The campaign to recall Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker could be tied — or Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett could lag 7 points back. That’s the conflicting report that two polls released Wednesday gave of the heated Wisconsin race.
A poll run by Celinda Lake for the Greater Wisconsin Committee’s political fund, a pro-labor group, showed Republican Walker and Democrat Barrett deadlocked at 49 percent each. Meanwhile, a Marquette University poll showed Walker leading Barrett, 52 to 45.
The Marquette poll ran from May 23-26, while the Celinda Lake poll ran from May 24-28. The discrepancy between the polls could partially be explained by that, as there has been some evidence that Barrett is gaining on Walker as election day nears.
The race between Walker and Barrett is likely to come down to which candidate can get out the vote. Recall elections are unusual, in that they happen at an unusual time of year. If the race is within a few points, a difference in enthusiasm could be the difference between Walker surviving and Walker becoming the first Wisconsin governor to lose his job via recall.
But even if the Marquette poll is right, and Walker has a solid lead, Democrats can still find a silver lining in it; the same poll shows Barack Obama handily defeating Mitt Romney in the state, 51-43. Wisconsin is considered a swing state in 2012, but Obama isn’t showing signs of struggle there. Even if Democrats can’t oust Walker, at least they appear set to deliver Wisconsin’s electoral votes to Obama.
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