentum heading into Louisiana. But momentum has generally been fleeting in the G.O.P. race, and polls in states with large numbers of evangelicals have tended to underestimate Mr. Santorum’s strength.”
Even worse for Romney, Santorum’s team seems more energized that before. “We’re not even at halftime yet. I think we have to have two more states to get to the half-way point roughly,” said [John Brabender, Santorum's senior strategist]. “And so, you know, we’ll get through tonight.”
The Louisiana primary is just three days away. Can Romney perform a miracle?
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