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Jobs Truthers Are Wrong: Unemployment Numbers Can't Be Cooked


US Politics & Gov't  (tags: conspiracy theorists, economy, jobs, propaganda, right wingelections )

Carrie
- 695 days ago - thedailybeast.com
Forget it, conspiracy theorists. Critics are accusing President Obama of manipulating the figures, but Bureau of Labor Statistics data can't be cooked. Jack Welch, Congressman Allen West, Joe Scarborough, a collection of Fox News hosts, and a motley crew



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Comments

Lois Jordan (55)
Friday October 5, 2012, 5:52 pm
Noted. I like the way this group was termed, "a motley crew"....people who spend their lives lying, cheating and manipulating others usually think everyone else is doing the same. That seems to be a big downfall for those of us who practice honesty...and believe most others do as well.
 

JL A. (275)
Friday October 5, 2012, 11:52 pm
You cannot currently send a star to Lois because you have done so within the last week. There are so many different people involved in checking, compiling,reviewing and releasing the data that it would be inconceivable that the data could be secretly cooked.
 

Edwin M. (366)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 11:30 am
It must be so exhausting for these conspiracy lunatics that keep searching for evidence of things that don't exist.
 

Molly S. (0)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 12:01 pm
ItIt is the Repulsicans who manipulate facts and statistics, not the BLS.
 

Thomas P. (468)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 12:14 pm
I'm surprised with and very disappointed with Joe Scarborough. He has been unusually unbiased in calling it down the middle with many of the Romney campaign flubs, but this is shameful. The statistics actually showed that workers came back into the job market (not leaving and becoming so-called discouraged workers), not the reverse, and the economy still added jobs. The rest of the comments were from those who have little credibility or intelligence (like current congressman Allen West, for example).
 

Christopher Fowler (84)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 12:32 pm
Numbers don't lie, even though liars often use numbers. The raw data is in and the liars are proven, once again, that they are wrong.
 

Chris C. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 12:35 pm
Allen West has to GO! NOW! He is absolutely out of his mind and needs to be in a mental hospital.

And I loved the way Chris Matthews nailed that old, decrepit, wheezy-voiced old-and-now-useless idiot, Jack Welch, to the wall for that STUPID, irresponsible, UNSUBSTANTIATED tweet! The ONLY thing the Repugs have left is yelling "conspiracy". How sad!
 

Chris C. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 12:42 pm
They ought to get rid of Joe Scarborough and give the show to Mika Brzezinski!
 

Past Member (0)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 12:47 pm
Unemployment numbers may not be "cookable" but they are susceptible to being "fudged", and every administration has "played" with the numbers since numbers started being kept.
 

Past Member (0)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 2:09 pm
Friggin right wing hates the truth. What's up with that?
 

Carrie B. (309)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 2:23 pm
The republicans have lost their big talking point against Obama, so they have to think of something to say. As usual, when the numbers aren't in their favor, it's a conspiracy. When the numbers are in their favor, they are accurate. What's with that? It's called denial!
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 2:46 pm
Garbage in and garbage out. The actual unemployment number is around 11%. You may not like that but it's the truth.

After taking a shellacking during the debate, our Excuse Maker In Chief steps boldly in front of a camera and tells the American people unemployment is down to 7.8%. He knew he was wrong. He knows that millions of Americans have simply stopped looking for jobs. Some are working part-time jobs.

Please don't be so naive to believe everything you read from the left wing biased media. Obama has no shame....to "pretend" that all is well and he's doing a great job after looking like an incompetent fool in the debate. When you put garbage information into a report like this you get garbage out.

Republicans haven't lost any talking points. It's the other way around. Obama couldn't debate Romney because he can't bring us four failed years. Did you see Obama's face when Romney mentioned that all of his "green" companies went belly up? Yes, that was taxpayer dollars wafting out into the air. Obama picked all losers.

If anyone is in denial it is Obama. Now that Ohio, Florida and Virginia are evening up for both candidates and Obama looked like Freddie The Freeloader during the debate don't look for more support for Obama. It's not going to happen.

Obama had his chance and he blew it early in 2009.
 

Dave C. (214)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 3:10 pm
sad what a country we become......hard time agreeing on much or accepting what we don't agree with.....
 

Joanne Dixon (38)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 3:11 pm
Don't feed the troll please.
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 3:29 pm
It depends on what data they were using. It's easy to get the numbers you are looking for when you aren't using all of the data available to you.
 

John B. (215)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 4:08 pm
Thanks Carrie for the article. Once again the GOP/Romney propaganda department rears it ugly head. Read and noted.
 

Chris C. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 4:08 pm
Diane O and Robert O - I have to say - those two MUST be related! Tee Hee!
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 4:31 pm
As intelligent adults, we all should know that it is important to know the data used. I've read studies where there was insufficient information from important sources that would've had a completely different outcome if used.

Left wing media bias dupes the liberals again. Anything to make Obama look good even at the eleventh hour. Meanwhile, swing states are leaning Romney. Obama had no ammunition during the debate...none, nada, nil so he has no choice now, to save face, than to accuse Romney of lying.

The truth always comes out. Obama was banking on the American people not being as smart as he thinks he is but, once again, he was wrong, just like he was on all the green companies he started that are now belly up compliments of the hard working taxpayers....poof....millions and millions of dollars down the drain. His $860 billion stimulus flop...poof....gone...the hard working taxpayers dollars down the drain. Meanwhile he doubled down on food stamps for Americans....threw them a bone. Oh, and those jobs he created with the stimulus??? Each one of them cost, yep, right again, the taxpayers $350,000 per job. Let's see...who to vote for....the astute businessman or the community organizer? I guess the American people will decide in one month.

 

Past Member (0)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 5:41 pm
Diane is right. The right wing has made this a real depression. Bush destroyed the world with a wave of a wand over wall street. They NEED to deceive us into thinking It's Obama's fault but can't because we're having a minimum recovery. The stated fault of the right. They said they wanted him to fail. They COUNT on the stupid to not figure out how treasonous their lack of action is.

I unbound you to be a free market. Left to police yourselves. History WILL look back on him as the 3rd anti christ. mabus = mr. bush Death and more death.
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 5:48 pm
No, Jason, you are wrong. What destroyed Wall Street were subprime loans. It started with Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton enhanced it LEANING on the banks to relax their lending practices so that minorities could own a home. It started with Jimmy Carter. After Clinton, nearly every brokerage company, Morgan Stanley etc, went into the mortgage loan business with 110% mortgage loans. If a person had a heart beat and a social security number they got a loan. In late 2005 John McCain put forth the GSH Reform bill to immediately regulate Fannie and Freddie. In early 2006, the democrats led by Barney and Dodd said, "No, our economy is fine...nothing wrong here...." and the bill did not pass. That's on the democrats. All of this fell on George Bush's watch. He had nothing to do with it. Had Barney Frank and Chris Dodd been smart enough they would've KNOWN that the subprime fever was ruining our economy and consequently millions of Americans found themselves in foreclosure. So know your facts before you deliver your post.

Obama has failed all by himself. George W. Bush was nowhere around when the democrats sold the $860 billion failed stimulus as a "job's bill." It was no more a job's bill than I am a democrat. Every single green company the taxpayer's financed thanks to Obama's incompetence has gone belly up...nope, George W. Bush was nowhere around.

You need some new material, Jason.
 

Jean C. (18)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 5:59 pm
Diane O. - good point - where are all those jobs from that stimulus "jobs bill"? All I know is that the place where I work is on 32 hours. Is that in the numbers? 20 percent of the people in my immediate family are unemployed, so much for a college degree. Many, many people I know have still not been able to find a job. Maybe they can get one of "them" stimulus jobs...
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 6:16 pm
It's remarkable, Jean. Very few jobs actually came from the stimulus. Those new green companies Obama picked as winners in the private sector? Those were the jobs that cost the taxpayers $350,000 per job...start up costs to open these companies. And, now, they are all unemployed. Every single company went belly up. And most of those green companies were outsourcing to China and other countries.

The problem with the liberals is that they aren't doing their homework. They need to know what they are talking about. They aren't getting the truth from the White House. The left wing biased media is feeding them Obama garbage and they've been duped by a teacher of The Cloward-Piven Strategy....a radical Marxist-socialist.

Jean, many people are unemployed but have stopped looking for jobs. When Mitt Romney is elected he'll do exactly what Ronald Reagan did soon after he was inaugurated....he'll turn immediately to lifting our our small businesses with 0% government backed business loans, no penalty for not having health insurance and these businesses can then begin hiring and growing their companies again. The jobs that he'll bring to all of us on the pipeline and in other energy jobs will be massive. America is looking for a leader. We haven't had a leader in four years. All we've had is a lazy, big talking, legacy healthcare seeking, incompetent president who got his butt kicked in the debate this week. Oh, yes, and he signed the Lily Ledbetter Act.

 

Past Member (0)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 6:42 pm
Wrong, Diane. Every aspect of this depression started with Reagan deregulation, then Bush's. You're just looking at how the right wing cleans up it's mess. Flood the net with lies so the truth gets drowned out.
The other push down the hill was tax cuts for the rich. We now live in a rust bucket with pot holes, in need of repair and the right won't let our government create jobs it needs to.
You can see where these troubles began in this tax chart.
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/Tax%20Rates%20and%20Revenue.jpg

Our economy was solid before 1982. Do you remember?
 

Past Member (0)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 6:45 pm
What the republicans are keeping us from while the rich hoard more money than they'll ever need...

How Did We Know The Stimulus Was Too Small? - NYTimes.com
krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/​...we-know-the-stimulus-was-too-small

Jul 28, 2010 · Those of us who say that the stimulus was too small are often accused of after-the-fact rationalization: you said this would work, but now that it hasn’t ...

Why The Stimulus Is Too Small - Breaking News and Opinion on …
www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/09/​is-stimulus-too-small_n_​165076.html

Mar 11, 2009 · There's a hurricane coming. Meteorologists aren't sure what category it will be but know it will be the worst in generations. There's a warehouse full of ...

Stimulus Too Small - Falling Short on the Economic Stimulus - …
online.wsj.com/article/​SB10001424052748704055104574652314270243466...

Jan 20, 2010 · Why has the economy been so much worse than experts predicted? Blame it on the fact that the economic stimulus was too small, poorly targeted and left no ...


Bush screwed us bad! If Obama wins, his tax cuts expire.
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:01 pm
Jason, you are wrong again. Regulations that protect free enterprise are good, however, too much federal regulation administered by federal bureaucrats leads to corruption, political favoritism and crony capitalism. Federal regulation tends to be a blunt instrument of one size fits all across the country whereas this nation's strength lies in state and local regulation much closer to the economic challenges and opportunities of the diverse regions of the United States. Reagan had a bead on that because he was for small government and let the private sector thrive.
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:04 pm
Stimulus too small? No company in the United States of America is too big to fail. When a bank is poised to fail they'll enter into a merger with another bank. The auto industry the same. The taxpayers should never be responsible for poor business practices with inefficient CEO's and poor decisions. So, you are saying we needed more of a stimulus? Why? So that Obama could've picked more private sector companies as winners paid for by the taxpayers? We've all witnessed what that has done. They all went belly up.

Next question?
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:12 pm
The truth of the matter is with regard to Katrina, the governor and/or the mayor have to ask for federal assistance in order for it to be given. Ray Neigan dithered, did not ask for FEMA assistance and did not order evacuation of the below sea levels of New Orleans until it was too late. In no way was it Bush's fault. It was a local issue and federal and state national guard resources were provided in a timely manner but local officials were incompetent in managing the emergency. This led to the debacle in the stadium that led to a long term disaster in Houston, Texas when the generosity of that city hosted the displaced New Orleans people for an extended period of time. On e the money was paid out to those people who lost their homes, to some not all, was misspent on items other than rebuilding their homes.

This had nothing to do with George W. Bush. Know the facts, Jason. Please, do a bit of your own research.
 

Michael Sandstrom (306)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:20 pm
You do not know the "truth" Diane, it is evident by what you say
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:21 pm
Michael, that is your personal opinion which is biased through left wing eyes. I appreciate good comments but I appreciate them more when they are accurate. Your comments were simply not accurate.
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:26 pm
Carrie, as much as I appreciate you taking the time to make the above post, I will direct you to Rex Nutting's article on "The Job Numbers Stink."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/were-sick-and-tired-of-stinky-jobs-numbers-2012-05-04?siteid=rss&rss=1
 

Jean C. (18)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:28 pm
Jason R. - About hoarding money - ever have dinner with a billionaire sitting at your table? There's some kind of eeriness about them...it's like they have no soul... Trust me, the ultra-wealthy may have a lot of money, but the ones that I know are lacking in a true inner peace.

 

Past Member (0)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:32 pm
Fox viewers...the entire right wing...are thee most misinformed people there are! That's a tripple proven fact. You can't belong to that crowd and tell others you're right, Dianne. That's insanity at work!

Fox News Viewers Are The Most Misinformed: Study
UPDATE: Fox News senior vice president for news Michael Clemente has responded to the study which found that his network's viewers are more misinformed about American political issues than any other channel. In a statement to the New York Times' Brian Stelter, Clemente disparaged the ...
huffingtonpost.com/2010/12/17/fox-news-viewers-are-the-_n_... More results

Study Confirms That Fox News Makes You Stupid | Alternet
A new survey of American voters shows that Fox News viewers are significantly more misinformed than consumers of news from other sources.
alternet.org/story/149193/study_confirms_that_fox_ne... More results
University Study: Fox Viewers More Misinformed - John A ...

Fox News criticized the University of Maryland for its study finding daily Fox viewers are misinformed.
usnews.com/opinion/blogs/john-farrell/2010/12/22/u... More results

Univ. of Maryland study finds Fox News viewers to be ...
A new study released by the University of Maryland shows American voters to be vastly misinformed. Even worse, the same study points to the media as the cause of much of this misinformation. The study involved a poll of 616 self-reported voters in the week after the 2010 midterm ...
examiner.com/article/univ-of-maryland-study-finds-fo... More results

Fox News Viewers are the Most Misinformed: A Seventh Study ...
Fox News Viewers are the Most Misinformed: A Seventh Study Arrives to Prove It — and Vindicate Jon Stewart! By Climate Guest Blogger on Nov 22, 2011 at 11:38 am
thinkprogress.org/climate/2011/11/22/374434/fox-news-view...


Do you need more results or does it cement the lies as another study finds?
 

Carrie B. (309)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:33 pm
As usual when confronted with facts Diane simply ignores them. Diane,you are directing us to an article written five months ago by the same person who wrote the article yesterday, which I posted in its entirety.
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:34 pm
Well, the truth is that over the past four years large corporations have stopped hiring and stopped growing their companies. They have been stock piling their profits and sitting tight waiting for another "big boot" to fall on them. When people save money, large corporations included, it doesn't go into the economy. Obama has delivered a bucket load of uncertainty to these companies and to middle class Americans that it is far better to save and pay off debt than to circulate any money into an uncertain economy.

All of this, of course, is at Obama's feet, not George W. Bush's feet as Obama wants you to believe. It's Obama's incompetency that he wants to blame on George W. Bush. That dog won't hunt.
 

Carrie B. (309)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:35 pm
Excellent piece of rationalization Diane. Too bad it isn't true.
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:35 pm
Carrie, I responded to your post with another article that Rex wrote that the "Job Numbers Stink." Read it and then let's talk again.
 

Carrie B. (309)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:37 pm
Diane the article was written five months ago. What is it you don't understand about that?
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:37 pm
Do your research, Carrie, and you'll find that it is true. Or, better yet, post something that refutes what I have posted. I believe that is the way it is done. Don't believe what I've posted? Fine. Show me where I'm wrong.
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:37 pm
And, yes, Carrie, I do like facts. All of the facts.
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:39 pm
The article may have been written five months ago but it's important to know how this Rex person thinks. He is offering his personal opinion based on his own personal selective resources and depending on what day of the week it is, and how he feels, he writes an article, a personal opinion article.
 

Carrie B. (309)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:39 pm
I just did give you the facts, but as usual when you don't like them because they do not support your personal agenda, you just ignore them.
 

Diane O. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:43 pm
Carrie, again, I appreciate the effort you put into this but Rex is a bit wishy washy in his assessment of the job market under Obama. Before you showcase an article it's always good to do a bit of research on that person. Many opinion pieces are a good read and I enjoy them as much as anyone else, but beyond that it's always good to know more about the person writing the article, why he/she writes the article and their political views.

I didn't ignore you. I simply did a bit of my own research in order to respond to you.
 

Carrie B. (309)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 7:48 pm
Diane, a few more facts for you:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the official unemployment rate for September was 7.8%, down from 8.1% in August. There were also 114,000 net jobs added during the month of September. This is the first time that the official unemployment rate has been lower than 8% since Barack Obama became President, and with the 2012 presidential election one month from today, it is worth mentioning that no president since Franklin Roosevelt has been re-elected with an official unemployment rate higher than 8%.

“This morning, we found out that the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since I took office. More Americans entered the workforce, more people are getting jobs. Every month reminds us that we've still got too many of our friends and neighbors who are looking for work, and there are too many middle-class families struggling to pay the bills. But today's news certainly is not an excuse to try to talk down the economy to score a few political points. It's a reminder that this country has come too far to turn back now,” said President Obama of the new unemployment statistics during a rally at George Mason University.

“There were fewer jobs created this month than last month. The reason it's come down this year is primarily due to the fact that more and more people have stopped looking for work. It looks like unemployment is getting better, but the truth is, if the same share of people were participating in the workforce today as on the day that President Obama got elected, why, our unemployment rate would be around 11 percent.That's the real reality of what is happening out there. This can't go on. ...When I'm president of the United States, that unemployment rate is going to come down not because people are giving up and dropping out of the workforce, but because we are creating more jobs. I will create more jobs and get America working again,” Republican nominee Mitt Romney said while campaigning in Arlington, VA.

Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green nominee Jill Stein have yet to make statements concerning the report.

The BLS keeps track of six unemployment rates, which are defined as follows and given without seasonal adjustments:

U1: Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force. This rate is 4.2% for September 2012, down from 4.3% in August.
U2: Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force. This rate is 4.0% for September 2012, down from 4.4% in August.
U3: Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate). This rate is 7.6% for September 2012, down from 8.2% in August.
U4: U3 plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers. “Discouraged workers” are those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no jobs are available. This rate is 8.0% for September 2012, down from 8.7% in August.
U5: U4 plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. “Marginally attached” workers are those who would like and are able to work, but have not looked for a job recently. This rate is 9.0% for September 2012, down from 9.7% in August.
U6: U5 plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. This rate is 14.2% for September 2012, down from 14.7% in August.

As people who are employed part-time typically work about half as much as people who work full-time, it may be useful to consider a “U5.5,” defined as the arithmetic mean of the U5 and U6 numbers. This measure would thus count people who work part-time but wish to work full-time as “half-employed.” This rate is 11.6% for September 2012, down from 12.2% in August.

The BLS revised the Current Population Survey, which gathers the data needed to determine these rates, in 1994. Among the changes made, the U3 rate was named the new “official” unemployment rate, instead of the U5 rate.

The use of the U3 as the official definition exposes some holes in the BLS's thinking, because according to them, the following are true:

A person who loses a full-time job but spends one hour each week mowing a lawn for pay is considered employed.
A person who simply expresses interest in having a job is classified as unemployed.
“Discouraged workers” are not classified as unemployed or even as part of the labor force.
A sharp decrease in a worker's wages when forced to change jobs is not accounted for.

What this means is that the official unemployment rate can fluctuate in a recovering economy, as discouraged workers (who are not considered to be part of the labor force in the U3 measurement) who re-enter the labor force and do not find jobs will cause the U3 rate to spike. It also means that the U3 rate will go down when people give up looking for jobs, although this was not the case in September, as 211,000 people re-entered the labor force.

 

Past Member (0)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 8:36 pm
Well, the truth is...Well the facts are...blah, blah, blah.....OMG!!! lol This is so insane!
 

Michael Carney (209)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 8:42 pm
Well, Diane sounds like a parrot for Fox News, and if you don't agree with her, it's you who are wrong...No chance she may be wrong...
 

Craig Zimmerman (86)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 9:25 pm
I believe that the actual unemployment number is at least 10 percent. The official government statistics are nonsense.
 

Chris C. (149)
Saturday October 6, 2012, 9:54 pm
Thank God Diane O finally put a sock in it!
 

Diane O. (149)
Sunday October 7, 2012, 5:09 am
Remember, Carrie, a study is only as good as the information that is fed into it. Period.

I know you folks can't handle the truth so you ignore it. However, the unemployment number is around 11%.
 

Past Member (0)
Sunday October 7, 2012, 10:13 pm
Reagan/Bush screwed us.

http://www.jaysrants.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/tax_rate-chart550.gif
 

Carol H. (229)
Monday October 8, 2012, 5:13 am
noted, truth is truth!!
 

Beverly C. (0)
Thursday November 1, 2012, 11:53 pm
Thanks For This Definitive Information.
 
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