North Pole Could Be Ice Free in 2008 - Climate-Change - 25 April 2008 - New Scientist Environment

Thursday May 1, 2008, 4:56 am
Oh, my, gosh. (Those aren't the first words that came out of my mouth upon reading this - but I wanted to be polite.)

Thursday May 1, 2008, 7:46 am

By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website



La Nina conditions have brought unseasonably cold weather to Europe


The Earth's temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted.

Thursday May 1, 2008, 8:08 am

Next Decade 'May See No Warming'

Thursday May 1, 2008, 8:56 am

The Buffalo Fight Back - the buffalo seemingly spoke about the way they were being treated during the Releasing of the Buffalo Spirits ceremony (

Chief Arvol Looking Horse, Lakota, prayed for the buffalo spirits that had been slaughtered in record numbers this year in what has become by far the biggest slaughter of buffalo since the 19th century.

... it would be really good if everyone figured out, that, life was great for the North American Indians, before they were almost completely wiped out, byin the biggest holocaust of all time.

- no diseases from the white man,

- lots of food,

- no pollution,

- no manufactured stress,

- No Pharma Drugs

.... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients ... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients..

... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients


= did I mention...

- no diseases from the white man,

- lots of food,

- no pollution,

- no manufactured stress,

- No Pharma Drugs

.... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients ... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients..

... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients... All Natural Medicine, and Nutrients



.. hey,.. they are banning all natural vitamins, December 31, 2009.



The Buffalo Fight Back - the buffalo seemingly spoke about the way they were being treated during the Releasing of the Buffalo Spirits ceremony

Thursday May 1, 2008, 8:59 am
These stories about the "perhaps" of an ice-free Arctic are meant to cover up the real news and that is IT IS GETTING COLDER.
http://motls.blogspot.com/2008/05/nature-amo-will-stop-warming-until-2020.html
EXCERPT:
Nature: AMO will stop warming until 2020

In this dose of peer-reviewed literature about the climate, we look into Nature.

Noel Keenlyside et al. (from Kiel, Germany)

wrote an article called "Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector." Yes, I mean Kiel where Max Planck was born.

They look at the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influencing the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). The Gulf Stream is the part of the MOC along the East Coast of the U.S., mostly driven by Western winds (i.e. directly by the rotation of Earth). Its extension towards Europe, the North Atlantic Drift, is also supported by thermohaline circulation.
The oscillation is a slow quasiperiodic pattern that usually switches into the opposite regime after 60-70 years. It is a slower process than PDO we discussed a few days ago. Because only sea surface temperatures are available for previous decades, they use them to reconstruct the temperatures inside the ocean. The results are incorporated as a new term in their otherwise "conventional" computer model. With this new term, (validation) skill is improved markedly.

Their conclusion? The predictions for a foreseeable future change dramatically. The MOC will weaken to its long-term mean. The Atlantic Ocean, Europe, and America will cool down slightly in the next decade while the Pacific Ocean won't change. In plain English, the AGW hoax may take timeout till 2018.

Thursday May 1, 2008, 9:15 am

Please support our.. "Save Our Earth" ... Campaign. Do your part, Plant tree's,

Stop using ... "toxic chemicals", (all of them). .. There are better alternatives.

Get more active, and informed, of what's going on your Earth.

Help ... "Save Our Earth" ... Agrogreen Canada Inc.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Help ... "Save Our Earth" ... Diatomite Canada

... HELP ... "SAVE OUR EARTH" ... "Get Conscious" ... NOW !

Stop this all inclusive program, of the destuction of "Our Earth".

- no toxic chemicals from us,.. no chemicals at all.

We are not in this for the money,.. if we were,..we would have sold out,... long ago.

... to the "Toxic Chemical Companies",... of couse.

From Scott, Marcy, and Mike, ... at... Agrogreen Canada Inc. ... and ... Diatomite Canada

Thursday May 1, 2008, 10:19 am
Excellent comments Scott, thank you.

Thursday May 1, 2008, 11:54 am
Well,
I gotta tell ya, the secrets out and if the weather changes by tomorrow, they forcasters are far off the mark. We've had snow as of yesterday, and infact it snowed 3 inches...and we've had a longer winter than expected. We had more -40 degrees days this winter, and I'm still adjusting...*S*
Sorry folks...but please read the story on the following article....

Late Flurry Makes April 2008 the Fourth-Snowiest on Record:
http://www.care2.com/news/member/562953694/728614



I'll let you know how this coming winter comes out since the North Pole is about 10 minutesfrom where I live.....LOL.

And thats a promise....*S*

Thursday May 1, 2008, 3:02 pm
Hey guys I just posted...LOl I thought it was interesting..Dont know much about all this climate change/Global warming stuff...

Big Gorilly Hugs

Thursday May 1, 2008, 4:49 pm
No problem...it may even happen...who knows. I just think its hysterical that so called experts predict, and they haven't even checked out current weather happenings....*s*.

Thursday May 1, 2008, 5:20 pm
What are you doing about it? How many children do you have? All that talk about increased human activity and population going through the roof.

I applaud Care2 for taking a stand on meat. I believe most Democrats still eat McDonald's don't see connection between meat and environment.

People still buy SUV instead of hybrid - all those luxury csrs could be electric instead.

Some of you ride Amtrak, thank you!,most people still fly and drive.

We can get all our energy from wind, solar, geotheramal and tidal - in fact, enough from any for all our needs.

Thursday May 1, 2008, 5:27 pm
Well Daniel if you are talking to me my dear I have two girls and we all recylce everything..I even have a compost pile..I have energy saving light bulbs, I am trying to talk my husband into gettin solar panals on my house. But they are very expensive..Lights get turned off everytime we go out of a room...But alias I still do drive a 83 camaro...I cant car pool for where I work noone goes...LOL
Do you think I am helping a bit??? I feel I am doing some of my part what do you think...

Big Gorilly Hugs....

Friday May 2, 2008, 12:08 am
Read my profile if ya got a minute..Don't fly, Walk to work when it's not too cold or I carpool. Don't eat beef,and recycle everything that can be recycled. And ticked off to high heaven that I pay higher prices for gas that comes from my state, and there is a oil refinery 15 minutes away....especially when it cheaper to refine disiel that is worse for the environment than standard gas.....
There are a whole lot of things Alaskan's are stuck with because the excuse of price of gas ....from a loaf of bread..tiolet paper to a piece of fruit. Tack a fuel price on every single thing..and you got it right....*S* Enough for ya Daniel?

Friday May 2, 2008, 6:52 am
If you all are interested in more information on climate change - and would like to take actions on this issue - I invite you to check out my Global Warming Action group:

http://www.care2.com/c2c/group/StoppingGlobalWarming

Friday May 2, 2008, 9:28 am
When even the BBC admits it hasn't been getting warmer for the last ten years...and the whole premise that the Earth was warming due to human actions was ONLY BASED ON 10 YEARS WORTH OF DATA FROM POORLY KEPT GROUND BASED TEMPERATURE RECORDING STATIONS.....it is time to tell the Warmists to go away!

Friday May 2, 2008, 11:12 am
COOL IT! Forget global warming the world food crisis and health crisis is much more important! The USA and Russia love the North Pole being ICE free!

Friday May 2, 2008, 12:35 pm
The warming trend - which has slowed but by no means has stoped (or cooled) recently is based on MUCH more than ten years of data and not only based on ground temprature recordings!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record

and it is based on SEVERAL data sets - including satellite data:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_temperature_measurements

repeating the "it is cooling" dogma does not make it true :)

When multiple lines of evidence point to warming, one needs to pay attention...

Global warming is contributing to the world food crises and health crisis - so working on it works on these other issues. Not saying that climate change is the ONLY problem we are facing - but it is a major one. Unfortuantely, it is not a problem we can "just forget about" and hope it goes away...

Friday May 2, 2008, 12:50 pm
Please show where the BBC states that there has been NO warming over the last ten years...

Friday May 2, 2008, 9:12 pm
Wiki is a biased source( that has been proven by Lawrence Solomon) and the satellite and balloon data say it is cooling. James Hansen is re-writing history and it is only his GISS data which shows warming because it is using an Urban Heat Island contaminated land based data collection system.

Globe may be cooling on Global Warming
* By DEROY MURDOCK, Scripps Howard News Service

Australia, the land where sinks drain the other way, has alerted Americans that we see Earth's climate upside down: We're not warming. We're cooling.

"Disconcerting as it may be to true believers in global warming, the average temperature on Earth has remained steady or slowly declined during the past decade, despite the continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, and now the global temperature is falling precipitously." Dr. Phil Chapman wrote in The Australian on April 23. "All those urging action to curb global warming need to take off the blinkers and give some thought to what we should do if we are facing global cooling instead."

Chapman neither can be caricatured as a greedy oil-company lobbyist nor dismissed as a flat-Earther. He was a Massachusetts Institute of Technology staff physicist, NASA's first Australian-born astronaut, and Apollo 14's Mission Scientist.

Chapman believes reduced sunspot activity is curbing temperatures. As he elaborates, "there is a close correlation between variations on the sunspot cycle and Earth's climate." Anecdotally, last winter brought record cold to Florida, Mexico, and Greece, and rare snow to Jerusalem, Damascus, and Baghdad. China endured brutal ice and snow.

NASA satellites found that last winter's Arctic Sea ice covered 2 million square kilometers (772,000 square miles) more than the last three years' average. It also was 10 to 20 centimeters (about 4-8 inches) thicker than in 2007. The ice between Canada and southwest Greenland also spread dramatically. "We have to go back 15 years to find ice expansion so far south," Denmark's Meteorological Institute stated.

"Snows Return to Mount Kilimanjaro," cheered a January 21 International Herald Tribune headline, as Africa also defies the "warming" narrative.

While neither anecdotes nor one year's statistics confirm global cooling, a decade of data contradicts the "melting planet" rhetoric that heats Capitol Hill and America's newsrooms.

"The University of Alabama-Huntsville's analysis of data from satellites launched in 1979 showed a warming trend of 0.14 degrees Centigrade (0.25 Fahrenheit) per decade," Joseph D'Aleo, the Weather Channel's first Director of Meteorology, told me. "This warmth peaked in 1998, and the temperature trend the last decade has been flat, even as CO2 has increased 5.5 percent. Cooling began in 2002. Over the last six years, global temperatures from satellite and land-temperature gauges have cooled (-0.14 F and -0.22 F, respectively). Ocean buoys have echoed that slight cooling since the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration deployed them in 2003."

These researchers are not alone. They are among a rising tide of scientists who question the so-called "global warming" theory. Some further argue that global cooling merits urgent concern.

"In stark contrast to the often repeated assertion that the science of climate change is 'settled,' significant new peer-reviewed research has cast even more doubt on the hypothesis of dangerous human-caused global warming," 100 prestigious geologists, physicists, meteorologists, and other scientists wrote United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon last December. They also noted "today's computer models cannot predict climate. Consistent with this, and despite computer projections of temperature rises, there has been no net global warming since 1998."

In a December 2007 Senate Environment and Public Works Committee minority-staff report, some 400 scientists -- from such respected institutions as Princeton, the National Academy of Sciences, the University of London, and Paris' Pasteur Institute -- declared their independence from the pro-warming "conventional wisdom."

"Not CO2, but water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas," asserted climatologist Luc Debontridder of Belgium's Royal Meteorological Institute. "It is responsible for at least 75 percent of the greenhouse effect. This is a simple scientific fact, but Al Gore's movie has hyped CO2 so much that nobody seems to take note of it."

AccuWeather's Expert Senior Forecaster Joe Bastardi has stated: "People are concerned that 50 years from now, it will be warm beyond a point of no return. My concern is almost opposite, that it's cold and getting colder."

And on Wednesday, the respected journal, Nature, indicated that Earth's climactic cycles have stopped global warming through 2015.

If nothing else, all this obliterates the rampant lie that "the scientific debate on global warming is over." That debate rages on.

Assuming that the very serious scientists cited here are correct, the "inconvenient truth" about global-warming is inconveniently false. If so, mankind should chill out and turn our thinking right side up.

(Deroy Murdock is a columnist with Scripps Howard News Service and a media fellow with the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace at Stanford University. E-mail him at deroy.Murdock(at)gmail.com)
http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/32821

Friday May 2, 2008, 10:48 pm
Oh, I thought you said that this was from the BBC..but no it is not..no matter...made up just as warming tremds have been based on only ten years is made up...

If we are cooling - then why was the Artic Ice Extent at a record low last year (2007)???

I presented MULTIPLE lines of evidence of a long-term warming trend (more than ten years and not land based). If you don't like wiki then look at the literature which is cited there - go to the original source...

It does appear that warming has slowed over the last few years - but that is predicted :)

Read this article again (or for the first time):

Next decade 'may see no warming'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7376301.stm
(check out the graph, which showes yet again, that there has been no cooling trend, just a slow down of the warming)

Friday May 2, 2008, 10:58 pm
as to the other - repeated - fallicies in the article you quote, I will direct interested readers to this set of articles:

Climate change: A guide for the perplexed
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11462

Friday May 2, 2008, 11:29 pm
It was Scott who posted the BBC reference, second down from the top. Here's the link.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7376301.stm

Page last updated at 03:11 GMT, Thursday, 1 May 2008 04:11 UK

Next decade 'may see no warming'
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website

Crocuses. Image: AFP/Getty
La Nina conditions have brought unseasonably cold weather to Europe

The Earth's temperature may stay roughly the same for a decade, as natural climate cycles enter a cooling phase, scientists have predicted.

A new computer model developed by German researchers, reported in the journal Nature, suggests the cooling will counter greenhouse warming.

However, temperatures will again be rising quickly by about 2020, they say.

Other climate scientists have welcomed the research, saying it may help societies plan better for the future.

See how modelled temperatures may develop

The key to the new prediction is the natural cycle of ocean temperatures called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which is closely related to the warm currents that bring heat from the tropics to the shores of Europe.

The cause of the oscillation is not well understood, but the cycle appears to come round about every 60 to 70 years.


Imagine the payoff of knowing with some certainty what the next 10 years hold in terms of temperature and precipitation
Professor Michael Schlesinger

It may partly explain why temperatures rose in the early years of the last century before beginning to cool in the 1940s.

"One message from our study is that in the short term, you can see changes in the global mean temperature that you might not expect given the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)," said Noel Keenlyside from the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University.

His group's projection diverges from other computer models only for about 15-20 years; after that, the curves come back together and temperatures rise.

"In the long term, radiative forcing (the Earth's energy balance) dominates. But it's important for policymakers to realise the pattern," he told BBC News.

Deep patterns

Modelling of climatic events in the oceans is difficult, simply because there is relatively little data on some of the key processes, such as the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) - sometimes erroneously known as the Gulf Stream - which carries heat northwards in the Atlantic.

Only within the last few years have researchers begun systematically deploying mobile floats and tethered buoys that will, in time, tell us how this circulation is changing.


Atlantic circulation

Enlarge Image

As a substitute for direct measurements of the MOC, the Kiel team used data going back 50 years from the Labrador Sea, where warm water gives up its heat to the atmosphere and sinks, before returning southward lower in the ocean.

Combining this ocean data with established models of global warming, they were able to generate a stream of model results that mimicked well temperatures observed in the recent past over the north Atlantic, western Europe and North America.

Looking forward, the model projects a weakening of the MOC and a resulting cooling of north Atlantic waters, which will act to keep temperatures in check around the world, much as the warming and cooling associated with El Nino and La Nina in the Pacific bring global consequences.

"We have to take into account that there are uncertainties in our model; but it does suggest a plateauing of temperatures, and then a continued rise," said Dr Keenlyside.

'No distraction'

The projection does not come as a surprise to climate scientists, though it may to a public that has perhaps become used to the idea that the rapid temperature rises seen through the 1990s are a permanent phenomenon.

"We've always known that the climate varies naturally from year to year and decade to decade," said Richard Wood from the UK's Hadley Centre, who reviewed the new research for Nature.

"We expect man-made global warming to be superimposed on those natural variations; and this kind of research is important to make sure we don't get distracted from the longer term changes that will happen in the climate (as a result of greenhouse gas emissions)."

Buoys. Image: Nerc
Ocean buoys should produce more data about the Atlantic oscillation

Dr Wood cautions that this kind of modelling is in its infancy; and once data can be brought directly from the Atlantic depths, that may change the view of how the AMO works and what it means for the global climate.

As with the unusually cold weather seen recently in much of the northern hemisphere - linked to La Nina conditions - he emphasises that even if the Kiel model proves correct, it is not an indication that the longer-term climate projections of the IPCC and many other institutions are wrong.

Michael Schlesinger, the US scientist who characterised the AMO in 1994, described the new model as "very exciting".

"No doubt we need to have more data from the deep ocean, and we don't have that at present," the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign researcher told BBC News.

"But imagine the payoff of knowing with some certainty what the next 10 years hold in terms of temperature and precipitation - the economic impacts of that would be significant."

Saturday May 3, 2008, 12:02 am
So, you quote the article that I linked to...just shows you don't even read counter arguments ROFL

Important things to note in your article:

1. "La Nina conditions have brought unseasonably cold weather to Europe"

That is to say that La Nina (a natural cooling event) is masking the human contribution (for now). The supporters of human climate change do not say we will never have a cold year or two (that is weather) but that the overall trend will be up - which it is. Now if your "cooling trend" would wipe out the warming over the last few decaided (consistently, not for a year or two), then you may have something...

2. "His group's projection diverges from other computer models only for about 15-20 years; after that, the curves come back together and temperatures rise."

So this model (which amittedly is only one model) SUPPORTS other models which indicate rapid human caused warming!!!

3. "However, temperatures will again be rising quickly by about 2020, they say."

So - this model indicates that this is a problem in the long run - if this model pans out it would be a good thing since it would give us more time to do what we need to do to reduce greenhouse gas emmissions (CO2, methane, and others).

4. "The projection does not come as a surprise to climate scientists, though it may to a public that has perhaps become used to the idea that the rapid temperature rises seen through the 1990s are a permanent phenomenon."

So, is this your proof that there has been no warming (and a cooling) over the last decaid???? Also, the coment seems rather appropriate at this juncture of the disucssions...

And rather than worring too much about ONE model of what MIGHT happen (though looking and many models may be helpful) I would focus on what is going on in the real world - look at the data I presented looking at the long-term trends... Is an ice free north pole (getting back to the article)the result of a cooling trend??? I think not LOL

Saturday May 3, 2008, 12:06 am
You can't wiggle out of it by blaming a natural cause ...BECAUSE THAT HAS BEEN THE POINT OF THE SKEPTICS ALL ALONG...THE WARMING IS NATURAL....SO IS THE COOLING.

IT IS A CYCLE WHICH IS BEYOND HUMAN CONTROL.