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New Polls Give Different Reads on Wisconsin Race

New Polls Give Different Reads on Wisconsin Race

The campaign to recall Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker could be tied — or Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett could lag 7 points back. That’s the conflicting report that two polls released Wednesday gave of the heated Wisconsin race.

A poll run by Celinda Lake for the Greater Wisconsin Committee’s political fund, a pro-labor group, showed Republican Walker and Democrat Barrett deadlocked at 49 percent each. Meanwhile, a Marquette University poll showed Walker leading Barrett, 52 to 45.

The Marquette poll ran from May 23-26, while the Celinda Lake poll ran from May 24-28. The discrepancy between the polls could partially be explained by that, as there has been some evidence that Barrett is gaining on Walker as election day nears.

The race between Walker and Barrett is likely to come down to which candidate can get out the vote. Recall elections are unusual, in that they happen at an unusual time of year. If the race is within a few points, a difference in enthusiasm could be the difference between Walker surviving and Walker becoming the first Wisconsin governor to lose his job via recall.

But even if the Marquette poll is right, and Walker has a solid lead, Democrats can still find a silver lining in it; the same poll shows Barack Obama handily defeating Mitt Romney in the state, 51-43. Wisconsin is considered a swing state in 2012, but Obama isn’t showing signs of struggle there. Even if Democrats can’t oust Walker, at least they appear set to deliver Wisconsin’s electoral votes to Obama.

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Image Credit: WisPolitics.com

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19 comments

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7:49AM PDT on Jun 5, 2012

I have noticed, over the years, that Marquette University Polls have always leaned to the right and when the dust settles, they are almost always proven wrong. They were way off with the 2008 Presidential Election. And yet they are still considered a credible source. BS. I think they ask a lot of conservative districts and then place their findings.

2:08AM PDT on Jun 3, 2012

Sometimes a president can't go to a state in trouble. His heart is with Wisconsin, and RECALLING Walker. Believe me, he sent Clinton because he couldn't go. Obama is a "Middle Class" kind of guy. Romney is way upper and wouldn't know a middle class problem if he ate it! All eyes are on Wisconsin, and we pray for a RECALL!

5:32PM PDT on Jun 2, 2012

Corporations may be "people", but last I checked they still can't vote. Let's hope the people of Wisconsin go to vote en mass on Tuesday. Wouldn't it be sweet if they got 75% turn out.

It amazes me that 50% of the population still think Walker is their man. He sold his soul a long time ago. Follow the money.

2:06PM PDT on Jun 2, 2012

Down with the gop !!!!

10:24AM PDT on Jun 2, 2012

The recall is an battle the Republicans can't win. They've outspent the Democrats and their allies on advertising by at least six to one, probably a lot more since the Dems have concentrated a much higher percentage of resources on election day get out the vote efforts. If Walker falls, the takeaway is that money can't buy votes, and the personal connection to voters is how you win elections. Obama-Biden has software and a voter database that the right can't duplicate in less than two years.

If Walker survives, Dems and their allies will be spurred to put that much more money and effort into November. The GOP can't raise the stakes – just putting the equivalent dollars per person effort into the fall that they've spent on the recall would require well in excess of $20 billion. Will the Koch Brothers, Fries et al donate every cent they can make liquid to unseat Obama? More importantly, throwing every wing nut thought at the wall and hoping something sticks would be the best was to alienate the center and turn a close loss into a party destroying route.

7:51PM PDT on Jun 1, 2012

The Wisconsin election is the first test of whether or not the democracy will survive the Supreme Court's horrendous Citizens United decision. It will help us to determine if the vested interests like the Koch Brothers, Karl Rove and the rest of the millionarires and billionaires supporting the Republican candidates willdrastically out spend their opponents on dishonest costly ads and buy the elections. If they succeed the United States of America and our democracy are in for roughand dark times ahead as the Koch Brothers two votes mean more that thousands or hundreds of thousands of regular citizens. Our 236 year experiment in democracy and freedom may be coming to an end.

3:22PM PDT on Jun 1, 2012

The Kochs and other Republican criminals have done more to defeat democracy than Caligula did in his time.

12:28PM PDT on Jun 1, 2012

"Polls? We don't need no stinkin' polls!"
The proof is in the pudding. Let's hope Bill Clinton can get the vote out and work his magic. I can't wait for Tuesday! Hopefully, all that money spent on Walker will be a big waste!

12:02PM PDT on Jun 1, 2012

In 2008 the people were motivated to vote for change. Now, those people are not in the same numbers. The unions are great machines for getting out the vote but the money the Republicans are throwing in Wisconsin will prove too much.

10:38AM PDT on Jun 1, 2012

It does not make any sense that the polls would show walker having more votes and yet Obama has more votes as Obama has PO a lot of progressives. I think most of these polls are flawed according to who conducts them. Polls are nothing more than propaganda to sway you to vote one way or another. Where was Obama when the unions in Wisconsin were being gutted? He was silent AWOL no where to be seen or heard. Walker is going going goneeee.

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