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HOW ASSAD'S FALL IN SYRIA COULD OVERTURN THE WHOLE MIDDLE EAST CHESSBOARD


World  (tags: world, middle-east, news, politics, Syrai, Assad, regime change, regional mplications, diplomacy, society, interesting )

Cal
- 1040 days ago - worldcrunch.com
Analysis: Both inside and outside the Middle East, a consensus appears to be forming that the Assad regime in Damascus must go. But if it does, be prepared for the reverberations to be felt from Tehran and Beirut to Ankara and Riyadh.



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Comments

ellen m. (222)
Thursday November 24, 2011, 1:29 pm
The middle east is such an ever changing, sometime evolving work in progress that even if this analysis were true, which I believe it is, the fall of Assad would not be the end or even necessarily the cause for future problems in the region.
Unlike insaniTEA, which we need to get rid of to be even reasonably safe and back on a positive track in this country. Thanks Cal..hows your Trypteline (?) levels doing?
 

ellen m. (222)
Thursday November 24, 2011, 1:42 pm
My bad...Triptalyne :-)))
 

Past Member (0)
Friday November 25, 2011, 4:51 am
thanks, noted
 

John Tambeau (8)
Friday November 25, 2011, 6:20 am
Assad is destined to fall it's all part of the global conspiracy to make a one world government. I predicted things along with others. So next would be Iran and then onto russia. I asked people to look at the big picture but most people are all concerned with themselves and don't look outside the box.
 

Allan Yorkowitz (453)
Friday November 25, 2011, 10:45 am
Truthfully, once Syria falls, the Arab League should force the Lebanese out of power as well. This would finally free the Middle East from Hezbollah control, and get rid of the Shiites once and for all.
This will not bring democracy to Lebanon, but it will release the Lebanese from the tyranny of fear they live under.
 

Sue Matheson (71)
Friday November 25, 2011, 10:45 am
thanks.
 

Vicky P. (464)
Friday November 25, 2011, 10:54 am
I hope he does go, he's killing people who want their freedom, and needs to leave and let people live their lives.
 

Holly Lawrence (473)
Friday November 25, 2011, 2:23 pm
thank you!
 

Meta Reid (1)
Friday November 25, 2011, 4:20 pm
If Assad falls, I won't loose any sleep or cry in my soup. Him falling from power (?); couldn't happen to a nicer guy!
 

Bruce Van Tassell (7)
Friday November 25, 2011, 7:24 pm
No way the bastard has to go don't believe this Israel crap they are the ones worried about balances of power for no one wants them to have any more power or access to nuclear power. Say no nuclear power for Israel or Iran or let them both have it.
 

Dave C. (214)
Friday November 25, 2011, 7:37 pm
very interesting......
 

Donna Hamilton (141)
Friday November 25, 2011, 8:16 pm
Just hope it leads to greater freedom and true democracy for the people; and that no religious extremists gain power.
 

WAYNE LEMARBLE HM3 (7)
Saturday November 26, 2011, 12:48 am
HOW CAN WE EXPECT CHINA AND RUSSIA TO ACT DIFFERENLY-BOTH ARE STILL VERY CLOSED TO POLIITCAL FREEDOM...
 

Stan B. (123)
Saturday November 26, 2011, 1:12 am
Another Arab despot destined for the scrap heap. Can't understand the numb-skulls who have to drag Israel into the equation. What the hell have Syrians fighting for democracy got to do with Israel?
 

Penelope P. (222)
Saturday November 26, 2011, 4:15 am
interesting
 

ewoud k. (73)
Saturday November 26, 2011, 6:21 am
It was the western and arab world's fear for political shanges in the region, with clashes between different tribes, families, sectes and other small religious and political groups that permitted Assad to stay in power.

He sort of overplayed his hand, and is now doomed to fall.

What will happen next? That's the question, nobody really knows. But can this uncertain future be worse than what's happening now?
 

Elize Labuschagne (190)
Saturday November 26, 2011, 7:41 am
Within politics there is also politics.
 

John Coleman (18)
Saturday November 26, 2011, 9:35 am
Assad's losingf power would be good in one respect since he is a problem in the area and a nasty piece of work, but from what we've seen in both Egypt and Libya "democracy" and "peace" isn't what will occur there. Likely more violence and tribal/ethnic/sectarian conflict at best and the rise of a more virulent, radical, fundamentalist islam at worst.
 

Marianna Molnar Woods (9)
Saturday November 26, 2011, 10:53 am
noted
 

Robert O. (12)
Saturday November 26, 2011, 11:00 am
Thanks Cal.
 

Past Member (0)
Saturday November 26, 2011, 4:18 pm
As usual, we have Mr Yorkowitz singing from the Zionist hymnbook.
 

Bruce Van Tassell (7)
Saturday November 26, 2011, 5:13 pm
Would this mad man like everyone to believe this so he can continue on Russia and China to block moves at UN
 

Stan B. (123)
Saturday November 26, 2011, 7:21 pm
And we have Mr. Duqesa more than happy to support a regime which is prepared to slaughter thousands of its own people and torture dozens of children. How sick can you get?
Even the Arab League is going to introduce sanctions against Syria. This is most unusual as Arabs don't normally worry about Arabs killing other Arabs.
 

Bob Algeron (47)
Saturday November 26, 2011, 7:54 pm
At least, Assad keeps Islamists in check. On the other hand, he feeds from Iranian hands and is under order to support Arab terrorists in Judea and Gaza, which he obeys to.

I would say, neither Assad nor his current opposition are pro-democracy people whom I would like to see in power.
 

Past Member (0)
Sunday November 27, 2011, 12:13 am
Stan B

"This is most unusual as Arabs don't normally worry about Arabs killing other Arabs."

My goodness, the Syria threads really get the racist creatures here crawling out from under their stones.
 

Stan B. (123)
Sunday November 27, 2011, 12:26 am
Here's a simple question for you John because I've come to the conclusion that you're a simple guy.
Do you approve of the Syrian regime TORTURING children? Just a yes or no will do just fine. Don't try to spin this because it will make you look even more naive.
 

Past Member (0)
Sunday November 27, 2011, 12:34 am
Please give me unequivocal proof of that allegation from a respectable source and I might answer you. In the meantime, I have exposed your foul anti-Arab racism for all to see.
 

Stan B. (123)
Sunday November 27, 2011, 11:37 am
Try this one.
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/126997/un-voices-alarm-at-torture-of-children-in-syria-.html
Or this one.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2066427/UN-fears-torture-execution-children-civillians-Syrian-pro-democracy-rallies.html
Or this one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQEUcI2Olrs

Then put up or shut up.The only thing you've exposed is your total ignorance.
 

Past Member (0)
Sunday November 27, 2011, 5:37 pm
Hello Stan.

I don't think you understand what unequivocal proof is.

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/126997/un-voices-alarm-at-torture-of-children-in-syria-.html

A Jerusalem Post article - in fact a horrendously biassed pro-Zionist and pro-Occupation/Colonisation newspaper - is not proof.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2066427/UN-fears-torture-execution-children-civillians-

I didn't even bother going to this one simply becasue of the "UN fears" blah blah in the title. So clearly, no proof.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQEUcI2Olrs

And here we have a clip of what may be an injured child, who seems mute, who says nothing, who makes no allegations. My Arabic is not good enough to decipher the very poor soundtrack, but this is clearly not proof.

So, Stan, try again.



 

Stan B. (123)
Sunday November 27, 2011, 8:41 pm
This is the last post I'm going to waste on you John. There is none so blind as the who will not see.
This is from the Amnesty International site. Let's see how you wriggle out of this one.
New fears for Syrian child protesters

Amnesty International has urged Syrian authorities to protect child protesters amid fresh reports of young people being tortured and killed.

Video evidence has emerged in recent days of two new cases of teenagers – Thamer al-Sahri and Nazir ‘Abd al-Kader – dying after receiving injuries caused by beatings and gunshot wounds.

“Reports that the Syrian security forces have tortured and killed children in their custody would, if confirmed, mark a new low in their bloody repression of protests,” said Philip Luther, Deputy Director of Amnesty International’s Middle East and North Africa Programme.

“The violent deaths suffered by Thamer al-Sahri and other children are utterly shocking, as is the Syrian authorities’ apparent lack of action to rein in the security forces accused of being responsible for them.”

International media released an amateur video on Thursday purportedly showing the body of 15-year-old Thamer al-Sahri, which was returned to his family in the Syrian village of Jeeza the day before.

He disappeared on 29 April following attempts by villagers to reach the besieged southern city of Dera’a. Some 500 people were reportedly arrested in the area that day.

The video apparently shows his body punctured by bullet wounds and missing one eye and several teeth. His neck and one leg were also reportedly broken.

Thamer al-Sahri is the fourth child reported to have died in custody since March. Syrian human rights activists have reported the deaths under torture of Diyaa Yahya Khatib, 16, from Homs and Saleh Ahmed al-Khateb, 14, from Dera’a during their detention in March and April, respectively.

Protesters in Syria were galvanized by news of the death late last month of 13-year0-old Hamza al-Khateeb. He went missing amid mass arrests near Dera’a on 29 April, and was later reported as being held by Air Force Security.

Syrian authorities denied that Hamza al-Khateeb had been tortured or that his body had been mutilated, saying that he died after being shot by an armed group and that the body had decomposed during the period before it was returned to his family.

A forensic specialist consulted by Amnesty International analysed a video of his body and concluded that the injuries visible indicated that the boy had suffered repeated violence with a blunt instrument while still alive. He also identified evidence of two gunshot wounds, one to the chest, apparently fired at close range, and one to the arm, with lesions suggesting the boy was alive at this point, too.

Yesterday Amnesty International received a video clip showing the body of yet another individual – said to be Nazir ‘Abd al-Kader, probably aged 18 or 19, given reports that he finished his schooling in 2010 – showing evidence of brutal treatment. According to a doctor who examined the body, Nazir’s kneecaps had been smashed, his skull damaged and his neck broken before he was shot. He is believed to have been in the custody of security forces at the time of his death.

Some 32 children, aged between 12 and 17, remain in detention in apparent connection with protests and could be at risk of torture or other ill-treatment. Of these, at least nine are from the southern city of Dera’a.

Demonstrations demanding reform began in February, and from mid-March the Syrian security forces have waged a campaign of violence against the protesters. Amnesty International believes that at least 1,104 people have been killed, including 82 children.

Thousands have been arrested, with many being held incommunicado and reportedly tortured. Amnesty International has documented widespread allegations of torture and other ill-treatment in Syria’s detention centres for decades.

The United Nations Security Council is discussing a draft resolution on the violence in Syria.

“The UN Security Council must act decisively in response to the months of bloodshed in Syria and we believe this should include referring the situation to the International Criminal Court,” said Philip Luther.

“In the absence of serious steps by the Syrian authorities to investigate the current violations, it is time for the international community to ensure that officials responsible for the murder of protesters or the torture of detainees, including children, are brought to justice.”

If you cannot accept this as definitive proof, you have a problem.
 

Past Member (0)
Monday November 28, 2011, 1:52 am
Stan B. Just have a look at the extracts I have C&P'd below and think for yourself. The article is hedged around with equivocation and "if". Either Amnesty are being very careful (and if they have real proof, why would they be?) or they actually don't know. For godness sake, look at the facts, not rumour and innuendo. I think that there are many bad aspects of the Assad government. But I'm not rushing to condemn things that they may well not have done. Instead I praise his government for its universal provision of health care, really good educational facilities (there was a BBC series on this a while back) and the lack of slums.

would, if confirmed

apparent lack of action

purportedly showing

said to be

apparent connection with protests

 
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