Is A Republican Tsunami Coming? GOP Up Ten Points In Latest Gallup Poll
The latest news from Gallup will have Republicans in a state of jubilation — they are outperforming Democrats by a significant margin when it come to a generic head to head match-up, and utterly trouncing them when it comes to voter enthusiasm.
From the Gallup Polls site:
Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP’s largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup’s history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress.
These results are based on aggregated data from registered voters surveyed Aug. 23-29 as part of Gallup Daily tracking. This marks the fifth week in a row in which Republicans have held an advantage over Democrats — one that has ranged between 3 and 10 points.
How historic are these numbers? In 1994, the year of the new “Contract With America” Republican Resurgence, Gallup only had Republicans leading by 5 points.
So is another conservative landslide coming our way? Gallup believes it might be time to get prepared.
The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall’s midterm congressional elections. Gallup’s generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost. Republicans’ presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major “wave” election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House.
Still, Gallup reminds everyone that like all polls, this is just a snapshot in time:
One cautionary note: Democrats moved ahead in Gallup’s generic ballot for several weeks earlier this summer, showing that change is possible between now and Election Day.
Another aspect to consider? Polling was done last week — before, during and after some very heated and contentious primary races, which could have upped enthusiasm for voting, especially in races where an actual Republican candidate was yet to be determined.
Generic Republican candidate is holding quite a substantial lead over Generic Democratic candidate. But will these numbers continue to hold up when voters are presented real people in real races? As we can see in Nevada, where Republicans are having a serious case of buyer’s remorse, sometimes nothing can ever reach the perfection of a “generic” candidate when in real life, people have actual positions and, worse yet, talk about them.