Two Polls, Two Very Different Results In Florida

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is in a statistical tie with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in Florida.

No, wait. Romney is leading in Florida.

What?

Two different polls show a race that is literally changing moment to moment, with a Quinnipiac poll that has Romney over Gingrich 36 to 34, and an American Research Group poll that has Romney ahead 41 to 34.

The difference, it seems, is the dates on which people were polled. The Quinnipiac poll was taken in the days prior to and following the South Carolina primary, which gave Gingrich a huge boost in support. ARG, on the other hand, did their polling around the most recent debate, which many thought Gingrich underperformed in, possibly explaining the drop.

So why is the day to day shift in this race so important? Because unlike many states, Florida allows many to cast primary votes either by absentee ballot or during the early voting period. According to ARG, “A total of 17% of Republican primary voters say that they have already voted by absentee ballot or in early voting. Of this group of voters, Romney leads with 51%, followed by Gingrich with 39%, Paul with 6%, and Santorum with 4%. Among the 83% of the remaining likely Republican primary voters, Romney leads with 39%, followed by Gingrich with 33%, Santorum with 10%, and Paul with 7%.”

Early voting can make a significant change in election results. In both Iowa and South Carolina, the eventual winner was primarily pushed over the finish line by voters who did not make up their minds on a candidate until the last few days. The final debate, a last minute round of commercials, a total blunder like Romney’s inability to answer questions about his tax returns, can turn a close race into an upset.

Will early voting have a large impact on Florida? We’ll see on Saturday.

Photo credit: Gage Skidmore, via wikimedia commons

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are solely those of the author and may not reflect those of
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Nancy L.

9:07AM PST on Jan 30, 2012

Ron Paul definitely has the right idea. Allow people to live their own lives, no protecting us from ourselves like the democrats want to do. Personal freedom, no handouts, and no policing the world.

send a green star

Marilyn L.

3:46PM PST on Jan 27, 2012

It is amazing that people just cannot read and see facts; the deficits started with wonder boy Reagan (Republican), continue with GHB (Republican) until Clinton (Democrat) gave us a surplus that was suppose to grow and last for the next 25 years and then that was squandered away by the idiots GWB (Republican) and crew and it wasn't enough that GWB and crew squandered away the surplus they gave us a huge deficit, two wars, for the first time ever torture by Americans, gave the rich a tax break and screw the rest of us, and left us and President Obama with the worst economic mess since the great depression. Anyone see a Party pattern here? You want improvement reelect President Obama and every Democrat you can fine for Congress and in your State, County and City elections.

Evan M.

5:03PM PST on Jan 26, 2012

LOL! You know something? I think you all people are the ones listening to Fox and Limbaugh and all the other stuff you accuse us of listening to. How in the world would you know what their saying if you didn't listen to them.
I base what I've said on what I've seen happen over the years.
My father left NASA after Kennedy was killed and LBJ created welfare, I disliked Nixon because he was dishonest, I disliked Regan because he did nothing, I disliked Clinton because he couldn't keep his pecker in his pants even IN THE WHITE HOUSE!! I disliked Bush Jr because I thought he was an arrogant bully, and I dislike Obama because he has done nothing to help our country. Don't for me this crap about trying to fix Bushes mess our line item vetoing, etc. etc. etc. He's a puppet!
You guys bad mouthed and verbally crucified any and everyone you disagree with or who disagrees with you. You all are hateful and ignorant, not me.
It would be nice to see Romney win just to see you guys spit and scream.
You guys should be fertilizer salesmen! You would be millionaires with all the crap you spew.

Jan N.

3:58PM PST on Jan 26, 2012

Robin needs to stop obsessing over polls. She seems to think they really mean something.

Elizabeth K.

3:05PM PST on Jan 26, 2012

Evan, when someone constantly repeats what Rush, Limbaugh, and the rest of Fox puts out there, it is only natural to assume that they not only listen to them, but agree with them.

Linda T.

12:16PM PST on Jan 26, 2012

As an early voter myself I can honestly say that I have picked my canidate long before I cast my early vote based on experience, research, character, and policies that I like about the canidate. I don't vote on emotion or on which canidate can one up the other best.

Virginia B.

11:28AM PST on Jan 26, 2012

If the Republicans pick Newt, they'll have an unhealthy man. Any glimpses I've had of him point to many health problems. If he wins, they'd better think long and hard about whom they choose for V. P.!

11:24AM PST on Jan 26, 2012

It's always the same stupid comment Christopher. Why is it that you guys always instantly go to faux news and limpballs every time someone disagrees with your train of thought?
Tell me, what is REAL news? CNN? MSNBC? FOX? ABC? You think any one speaks the real honest truth? Do you honestly think that any one of them tells the whole story, the whole truth, without their own slant on what their trying to talk about? Hell no! None of them do.
I base my opinion on what I see happening in this country at the present time, not what twisted bullcrap comes out of someone's mouth. I also don't base my opinion on the mistakes people, or parties, have made in the past.
I could bitch about LBJ when he started his "war on poverty" which is now our screwed up welfare program, or Nixon being a crook, or Clinton cheating on his wife IN THE WHITE HOUSE! But all that crap and all the rest of the crap that liberals and conservatives are spouting is making me sick.
I want to see someone take charge of this country,like a president is supposed to, and put this country in the position it should be.
Obama hasn't done it, in my opinion, so its time for him to step down and let someone else try. After 30 years of B grade actors, cheaters, bullies and puppets, its time for a real president.

Maurice S.

10:29AM PST on Jan 26, 2012

and now they already the same ballots games under themselfs,good i like the jerks going dawn
vote obama 2012

Mark S.

10:01AM PST on Jan 26, 2012

Florida is already rigged to make sure the GOP wins, no matter the candidate.