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Is A Republican Tsunami Coming? GOP Up Ten Points In Latest Gallup Poll

Is A Republican Tsunami Coming? GOP Up Ten Points In Latest Gallup Poll

The latest news from Gallup will have Republicans in a state of jubilation — they are outperforming Democrats by a significant margin when it come to a generic head to head match-up, and utterly trouncing them when it comes to voter enthusiasm.

From the Gallup Polls site:

Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.

These results are based on aggregated data from registered voters surveyed Aug. 23-29 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. This marks the fifth week in a row in which Republicans have held an advantage over Democrats — one that has ranged between 3 and 10 points.

How historic are these numbers?  In 1994, the year of the new “Contract With America” Republican Resurgence, Gallup only had Republicans leading by 5 points.

So is another conservative landslide coming our way?  Gallup believes it might be time to get prepared.

The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall’s midterm congressional elections. Gallup’s generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost. Republicans’ presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major “wave” election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House.

Still, Gallup reminds everyone that like all polls, this is just a snapshot in time:

One cautionary note: Democrats moved ahead in Gallup’s generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer, showing that change is possible between now and Election Day.

Another aspect to consider?  Polling was done last week — before, during and after some very heated and contentious primary races, which could have upped enthusiasm for voting, especially in races where an actual Republican candidate was yet to be determined.

Generic Republican candidate is holding quite a substantial lead over Generic Democratic candidate.  But will these numbers continue to hold up when voters are presented real people in real races?  As we can see in Nevada, where Republicans are having a serious case of buyer’s remorse, sometimes nothing can ever reach the perfection of a “generic” candidate when in real life, people have actual positions and, worse yet, talk about them.

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237 comments

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12:15PM PDT on Sep 9, 2010

I have no problem with a person, regardless of party who can do the job.

10:01PM PDT on Sep 5, 2010

If people will recall what THEY were like last time,then NO there will NOT be a tsunami of support!

3:00PM PDT on Sep 5, 2010

Patricia S...for me it is not about "far left wingers" or middle of the roaders or the right wing.It is about being an educated voter,a voter who is thinking rationally...dare I say critically....critical thinking.What scares me the most in these midterms are people who will cast their vote based on fear("false evidence appearing real"),misinformation, and anger.I feel someone who is full of fear and/or anger are on an emotional roller coaster and then a slippery slide.They are far from being in a balanced,centered rational place....clear thinking cannot take place when someone is running w/ fear and/or anger.Fear creates anxiety which creates worry which creates panic and voila...misery because all those emotions are swirling around and the person is swirling in it.Pat s...blaming Bush may be getting old but what he did to deserve the continuous blame is still true....his policies over 8 yrs. got us where we were when Obama was running for Prez.Obama inherited the mess and I feel he has worked hard to get things turned around.I shudder to think what may have happened to our economy(and beyond) if the stimulus package(and TARP) had not been passed.I have read it would have been worse than the Great Depression.What is sad,disappointing and upsetting is the inertness in the Senate.There are 2 bills(if I am not mistaken) collecting dust because the Repuglicans(not a typo) are doing their usual "NO" posture.The energy/climate change bill has a jobs piece in it and there is a bi

12:08AM PDT on Sep 5, 2010

GOD help our country if they are allowed to come back and rape and steal our rights away. They do nothing but LIE,LIE,LIE. Sadly their fearmongering works because there are so many who NEVER check for what is real or what is a lie. Look at what they made up for the health care that everyone is in need of. What is so gross it allows the large corp. to utilize the good of the bill as they try to make the left look so bad. I am appalled at the behavior that they have stooped to....GOD BLESS AMERICA....keep the GOP out!!

7:35AM PDT on Sep 4, 2010

The only way 2010 would become another "tsunami" for the GOP is if they manage to rig the voting machines AGAIN. As for the Gallup Poll, I imagine they favor whatever party offers them the most money. Just WHO are their registered voters? I'm certainly not nor my partner. You want certain results all you have to do is poll a demographic area that will give you the results you want. The Gallup Poll has the knowledge and technology to exploit this technique. Everytime I hear the word "poll" these days, all that comes to mind. For you lovers of the GOP, apparently you love being used and thrown away by a group of selfish, egotistical wealthy manipulators who are running government so they benefit the most. Next time there's a major job loss due to yet another corporation moving out of the country and you're on your asses on the sidewalks without a home, know that you contributed to your own demise. Keep voting for the one party that takes pride in taking away American jobs, stealing money from Wall Street & US taxpayers for their own pockets and letting the oil industry get away with murder. When one of your children, relatives or friend gets killed in Afghanistan or Iraq, remember which party started the war. Anyone that continues to rave about the GOP at this stage of life in the US has to be irreversibly stupid or making money through them. The GOP has shown its true nature... that of a greedy sociopath with no moral compass whatsoever.

12:17PM PDT on Sep 3, 2010

Unless you are wealthy or own a big corporation, why would you want to be surpressed like the middle class was during the Bush administration. What did the Republicans do for you the middle class people? I being middle class, was given a higher tax burden so the wealthy could enjoy not paying taxes. That was the only thing the Republicans did for me. Besides, I can't believe how the Republican lie and base everything on fear. I don't want anyone like that representing me.

11:57AM PDT on Sep 3, 2010

maybe old but still a fact.

5:43AM PDT on Sep 3, 2010

Sure looks like the republicans will be in the win, but, cheer up, all you far left-wingers. You won't have to blame Bush anymore, you can blame all of the republican congress for it. The Bush blame sure has been getting old, now, hasn't it?

7:53AM PDT on Sep 2, 2010

i understand that in the us you are bombarded with a lot of propaganda. go and find the truth and you will know when you find it just as you know when you are kidding yourself.
step out of your little box and look around.
it is not about this or that country it is about the world.
so whoever protects the planet and all that comes with it, that would be who i would want. we have seen that the former president certainly didn't help and really didn't even have a clue about the world, let's be honest.

i am sure there are good people within the demo and the rep, but it is the people who should be heard.
and building hate doesn't ever work.
just facts no hate.

5:22AM PDT on Sep 2, 2010

Well Barbara it is nice of you to acknowledge finally that the Dems are destroying SS, Medicare, and our education system, and the economy. I like it when people can be honest that BOTH parties are contributing to the problems.

Now maybe it is time to stop the finger pointing and start working on solutions.

Obama, Biden, and Pelosi were part of the Bush years. It is time they take responsibility for their actions then and now.

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