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Can Society Win the Race Against Climate Change? - With Video


Environment  (tags: climate-change, CO2emissions, conservation, destruction, ecosystems, energy, globalwarming, habitatdestruction, healthconditions, oceans, politics, pollution, Sustainabililty )

Kit
- 457 days ago - livescience.com
It's a difficult question, especially if one keeps up with climate science -- it is a sobering exercise to track our climate trajectory.



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Comments

Brian M. (202)
Friday September 20, 2013, 8:57 am
Human civilization as it is presently structured to favor corporate interests and/or the interests of the elites within a framework of exploitation and indoctrination to rabid consumerism of goods, services, and energy has an extremely low probability of survival. Our species over time has consistently shown itself to be adaptable, but usually only after extreme crisis has devastated our numbers. We now live in a technological era when we could demonstrate wisdom and start adapting now to stave off catastrophe, but our cultural, economic, and political cultures appear to be invested in exploiting profit until the very last minute...and by then, it will be too late to avoid the worst consequences of system's impact on this planet.

Point to ponder: the wealthy elites, the 1%, consume energy and resources at a rate several hundred times greater than the rest of us in the 99%. Overthrowing the elites then could be seen as one of the most environmentally conscious actions that humanity can take.
 

Kit B. (276)
Friday September 20, 2013, 9:03 am


People often ask me whether or not there is hope for winning the race against climate change. It's a difficult question, especially if one keeps up with climate science it is a sobering exercise to track our climate trajectory.

Three elements are especially frightening. The first has to do with how climate change manifests itself. Climate modelers always talk about "global average temperature rise," because that's the scientific norm they use to keep track of climate change. But it turns out that weather extremes may really be what matters. It's the 100-year drought coming every 10 years; the floods that, at times, cover more than half of countries like Thailand or Bangladesh; the threats to more than a billion people from rising oceans; the anticipated decline in food-crop yields in Africa. These are non-linear phenomena their impact is not straightforward to predict and a quick study of how average temperatures change shows that the extremes go crazy. Indeed, the extremes become the norm.

The second element is that manmade climate change unleashes new natural-system reactions that accelerate the process. One particularly worrisome example is the large quantity of frozen methane embedded in tundra in northern climes, including in Canada, Alaska and Russia. As the tundra thaws (and the Arctic is warming three times faster than the rest of the world), it will release vast amounts of methane, which is an extremely potent greenhouse gas. Thus, humanity's actions are triggering natural systems that amplify climate damage.

Finally, the mathematics underlying the carbon cycle have an unyielding character emissions today persist as concentrations for hundreds, even thousands, of years. It's actually harder, under most plausible pathways, to stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations at 650 ppm (an extremely dangerous carbon dioxide concentration) than if society acts earlier and stabilizes concentrations at 450 ppm. The reason: Carbon is cumulative in the atmosphere, and to stabilize concentrationsat any number means that annual emissions must go to near zero. And it is easier to get to zero from a relatively low number than from a higher number simple math.

What about natural gas can it save the day? I would argue that natural gas can be a bridge fuel, but only if it is developed with low levels of leakage. If natural gas leaks at even a 3 percent rate, it is as bad for the climate as coal. The other condition for natural gas is that it should not be used to displace renewable energy or efficiency if gas displaces zero-carbon energy resources, it is obviously bad for the environment. Thus, to make natural gas beneficial for climate change, it needs both environmental regulation to sharply limit methane leaks and utility rules that ensure it displaces coal, not clean power options.

Against all of that, where's the hope? Well, to beat a runaway threat, you need a runaway force for good. Fortunately, there is a spectacular boom in both efficiency technologies and renewable-energy technologies.

Solar prices have dropped by 80 percent in the last decade, and wind by half. Several nations have installed vast amounts of renewable energy in just a few years, and now get a quarter or more of their electricity from clean sources. At the same time, energy demand has peaked and is declining in many countries.

If we accelerate such trends in clean energy and energy efficiency, it is possible to land at a reasonable climate future. But, as the carbon math I described shows, a delay of even a decade or two can preclude a reasonable future.

This leaves society with three big challenges. First, manage fossil fuels. There's no question nations need to phase out coal, and similarly no question that people have to use natural gas much more intelligently.

Second, energy efficiency needs to dramatically increase. The most economically developed European nations produce twice as many goods per unit of energy as does the United States, and the United States is in turn twice as efficient as China. The less energy people waste, the more of a chance society has of landing at a reasonable climate future.

Finally, we need to make sure that new, low-cost, renewable-energy sources, like solar and wind, are deployed widely and rapidly. At the end of the day, that requires rethinking the way the electric-utility system is structured, and then rewriting the rules governing utilities. These huge industries need to become agents for good.

So, as I think about climate change and policy solutions, I'm still an optimist. I think society can win this one, or at least land at a reasonable future. But if we waste time, we close reasonable options. So it's time to pick up the pace on clean energy and that requires good policy.
****Excellent charts and graphs at VISIT SITE**

By: Hal Harvey | Op Ed | Live Science |

Hal Harvey is the CEO of Energy Innovation: Policy and Technology, an energy and environmental policy consulting firm. He contributed this article to LiveScience's Expert Voices: Op-Ed & Insights.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher. This version of the article was originally published on LiveScience.
 

Ben Oscarsito (356)
Friday September 20, 2013, 9:52 am
Well, 40 years ago we still had a chance...
 

JL A. (276)
Friday September 20, 2013, 11:30 am
Thanks for this illuminating yet sobering post Kit.
 

Kathleen R. (203)
Friday September 20, 2013, 12:09 pm
Thanks again Kit. I am getting close to despair regarding the world wide problem of climate change. It's right in front of us for all too see. But some people in power and the moneyed people choose not to see and use their power and money against solving the problem. Brian M. I especially like your response. Thanks
 

Gene Jacobson (255)
Friday September 20, 2013, 4:33 pm
I will have to come back to this, but my first answer is no, we can't. I think we have let loose more than we can ever pull back and beyond that, still, even with the ridiculous extremes we are seeing, no one, at least no one with the authority to create global change in attitudes and behavior is doing anything at all, most are not even talking about it unless it is to deny it. Perhaps watching the video and reading the article will change my mind. But people are still laughing at Al Gore and his An Inconvenient Truth with its undeniable proofs - and until that changes, this is not a fight we win.
 

pam w. (191)
Friday September 20, 2013, 5:38 pm
Let's face it....we have lost the Arctic! Under all that ice are massive pockets of methane. Do you know what methane released into the atmosphere will do?

Add to that the steadily increasing human population.....eating, polluting, ignoring.....

What could possibly save us?
 

Sara V. (0)
Friday September 20, 2013, 5:54 pm
Point to ponder: the wealthy elites, the 1%, consume energy and resources at a rate several hundred times greater than the rest of us in the 99%

I don't know about that - every house in the suburbs seems to have air conditioning and a forced air gas furnace. This leads to consumption that is far greater than Joe Averages in "undeveloped" nations. If we built houses out of insulating natural materials, we could cut our energy usage dramatically. There are a lot more Joe Average suburb dwellers than there are 1% mansionites.
 

Dave C. (227)
Friday September 20, 2013, 6:26 pm
we can only hope....and either continue to try and minimize the damage or "just give up".....I prefer the former....
 

Jennifer C. (169)
Saturday September 21, 2013, 4:37 am
Thanks.
 

Aaron Bouchard (145)
Saturday September 21, 2013, 6:40 am
noted thanks
 

Malgorzata Zmuda (184)
Saturday September 21, 2013, 12:25 pm
To będzie bardzo trudne zadanie.
 

Twyla Sparks (208)
Saturday September 21, 2013, 12:28 pm
noted Thanks
 

Daniela Marzola (49)
Saturday September 21, 2013, 12:59 pm
noted :-)
 

Shanti S. (0)
Saturday September 21, 2013, 1:33 pm
Thank you.
 

Past Member (0)
Saturday September 21, 2013, 2:56 pm
Organic Veg'n diet will save physical and spiritual problems.
 

Betty Kelly (4)
Saturday September 21, 2013, 3:10 pm
To win this race every action to correct must be employed and every Country and it's people; 1% & 99%. I can't imagine that happening so I don't think we will wovercome this threat.
 

Nimue Pendragon (275)
Sunday September 22, 2013, 5:56 pm
Noted, thanks.
 
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