Friday August 22, 2014, 12:10 am
Few things matter more to the future of freedom in America is keeping the Republican Reich from gaining control of the Senate. The following article was published by the blog run by Nate Silver, the only person to outdo my 2012 election predictions. We both predicted every Senate race accurately. He predicted every state in the Presidential election. I predicted all but one. I canít say, however, whether moving the blog from the New York Times to ESPN will effect his accuracy.
Friday August 22, 2014, 1:02 am
I'm definitely not the right person to comment, my mind has been too long in the European mold for any of the candidates' messages to appeal to me. But one thing is for sure: I keep my fingers, my toes and my knees crossed in the hope that the Democrats will hold on to the majority. I still can't fathom, even after two Bush elections, how America could end up with a Republican Congress, but hey... it would be the choice of the people, right? Yeah, right.
Friday August 22, 2014, 1:08 am
Hagen's up 2 in (45-43) in NC right now according to Hardball. I'm optimistic that the polling models are slightly off for THIS year. Dems especially minorities are motivated to come out to vote and take back some seats. I think that will matter in NC, Kentucky and Georgia.
Friday August 22, 2014, 5:27 am
There is real danger this year, Lona. The reason for that is the way things have played out as far as who's terms have been expiring. In 2012 and again in 2014 the majority of contested seats open have been Democratic incumbent. The 2010 Tea Party surprise in a year when most of the incumbents running were republican, I think that excess carried over to 2012 mitigated only by the Presidency also being in play. I think by now people understand just how insane the republican party has become and that the races will be more closely contested, still there are many more Democratic incumbents running. 2016, however, is another matter in that election ALL of those 2010 Tea Party republicans will be up for re-election and the majority of incumbents running will be heavily tilted Republican and the Presidency - things will change back then even if the Senate goes red for two years. I hope it doesn't, but Mitch has a plan if it does. A do nothing plan. Which will help the democrats in 2016 a LOT - because people will really see what it is like to have the Congress in full control by republicans, even LESS than the last two do nothing Congresses and I truly believe that is unacceptable to most of the country. And will be crystal clear in 2016.
Friday August 22, 2014, 6:24 am
If wishing has any effect, Mitch will fall and so will Nathan Deal.... but for me, I'd vote for Sasquatch before I'd vote for any Republican these days... There are already enough terrorists in the world without electing more to Congress.
Friday August 22, 2014, 6:56 am
Some of it will come down to who has a good get out the vote campaign element. People from other states can volunteer to help in the telephone effort in these tighter races.
I haven't seen a poll that was done since the news of the at least 20 fake news websites put up by the RNC came out--hope that element will backfire on the GOP.
Udall may be helped by the GMO labelling initiative being on the ballot bringing out voters in CO (and Merkley should be similarly helped in OR).
Friday August 22, 2014, 7:27 am
All three were good. I live in NC and Kay Hagan's Ad was perfect for this state. She is appealing to moderates on both sides without making inflammatory statements and I think in NC that is the best way to go. Our main problem is getting enough people to get off their butts and take the trouble to actually go vote. NC has been teetering on the fence and I think is slowly turning a shade of blue.
Friday August 22, 2014, 11:11 am
I'm with Winn! I believe Dems will pull through and not hand Congress over to the Repugs. We will not only hold the Senate but could take the House and get the hell rid of McConnell! We're all part of one conscioussness - true, UNWAVERING belief in something by a large group can cause it to happen! (Read the book "The Secret"). I choose to keep on believing in a Democratic Congress!!
Friday August 22, 2014, 1:51 pm
Oklahoma is so deeply red, I don't know if there is any hope for the Dems!
All I want to say is GET OUT AND VOTE!!! If you know someone that needs a ride to the polls, give them a RIDE!!! If they don't have a voter ID, make sure they try to get registered!!
Friday August 22, 2014, 2:26 pm
Noted. Thanks, TomCat. Like Chris, i choose to keep believing in a Democratic Congress, as well. To dwell on a republicon takeover is much too depressing! Makes no sense to court the Blues prematurely. As Spock would say, "it is illogical."
Friday August 22, 2014, 4:20 pm
I tend to agree with you on the Udall and Hagan ads. Hagan comes across as a DINO, lacking decisiveness, and actually believing that Republicanus/Teabaggers can be trusted, which they can't. Many of the Fourteener ads are in my opinion useless because you can't tell what the people are saying . . . too much ambient noise. Pryor's was ok and certainly bolstered Obamacare, but is that an election issue? Maybe in his area. But it might also leave the feeling with voters "Is he fit enough to serve?"
Whatever happens, Democrats have to step up to the plate and swing all homeruns. I hope Lundergan Grimes makes turtle soup in Kentucky!
Friday August 22, 2014, 9:49 pm
Sorry, I had time to read this this morning, but not to watch the ads or to comment. JL is right about the GMO labeling initiative, and it also may help that the crazies are having their fourth try at "personhood." Each time that has been on the ballot, the margin of defeat was larger than the previous one. I suspect that may bring women especially out to vote "NO!", "not only no but hell no" not being on the ballot. The GOP may even have figured that out, sence they have been running lying internet ads saying "Mark Udall's extremism hurts women." Through Google advertiser. (Every time I see one I report it as "inappropriate," my premise being that false advertising is always inappropriate.)
It sounds like Nate isn't worried about Tom Udall? I am perhaps even more worried about him than I am about Mark.
Saturday August 23, 2014, 9:52 pm
Thanks Tom for the post. Much to my dismay the Senate is up for grabs so we will have to work very hard to keep the chamber in the Dems hands. Great links and videos too. Read, viewed and noted.
Monday August 25, 2014, 2:47 pm
With all the blatant obstruction and
buffoonery from the "Conservative"
element since 2010, I simply can
not believe any one could possibly
vote other than Democratic.....