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Should We Panic About the New Bird Flu in China? No, But…

Should We Panic About the New Bird Flu in China? No, But…

Seven people have died and 24 have been sickened in China from a new strain of bird flu, H7N9. Chinese authorities have ordered the slaughter of 20,000 birds in a live poultry market in Shanghai, after a pigeon with the virus was detected there. So far, no humans have reportedly been infected with the virus by another human, though one person who had been in contact with one of those who died from H7N9 has been quarantined after exhibiting flu-like symptoms.

The victims include a 4-year-old child and 15 adults, including an 87-year-old man in Shanghai. All those who have died became ill between February 19 and March 31 and have had some connection to the poultry markets; the most recent person reported to have died from H7N9 is a 38-year-old chef, surnamed Hong, who worked in Jiangsu (the province next to Shanghai). Chinese officials have been tracking 100 people with close connections to those who became ill and none have become sick yet, NBC reports.

Nonethless, residents of Shanghai displaying any symptoms of flu have been hurrying to emergency rooms and foregoing chicken. The U.S.’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is at work developing a vaccine against H7N9.

Should We Be Worried?

As of Monday, April 8, the World Health Organization emphasizes that there is no need for “over-reaction or panic,” Reuters reports.

Caution is certainly understandable in the wake of the outbreak of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), which began about a decade ago in the Chinese province of Guangdong, killed nearly 800 and sickened more than 8,000. Chinese health officials initially sought to cover-up the outbreak, not letting officials from the WHO visit Guangdong for five weeks and then hiding sick patients from WHO officials. This initial secrecy was, according to experts, one reason SARS spread around the globe.

In the case of H7N9, Chinese officials have offered informationrelatively quicker,” as The Economist puts it. Users on Sina Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter, have been wondering why the government waited two weeks to announce the first two cases in March.

CDC director Thomas R. Frieden has said that Americans planning to go to China should still do so, while following longstanding recommendations to avoid contact with birds and other animals. Certainly, tourists should avoid live poultry markets. Shanghai officials have told residents that eating cooked chicken is all right. The virus seems to respond to other medications (Tamifu, Relenza) for the flu and the WHO says that it is “not advising screening at points of entry or any trade restrictions in connection with the outbreak.”

Scientists Studying H7N9′s Genetic Sequence, Urge Caution

The CDC and its counterpart in China have been working in “close cooperation,” leading to China posting information about the genetic sequence of H7N9 on the GISAID flu sequence database so that researchers can learn “what clues the genome might hold  — including the source of the virus, its pathogenicity and its potential to infect, and spread between, humans,” says Nature.

With SARS in mind, scientists are still warning of a potential panic should the H7N9 virus mutate into a form that would allow human-to-human transmission. John Oxford, a professor of virology at Queen Mary, University of London, pointed out that the new bird virus has so far had a “relative high fatality rate” and has been detected in poultry that did not present with other evident signs of illness, notes the New York Times.

Another avian virus, H5N1, has wiped out poultry stocks in southeast Asia and killed some 300 people since 2003. But H5N1 can be controlled by “extensive culling,” says Nature. As Malik Peiris, a flu virologist at the University of Hong Kong, notes, a virus with “few visible symptoms” in birds could be “almost impossible to control”; it might already be too late to wipe such a virus out.

As The Economist describes, the second person to die of the new bird flu was a 27-year-old pork butcher, Wu Liangliang, in Shanghai. His family thought he had pneumonia for 20 days until learning he was listed as having died from H7N9 via a television report. The butcher’s father-in-law, Wu Desen, says he was treated in the same department at the Fifth People’s Hospital, where the flu’s first victim, an 87-old-man surnamed Li, died. Li’s two sons also had flu-like symptoms and one, aged 55, has died and the other recovered; authorities, after not citing H7N9 in their deaths, are reinvestigating.

In light of what we know about SARS and its spread and about recent and growing concerns about the safety of the food supply in China, if you’re traveling there, the CDC’s advice about avoiding birds and other live animals is simply commonsensical. As Peiris emphasizes in Nature, we “should not overreact, but neither should we be complacent.”

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50 comments

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3:44AM PDT on May 1, 2013

I never panic about this stuff. It will be over soon.

10:51PM PDT on Apr 19, 2013

"We should not over-react neither should we be complacent." Well said. Thanks for sharing.

12:38PM PDT on Apr 14, 2013

No racist remarks please people.. unfortunately some don't know very better about cleanliness or just don't care because they need money or they will die.

1:33PM PDT on Apr 11, 2013

I find the idea that we should 'not panic' to be an interesting concept. Exactly what would we do if we were to panic? You might as well panic about being hit by a meteorite! Frankly the very best we, as ordinary people, can do is to make sure that our respective governments do everything they can to control any outbreak and that if we keep birds, especially chickens, ourselves that we follow all the appropriate precautions. Panic causes sloppiness and poor handling techniques - surely that is how such viruses develop in the first place.

10:41AM PDT on Apr 10, 2013

This is why ALL animals need to roam free and not be caged. Cramming a bunch of animals in a small cage is cruel and it breeds diseases. Happens in the United States (chickens,pigs,cows, baby calves, baby lambs, etc...) and is the reason why 80% of all antibiotics sold are given to animals. Eventually superbugs are created that antibiotics can't kill. Please read about what's happening in our own country, it's tragic for the animals-not to mention YOU. Better yet, do yourself a favor and stop eating meat, because when you eat the meat you're eating the drugs the animals are given. If you insist on eating meat then buy from a local producer that treats their animals with kindness instead of drugs!

8:40AM PDT on Apr 10, 2013

I agree with Nora J. Chinese people have no regard for cleanliness. They keep themselves, animals and anything else they go near FILTHY. Any Chinatown I have visited was a disgrace. The sidewalks and drains in the street are greasy and dirty. The Chinese dump used cooking oil into the storm drains, I have watched them do it. Viruses can't multiply fast enough in China do to the fact these folks just don't see any reason to keep anything clean. I feel so sorry for any animal that has to live their life in that horrid country.

6:17AM PDT on Apr 10, 2013

Just pay attention to our life style

5:57AM PDT on Apr 10, 2013

Isn't that the "balance of trade?" China gets jobs and sends back diseases.

2:56AM PDT on Apr 10, 2013

Knowing that more persons are killed in car accidents every day,nobody panics when they drive to work.

1:34AM PDT on Apr 10, 2013

Oh boy, here we go again.

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Kristina Chew Kristina Chew teaches ancient Greek, Latin and Classics at Saint Peter's University in New Jersey.... more
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