We have less than 12 days to go before Wisconsin decides whether or not to recall its Governor, Republican Scott Walker, and polls are flying. One shows Walker leading his Democratic challenger, Tom Barrett, by 8 percent, and another shows him up by a slightly smaller margin of just 5 percent.
Many pundits are claiming this means the race is mostly decided. But is it? The 5 percent poll actually has a margin of error of 5 percent as well, meaning the two are in a statistical tie. And a tie is what Democrats are seeing in their polling, too. According to the Post Crescent, “In a news release Tuesday, Barrett’s campaign said a survey conducted May 19-21 gives Walker a 50 to 47 lead that falls within the poll’s four-point margin of error. The poll also showed Barrett leading 50 to 44 among independents.”
So, who is going to win? Once again, it comes down to whoever best turns out their voters. Politico reports, “Brian Sikma, who runs a conservative media-tracking outfit in Wisconsin, believes if voters were set on dislodging Walker after just 17 months in office, they would’ve been convinced by now. But Sikma cautioned that it would be foolish to think Walker would stroll to victory in an evenly divided, polarized state. ‘This is still a turnout battle,’ Sikma said, ‘so it is a mistake to write off the outcome as certain one way or the other.’”
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