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Morning Mix: Will Louisiana Kill The Mitt-mentum?

Morning Mix: Will Louisiana Kill The Mitt-mentum?

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has finally had a big win with his strong showing in Illinois.  A big win usually means lots of momentum heading into the next state.  There’s only one problem.  The next state is Louisiana, and he’s going to lose.  Big time.

Recent polling has former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum sitting with a 13 point lead.

NOLA.com reports, “The findings of the Magellan survey were all good news for Santorum, whose campaign depends on a strong showing in Louisiana adding to the candidate’s success in the South. According to the survey, Santorum leads among men and women, among all age groups and in every congressional district. He is also viewed far more favorably than Romney. While Santorum registers 79 percent favorable to 20 percent unfavorable, Romney rates 49 percent favorable to 41 percent unfavorable.”

And despite the clear Romney victory, that lead isn’t expected to change too much. According to Nate Silver at 538, “[I]t is possible that [Romney] could get some momentum heading into Louisiana. But momentum has generally been fleeting in the G.O.P. race, and polls in states with large numbers of evangelicals have tended to underestimate Mr. Santorum’s strength.”

Even worse for Romney, Santorum’s team seems more energized that before. “We’re not even at halftime yet. I think we have to have two more states to get to the half-way point roughly,” said [John Brabender, Santorum's senior strategist]. “And so, you know, we’ll get through tonight.”

The Louisiana primary is just three days away.  Can Romney perform a miracle?

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10 comments

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9:21AM PDT on Mar 25, 2012

Do they really believe in Louisiana that the republicans will do anything to help them clean up their oil mess, or help all the wild-life that is suffering and dying, and the loss of careers that have occured? Give me a break. If they are drinking something to give them a positive attitude despite all this destruction, I want to know what it is!

12:11PM PDT on Mar 22, 2012

Maybe they'll show him their appreciation for people who put corporate profits ahead of everything else and feed him some toxic crawdads from an oil-polluted estuary. Or better yet, give him a voodoo truth potion and see what comes out his mouth.

11:58AM PDT on Mar 22, 2012

noted

7:53AM PDT on Mar 22, 2012

I'm really hoping that Sarah Palin will feel the need for a little more ego-stroking attention, & jump in.

It's beginning to get a little old watching Comedy Central beating up on the same suspects, night after night.

Come on Sarah, your teabaggers need you! Who knows, you might be able to parlay it into another short lived TV show.

7:37AM PDT on Mar 22, 2012

Interesting note from the other John B. However, I believe Jeffrey is probably correct, although the convention could be very interesting this year. Romney is the only one running that really has any shot in the fall election. After he finishes all his contortions from this primary season, we'll see if he's able to speak what he really believes, and if it's not to late to undue the damage he has done to himself.

7:09AM PDT on Mar 22, 2012

YOU WISH!

12:01PM PDT on Mar 21, 2012

No, Robin. I'm sorry to disappoint you, but your guy is going to lose to Romney.

The primary is over, whether you want to face it or not. Look at Real Clear Politics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_delegate_count.html

Romney is almost even with the combined popular votes of Santorum and Gingrich combined, and has 50% more votes than his closest rival, Santorum.

He has more delegates than all the other competitors combined - and that in race with proportional allocation of delegates.

The Southern races are all but over, and even there Romney did better than expected.

They are no game changers on the horizon.

It's over.

9:15AM PDT on Mar 21, 2012

I'm finding it harder to take this race seriously when everything suggests it was predetermined by the PAC money...............

8:05AM PDT on Mar 21, 2012

While a life long Dem. I hope Santorum wins just so it can be a out and out fight at the Rep. convention. That should be fun to watch and see who they finally pick to lose to Obama in November.

6:05AM PDT on Mar 21, 2012

thanks for the info

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